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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1193 S Sheephorn Rd

1193 S Sheephorn Rd

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$875,000

4 bd · 3 ba · Listed 31d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyNegative cash flow

Year built

1964

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

9,384

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-08-29T04:30:59.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$51,699

ADR

$380

Occupancy

37%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$10,561

Confidence

Med (52.72), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$35,699$43,401$56,137
  • Rustic Bear Mountain Retreat • Large Deck • Spa

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 141 ft

    Revenue $40,733ADR $387Occ ≈ 29%4.8★ (30)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New! Bearadise ~ Chic Mountain Retreat

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 305 ft

    Revenue $59,669ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.8★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Central AC | Firepit | PoolTable | Airhockey | Spa

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 430 ft

    Revenue $93,190ADR $447Occ ≈ 57%4.9★ (198)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Retreat | Hot Tub+A/C+Fire Pit+Near Lake

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 453 ft

    Revenue $88,700ADR $324Occ ≈ 75%4.9★ (105)

    Airbnb

  • A-frame, Hot Tub, Game Room, Fireplace, Deck, View

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $79,717ADR $486Occ ≈ 45%5★ (141)

    Airbnb

  • Moonlit Chalet: Hot Tub, Huge Deck w/ Fire Pit.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $62,078ADR $777Occ ≈ 22%5★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beautiful Views! Hot Tub! Game Room! Piano!

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $46,413ADR $369Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (94)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Close to Ski Resorts! Game Room! Pet Friendly!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $34,189ADR $295Occ ≈ 32%4.6★ (47)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Slope Views! Near Bear Mountain! Pool Table! BBQ!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $42,137ADR $716Occ ≈ 16%4.5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Halfpipe Lodge - 4 bd/4 bth (8 beds) w/spa.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $52,094ADR $496Occ ≈ 29%5★ (72)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 50 comps
  • Fenced Yard! Dog Friendly! Gametable!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,168ADR $307Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (139)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stunning Modern Mountain Gem w/Game Room & Wet Bar

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,473ADR $1,278Occ ≈ 6%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Le Vonde Chalet - Luxury log-style, Hot Tub, Game Room, Fire Pit, Walk to Slopes

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $38,056ADR $835Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • Big Bear Lake Cabin w/ Hot Tub < 1 Mi to Skiing!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $70,210ADR $487Occ ≈ 39%4.8★ (126)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pine & Paw | Hot Tub, Sauna, EV, Media Room

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,918ADR $1,041Occ ≈ 4%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hasselhof Mountain Cabin

    Chalet · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $39,329ADR $566Occ ≈ 19%5★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • Game Room!HOT TUB!Pet Friendly!Reverse Floor Plan!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $62,712ADR $433Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (90)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fireplace + Game Room w/ Pool Table + Near Slopes

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,787ADR $358Occ ≈ 27%4.7★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Charming Cabin Getaway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $4,623ADR $269Occ ≈ 5%3.5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to ski resort: Indoor Jacuzzi, Sauna, games.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $38,196ADR $556Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (183)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxe Moonridge Log Cabin | Hot Tub + Games + AC!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,206ADR $456Occ ≈ 6%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • NEW A-Frame 4BR | Hot Tub, Mtn Views, Game Loft

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $70,929ADR $416Occ ≈ 47%5★ (24)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet Friendly! Views of Bear Mtn! Fenced Yard!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $43,462ADR $354Occ ≈ 34%4.6★ (66)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury Log Cabin | Hot Tub, Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $55,460ADR $879Occ ≈ 17%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear hideaway cabin

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,368ADR $326Occ ≈ 11%4.8★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Family Cabin with Arcade Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $35,669ADR $564Occ ≈ 17%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Grand Mountain Views, Fenced Dog Yard, Hot Tub, AC

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $38,330ADR $448Occ ≈ 23%5★ (73)

    Airbnb

  • Ski Slope Views - 2 Decks, Fire Pit, Mini Arcade

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $29,638ADR $337Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (186)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Moonridge Chateau • Hot Tub + Game Room • Escape

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $55,686ADR $508Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (24)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious - New Spa W/ Pool Table

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $21,873ADR $466Occ ≈ 13%4.9★ (47)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Ski&Zoo Chalet HotTub/4BB/BBQ/Fr Pit/AC*

