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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1539 Gold Hills Dr

1539 Gold Hills Dr

Redding, CA 96003

$659,000

4 bd · 3 ba · 2,641 sqft · Listed 18d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2003

Sqft

2,641

Lot sqft

12,197

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-11T16:07:05.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$29,377

ADR

$162

Occupancy

50%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$2,694

Confidence

Low (-23.82), 6 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$6,885$12,745$27,618
  • Sunny Pines | Pool & Spa+Central

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $94,126ADR $479Occ ≈ 54%4.9★ (25)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Escape | Dog Friendly + Hot Tub + Fire Pit

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $7,056ADR $588Occ ≈ 3%4.8★ (37)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Prime Estate: 4BR Spacious Luxury & Forest Views

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $3,739ADR $233Occ ≈ 4%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Pool Hot Tub Fire Pit Pet Friendly BBQ 4BR

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $6,713ADR $555Occ ≈ 3%—

    Booking

  • Pool/HotYoga/Cold Plunge/Sauna

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $25,564ADR $449Occ ≈ 16%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • 4BR Retreat - Pool & Sauna on site

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $29,671ADR $314Occ ≈ 26%4.5★ (13)

    Airbnb

  • Upscale Spacious Home Best Neighbhd 30 Day Minimum

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $12,745ADR $133Occ ≈ 26%—

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$29,377

NOI

$5,847

Cash flow /mo

-$3,064

Cash needed

$220,110

Cash-on-cash

-16.7%

ROE (yr 1)

-5.8%

Cap rate

0.9%

DSCR

0.14

Year-1 write-off

$127,807

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$40,898

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$36,766
  • Principal paydown$4,312
  • Appreciation at%$19,770
ROE-5.8%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)12.8%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,875
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$881
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,469
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$8,238
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,855

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$164,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$26,360
  • Furnishing (bought new)$29,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$40,898

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$542,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$97,000 · 18%

Year-1 deduction

$128,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,000

Land 18% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $444,000 over 39 years · new furniture $29,000

Based on: 2,641 sq ft, built 2003, 4 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (patio, game room, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $102,000 in year 1 (13% short-life, $32,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$88,700
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,600 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $9,200
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $11,900 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $9,400
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,600 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $3,700
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $1,200
  • Window coverings (26)default

    $6,500 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $5,100
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (67% of floors)listing

    $11,300 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $9,000
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,000 new × 54% good × 1.98 allocation

    $9,600
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,500 new × 54% good × 1.98 allocation

    $5,800
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $6,400
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$37,600
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $13,300 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $13,200
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,200 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $10,100
  • Patioslisting

    $11,900 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $11,800
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,600 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $2,600
Building, 39-year$444,500
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $286,600 new × 62% good × 1.98 allocation

    $349,700
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $29,800 new × 54% good × 1.98 allocation

    $31,800
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $30,700 new × 54% good × 1.98 allocation

    $32,900
  • HVACdefault

    $29,800 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $23,500
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $4,500
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $2,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$88,700$37,600$1,400$127,800
2$0$0$11,400$11,400
3$0$0$11,400$11,400
4$0$0$11,400$11,400
5$0$0$11,400$11,400
6+$0$0$397,500$397,500
Total$88,700$37,600$444,500$570,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.