307 Arroyo Dr
Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
$499,000
4 bd · 2 ba · 1,444 sqft · Listed 10d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1962
Sqft
1,444
Lot sqft
13,064
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-09-19T17:49:07.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$55,700
ADR
$407
Occupancy
37%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$9,599
Confidence
Low (29.38), 48 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Gray Wolf Lodge Lake Hot Tub
Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 269 ft
Revenue $57,914ADR $308Occ ≈ 52%2.9★ (3)
Lakefront Estate w/Views & Hottub on Big Bear Lake
House · 4 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 16 · 305 ft
Revenue $13,041ADR $1,173Occ ≈ 3%4.7★ (59)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gray Wolf Lodge — Sauna, Spa & Lakefront Access Cabin | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $69,879 | $342 | 56% | 4.5★ (153) | 253 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
Gray Wolf Lodge Lake Hot Tub Vacation home | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $57,914 | $308 | 52% | 2.9★ (3) | 269 ft | Booking |
Lakefront Estate w/Views & Hottub on Big Bear Lake House | 4 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 16 | $13,041 | $1,173 | 3% | 4.7★ (59) | 305 ft | Airbnb |
Walk to Lake, Sand Volleyball+Pool Table | Gambler Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $71,283 | $504 | 39% | 4.8★ (32) | 371 ft | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakefront Pines w/ Hot Tub, w/ Panoramic Views House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 | $52,955 | $464 | 31% | 5★ (18) | 440 ft | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Private Dock! HotTub! PoolTable! Foosball! Pet OK! House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 | $117,981 | $816 | 40% | 4.6★ (49) | 463 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront Estate - Luxury Retreat with Spa & Views House | 4 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 16 | $140,608 | $741 | 52% | 4.5★ (9) | 469 ft | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakeview Big Bear Cabin | Hot Tub, Firepit & Deck Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $51,838 | $520 | 27% | 4.7★ (51) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakeview Lookout: Pool & Poker Table! Hot Tub! House | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 13 | $81,679 | $626 | 36% | 4.8★ (91) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Across from Lake! EV charger/Jacuzzi/ Pool table! House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $63,900 | $597 | 29% | 5★ (242) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Show all 49 comps
Brunos Bungalow
Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $25,471ADR $374Occ ≈ 19%5★ (4)
Ultra Hideaway - Near Lake ,Village and Trails
Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $21,647ADR $446Occ ≈ 13%4.8★ (56)
Luxury Mountain View 4B3B Cabin Near Lake and Town
Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $20,944ADR $441Occ ≈ 13%4.8★ (89)
Hot Tub + Game Room + Walk to Village
House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $24,472ADR $476Occ ≈ 14%5★ (6)
4 Bed, 2 Bath - Walking distance to Lake, Backyard Firepit & Great for Families
Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $19,150ADR $307Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (68)
Luxury Lakeview Cabin w/ Deck, Fireplace & Views
Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $8,415ADR $495Occ ≈ 5%—
Forest Trail Retreat: Walk to the Lake! Foosball!
House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $10,232ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.3★ (50)
Hearthmoon Haven
Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $31,052ADR $414Occ ≈ 21%—
BEAUTIFUL LAKE VIEW, 5min walk to Village!
Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $51,139ADR $457Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (174)
Cozy Historic Cabin by the Lake
Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $23,471ADR $491Occ ≈ 13%4.8★ (40)
Unique 1/3 Acre Prop Near Lake/Village +Central AC
Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $6,647ADR $361Occ ≈ 5%—
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4BR Lakeview Cabin | Hot Tub • Firepit • Game Room Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 | $126,350 | $652 | 53% | 4.9★ (79) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront w/ Dock, Hot Tub, Swingset, & Deck Views Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 | $105,085 | $786 | 37% | 4.8★ (98) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Cozy cabin w/ hot tub, backyard & BBQ grill Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $19,044 | $618 | 8% | 5★ (244) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Brunos Bungalow Vacation home | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $25,471 | $374 | 19% | 5★ (4) | 0.2 mi | Booking |
Big Bear Hideout Retreat+Game Room+Near Village Cabin | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 13 | $14,123 | $501 | 8% | 5★ (2) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Ultra Hideaway - Near Lake ,Village and Trails Cabin | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $21,647 | $446 | 13% | 4.8★ (56) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Bruno's Chic Bungalow, Walk 2 Village & Lake Cabin | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $24,093 | $324 | 20% | 5★ (54) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Cozy Big Bear Hideout Retreat + Game Room Cabin | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 13 | $70,600 | $595 | 33% | 4.8★ (79) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Harmony Pines • Spa • Game Garage House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $57,623 | $400 | 39% | 4.9★ (72) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Stone Arch Cabin Big Bear with Hot Tub & Game Room Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 | $34,005 | $481 | 19% | 4.9★ (166) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Private Dock Lux Lakefront Escape, Firepit & AC Cabin | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $119,969 | $858 | 38% | 5★ (32) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Luxury Mountain View 4B3B Cabin Near Lake and Town Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 | $20,944 | $441 | 13% | 4.8★ (89) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Walk to Village & Lake | Game Room, BBQ Chalet | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $18,670 | $495 | 10% | 4.6★ (14) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
CozyCabin near LAKE/Village: AC Hottub BBQ Firepit Cabin | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $4,620 | $355 | 4% | 5★ (35) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Great 4 bedroom close to lake-village- ski summit! House | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 14 | $16,751 | $719 | 6% | 5★ (75) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
1 Mi to Lake: Home w/ Hot Tub & Gazebo in Big Bear House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 | $57,945 | $467 | 34% | 4.5★ (61) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Cozy Lakeview Retreat • GameRoom • Walk to Village Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $31,968 | $636 | 14% | 5★ (4) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront w/Boat Dock, Walk to Village, Sleeps 10 Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $38,834 | $0 | — | 4.8★ (30) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Hot Tub + Game Room + Walk to Village House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 | $24,472 | $476 | 14% | 5★ (6) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