    Chalet · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $77,383ADR $529Occ ≈ 40%5★ (58)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Mountain Chalet w/ views, Hot Tub, and Games!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $55,770ADR $790Occ ≈ 19%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Drey-Gorgeous Big Bear Mountain Views

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $55,632ADR $514Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (80)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Wildwood Designer Glamp w Hot Tub & Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 15 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $50,852ADR $684Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Great Escape: Hot Tub! Air Hockey Table!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,355ADR $240Occ ≈ 32%4.4★ (109)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Top of the Grove: Spa! Arcade Game! Pet Friendly!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $44,909ADR $426Occ ≈ 29%4.8★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonlight Memories Jacuzzi, Theatre, Dogs Okay!

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $15,475ADR $342Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • Hot Tub & Game Room: Spacious Big Bear Lake Cabin

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $75,590ADR $550Occ ≈ 38%4.2★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Mountain House - Game Room, Arcade Games, Foosball, Deck, BBQ

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,925ADR $576Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • Ozzy's Retreat, Hot Tub, 4 Bdr, Sleeps 8

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $48,474ADR $274Occ ≈ 48%4.8★ (96)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • LOWER Moonridge HOT TUB GAME ROOM SKI Slopes CLOSE

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $75,429ADR $571Occ ≈ 36%—

    Booking

  • Chipmunk Treehouse #1983

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $63,357ADR $1,508Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • Chipmunk Treehouse Resort Chalet at Big Bear

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $45,038ADR $512Occ ≈ 24%3.7★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hillside Hideaway Big Bear House

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $35,890ADR $557Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • Dog-friendly cabin, picnic table, BBQ, game room, two kitchens and more!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $6,131ADR $437Occ ≈ 4%—

    Vrbo

  • Dog-friendly cabin, picnic table, BBQ, game room, two kitchens and more!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,864ADR $473Occ ≈ 2%3.4★ (3)

    Vrbo

  • Log Cabin w/ Game Room & AC Near Bear Mountain -BI

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,958ADR $1,774Occ ≈ 6%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hilltop Haven: Lake & Mtn Views! Hot Tub! Games!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $56,259ADR $414Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (197)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 1 Mi to Slopes: Big Bear Lake 'Alpen Haus' w/ Spa

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $43,340ADR $498Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (57)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Villa Cozy Grove-Hot Tub, Views, Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $47,566ADR $394Occ ≈ 33%4.5★ (83)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$51,699

NOI

$18,936

Cash flow /mo

-$3,137

Cash needed

$253,750

Cash-on-cash

-14.8%

ROE (yr 1)

-2.2%

Cap rate

2.2%

DSCR

0.33

Year-1 write-off

$208,940

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$66,861

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$37,645
  • Principal paydown$5,726
  • Appreciation at%$26,250
ROE-2.2%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)24.1%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$10,340
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,551
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,585
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$10,938
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$4,463

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$218,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$35,000
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$66,861

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$702,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$206,000 · 29%

Year-1 deduction

$209,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$67,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $496,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~2,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1964, 4 bd / 3 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, patio, fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $126,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $40,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$95,000
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,100 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $15,500
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $12,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $5,900
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $600
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $2,100
  • Window coverings (24)default

    $6,000 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $8,400
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (50% of floors)listing

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $10,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,600 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $12,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,200 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $7,300
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, washer, dryer)listing

    $5,900 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $8,200
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $23,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $9,200
  • Game-room equipment (used)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $2,400
15-year land improvements$111,300
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,200 new × 50% good × 3.49 allocation

    $17,700
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,800 new × 50% good × 3.49 allocation

    $17,100
  • Patioslisting

    $10,800 new × 50% good × 3.49 allocation

    $18,900
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $27,000 new × 50% good × 3.49 allocation

    $47,200
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.49 allocation

    $10,500
Building, 39-year$496,000
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $260,300 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $363,700
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $27,000 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $37,800
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $27,700 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $38,700
  • HVACdefault

    $27,000 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $37,800
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $10,800
  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 3.49 allocation

    $7,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$95,000$111,300$2,700$208,900
2$0$0$12,700$12,700
3$0$0$12,700$12,700
4$0$0$12,700$12,700
5$0$0$12,700$12,700
6+$0$0$442,500$442,500
Total$95,000$111,300$496,000$702,300

The building's share of the price ($691,000) is 3.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($198,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.