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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

861 Dawson Ct

861 Dawson Ct

Redding, CA 96003

$449,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,087 sqft · Listed 11d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1981

Sqft

2,087

Lot sqft

16,117

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-18T04:24:17.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$54,443

ADR

$200

Occupancy

75%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$11,726

Confidence

Low (27.12), 14 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,420$41,105$71,367
  • Relax & Refresh Family Pool House w/ BBQ

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 463 ft

    Revenue $68,137ADR $236Occ ≈ 79%5★ (280)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The ARK Villa | Mountain Views | Pool

    Villa · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $72,443ADR $447Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (103)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern 4BR Retreat | Hot Tub • BBQ • Boat Parking

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $78,116ADR $363Occ ≈ 59%5★ (248)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Holiday Retreat

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $36,571ADR $224Occ ≈ 45%5★ (289)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Charming Ridge House

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $3,360ADR $112Occ ≈ 8%—

    Airbnb

  • *Pool+Lassen Views *entire house* 7beds, 4bedrooms

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.6 mi

    Revenue $43,815ADR $284Occ ≈ 42%4.9★ (18)

    Airbnb

  • Relax & Unwind | 4BR - Hot Tub - All You Need

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.6 mi

    Revenue $81,959ADR $292Occ ≈ 77%5★ (138)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hanland House

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.7 mi

    Revenue $100,313ADR $353Occ ≈ 78%5★ (4)

    Booking

  • Large Home / privacy/desirable neighborhood /Views

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 1.7 mi

    Revenue $7,233ADR $183Occ ≈ 11%5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Gather Relax & Explore | Beautiful, Spacious 4BR

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.9 mi

    Revenue $13,200ADR $168Occ ≈ 22%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

Show all 14 comps
  • The Refuge at Diamond Ridge | Pool and Spa

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 1.9 mi

    Revenue $38,395ADR $494Occ ≈ 21%4.9★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Your Central Redding Retreat

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.9 mi

    Revenue $55,554ADR $222Occ ≈ 69%5★ (53)

    Airbnb

  • Charming and Spacious Renovated 1940’s Home

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.9 mi

    Revenue $1,209ADR $0Occ ≈ —5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain view oasis

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 2.1 mi

    Revenue $22,080ADR $191Occ ≈ 32%—

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$54,443

NOI

$27,433

Cash flow /mo

-$133

Cash needed

$153,210

Cash-on-cash

-1.0%

ROE (yr 1)

9.7%

Cap rate

6.1%

DSCR

0.94

Year-1 write-off

$173,873

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$55,639

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$1,601
  • Principal paydown$2,938
  • Appreciation at%$13,470
ROE9.7%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)46.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$10,889
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,633
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,722
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$5,613
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,627

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$112,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$17,960
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$55,639

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$379,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$150,000 · 40%

Year-1 deduction

$174,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$56,000

Land 16% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $229,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 2,087 sq ft, built 1981, 4 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (pool, deck, fence, fireplace, flooring types).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $134,000 in year 1 (29% short-life, $43,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$65,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,400 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $7,700
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,500 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $6,300
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,700 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $2,700
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $200
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $1,100
  • Window coverings (21)default

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $3,900
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (50% of floors)listing

    $6,700 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $5,000
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $6,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,900 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $3,600
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $6,000
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$107,400
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,500 new × 50% good × 1.87 allocation

    $8,800
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,100 new × 50% good × 1.87 allocation

    $8,500
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,100 new × 50% good × 1.87 allocation

    $1,900
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $23,500 new × 50% good × 1.87 allocation

    $21,900
  • Pool (in-ground)listing

    $65,000 new × 50% good × 1.87 allocation

    $60,600
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 1.87 allocation

    $5,600
Building, 39-year$228,500
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $226,200 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $168,800
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $23,500 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $17,500
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $23,700 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $17,700
  • HVACdefault

    $23,500 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $17,500
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $6,700 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $5,000
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.87 allocation

    $2,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$65,800$107,400$700$173,900
2$0$0$5,900$5,900
3$0$0$5,900$5,900
4$0$0$5,900$5,900
5$0$0$5,900$5,900
6+$0$0$204,400$204,400
Total$65,800$107,400$228,500$401,700

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.