Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

19893 Welbula Dr

Redding, CA 96003

$420,000

3 bd · 3 ba · 1,396 sqft · Listed 18d ago

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Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1983

Sqft

1,396

Lot sqft

82,328

HOA / mo

Furnished

List date

2026-09-11T23:15:00.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$34,222

ADR

$179

Occupancy

52%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,089

Confidence

Low (11.13), 6 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$8,991$36,449$54,911

‘Mtn Gate Guest House’ ~ 6 Mi to Shasta Lake!
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $27,196ADR $213Occ ≈ 35%5★ (43)
Airbnb Vrbo Booking
Beautiful Country House.
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.3 mi
Revenue $57,981ADR $289Occ ≈ 55%4.9★ (148)
Airbnb Vrbo
Hot Tub, Dog-Friendly Yard! 3-Acre Redding Retreat
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 1.6 mi
Revenue $45,702ADR $239Occ ≈ 52%4.7★ (21)
Airbnb Vrbo Booking
Romantic Farmhouse 10 min. to Shasta Lake .
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 1.7 mi
Revenue $544ADR $272Occ ≈ 1%4.5★ (6)
Airbnb Vrbo
Redding Retreat Ranch
House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 2.1 mi
Revenue $82,274ADR $520Occ ≈ 43%4.9★ (223)
Airbnb Vrbo
15 min from beautiful Shasta Lake. With lots of wildlife on gorgeous property.
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 2.1 mi
Revenue $2,923ADR $0Occ ≈ ——
Vrbo

Listing	Size	Revenue (12 mo)	ADR	Occ ≈	Rating	Distance	Links
‘Mtn Gate Guest House’ ~ 6 Mi to Shasta Lake! House	3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5	$27,196	$213	35%	5★ (43)	0.3 mi	Airbnb Vrbo Booking
Beautiful Country House. House	3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8	$57,981	$289	55%	4.9★ (148)	1.3 mi	Airbnb Vrbo
Hot Tub, Dog-Friendly Yard! 3-Acre Redding Retreat House	3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9	$45,702	$239	52%	4.7★ (21)	1.6 mi	Airbnb Vrbo Booking
Romantic Farmhouse 10 min. to Shasta Lake . House	3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9	$544	$272	1%	4.5★ (6)	1.7 mi	Airbnb Vrbo
Redding Retreat Ranch House	3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10	$82,274	$520	43%	4.9★ (223)	2.1 mi	Airbnb Vrbo
15 min from beautiful Shasta Lake. With lots of wildlife on gorgeous property. House	3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6	$2,923	$0	—	—	2.1 mi	Vrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing

Term

Purchase priceDown payment %30-yr rate %Already furnishedTax bracket

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$34,222

NOI

$13,363

Cash flow /mo

-$1,150

Cash needed

$141,300

Cash-on-cash

-9.8%

ROE (yr 1)

1.1%

Cap rate

3.2%

DSCR

0.49

Year-1 write-off

$108,514

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$34,724

Year-1 return on equity

Cash flow (annual)-$13,796
Principal paydown$2,748
Appreciation at%$12,600

ROE1.1%

ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)25.7%

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

Management (20% of revenue)$6,844
Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,027
Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,711
Utilities & supplies$4,200
HOA$0
Property tax$5,250
Insurance (STR-rated)$2,457

Cash needed to close

Down payment (25%)$105,000
Closing costs (4.0%)$16,800
Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

Tax shield @ 32%$34,724

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$332,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$88,000 · 27%

Year-1 deduction

$109,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$35,000

Land 21% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $244,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,396 sq ft, built 1983, 3 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fence, fireplace, flooring types, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $84,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $27,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$74,200

Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$8,900 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$9,900
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$7,200 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$8,100
Decorative trimdefault
$2,400 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$2,700
Mirrorsdefault
$500 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$500
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$1,300
Window coverings (14)default
$3,500 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$3,900
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (67% of floors)listing
$6,000 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$6,700
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$6,900 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$7,700
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,200 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$4,700
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$9,100
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
$19,500

15-year land improvements$33,500

Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$7,700 new × 50% good × 2.80 allocation
$10,800
Landscaping (typical)default
$7,500 new × 50% good × 2.80 allocation
$10,400
Patiosdefault
$1,400 new × 50% good × 2.80 allocation
$1,900
Decks & porches (attached)default
$1,400 new × 50% good × 2.80 allocation
$1,900
Fencinglisting
$6,000 new × 50% good × 2.80 allocation
$8,400

Building, 39-year$244,000

Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$150,900 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$169,000
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$15,700 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$17,500
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$15,000 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$16,800
HVACdefault
$15,700 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$17,600
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$3,000 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$3,400
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 2.80 allocation
$2,900
Septic systemlisting
$12,000 new × 50% good × 2.80 allocation
$16,800

About the property

Sold furnishedGame roomHot tubPoolDeckDrivewayLandscapingFencedIrrigationLong-term rental (27.5-yr)Carpet / vinyl / laminate %Placed in serviceClosing costs $ (adds to basis)Land %Bonus depreciation %

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year	5-yr	15-yr	Building	Total
1	$74,200	$33,500	$800	$108,500
2	$0	$0	$6,300	$6,300
3	$0	$0	$6,300	$6,300
4	$0	$0	$6,300	$6,300
5	$0	$0	$6,300	$6,300
6+	$0	$0	$218,200	$218,200
Total	$74,200	$33,500	$244,000	$351,700

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.