4 Bed, 2 Bath - Walking distance to Lake, Backyard Firepit & Great for Families Cabin | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $19,150 | $307 | 17% | 4.9★ (68) | 0.3 mi | Vrbo |
Lakeview Inn: Pool Table! Foosball! Shuffleboard! House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $71,815 | $525 | 37% | 4.5★ (73) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
**LOCATION!!** Lake View, Hot Tub & Game Room Vacation home | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 | $72,930 | $538 | 37% | 5★ (171) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Luxury Lakeview Cabin w/ Deck, Fireplace & Views Vacation home | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 | $8,415 | $495 | 5% | — | 0.3 mi | Booking |
Forest Trail Retreat: Walk to the Lake! Foosball! House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $10,232 | $0 | — | 4.3★ (50) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
4BR Home, Hot Tub, Sleeps 10, Dogs OK, EV Charger House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $39,201 | $525 | 20% | 4.8★ (94) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Old Steelaway: Boat Dock! Pool Table! Hot Tub! House | 4 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $65,011 | $404 | 44% | 4.5★ (94) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lake House Charm Close to Village W/Spacious Deck House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $23,320 | $279 | 23% | 4.7★ (195) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Luxury Lakeview Cabin w/ Deck, Fireplace & Views Cabin | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 | $23,787 | $437 | 15% | 5★ (10) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Hot Tub Cabin | Pool Table, Arcade, Deck Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $56,495 | $594 | 26% | 4.7★ (27) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Bear Den, Sleeps 8, Walk to Village & Alpine Slide House | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $33,906 | $367 | 25% | 5★ (30) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Near the Village and Lake! Hot Tub, Foosball, BBQ House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 | $66,217 | $488 | 37% | 3.9★ (13) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Hearthmoon Haven Vacation home | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 | $31,052 | $414 | 21% | — | 0.4 mi | Booking |
BEAUTIFUL LAKE VIEW, 5min walk to Village! Cabin | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $51,139 | $457 | 31% | 4.9★ (174) | 0.4 mi | Vrbo |
Cozy Historic Cabin by the Lake Cabin | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 | $23,471 | $491 | 13% | 4.8★ (40) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Wild Heart Retreat, Hot Tub, Game Room & EV House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $53,586 | $361 | 41% | 4.8★ (32) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
FamilyCabin MovieRoom GameRoom Spa FencedProperty Cabin | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $49,640 | $464 | 29% | 4.8★ (110) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Safari lodge Cabin Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 | $3,300 | $825 | 1% | 3.8★ (15) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Beautiful Lake-View House: Walk to Lake + Village! House | 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $59,182 | $408 | 40% | 4.7★ (26) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Unique 1/3 Acre Prop Near Lake/Village +Central AC Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $6,647 | $361 | 5% | — | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$55,700
NOI
$27,870
Cash flow /mo
-$366
Cash needed
$167,710
Cash-on-cash
-2.6%
ROE (yr 1)
8.3%
Cap rate
5.6%
DSCR
0.86
Year-1 write-off
$140,032
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$44,810
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$4,397
- Principal paydown$3,265
- Appreciation at%$14,970
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$11,140
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,671
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,785
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$6,238
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,545
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$124,750
- Closing costs (4.0%)$19,960
- Furnishing (bought new)$23,000
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$44,810
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$384,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$116,000 · 30%
Year-1 deduction
$140,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$45,000
Land 23% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $268,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000
Based on: 1,444 sq ft, built 1962, 4 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $87,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $11,600
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$9,000 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $9,500
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$7,300 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $3,300
Decorative trimdefault
$2,500 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $400
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $1,900
Shelvingdefault
$1,500 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $4,500
Window coverings (14)default
$3,500 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $12,100
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing
$9,300 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $9,100
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$7,000 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $5,500
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,200 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $4,500
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher)listing
$3,500 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $23,000
Furniture bought newlisting
$23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $12,800
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing
$7,900 new × 50% good × 3.24 allocation
- $12,300
Landscaping (typical)default
$7,600 new × 50% good × 3.24 allocation
- $2,300
Patiosdefault
$1,400 new × 50% good × 3.24 allocation
- $26,400
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$16,200 new × 50% good × 3.24 allocation
- $202,400
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$156,000 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $21,000
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$16,200 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $20,200
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$15,600 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $21,100
HVACdefault
$16,300 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
- $3,400
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 3.24 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $85,400 | $53,700 | $900 | $140,000 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $239,800 | $239,800 |
| Total | $85,400 | $53,700 | $268,200 | $407,400 |
The building's share of the price ($384,000) is 3.2x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($118,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.