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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

40173 Esterly Ln

40173 Esterly Ln

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$339,999

2 bd · 1 ba · Listed 26d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyNegative cash flow

Year built

1978

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

2,500

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-03T15:06:43.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$24,287

ADR

$177

Occupancy

38%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,156

Confidence

Low (42.02), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$12,784$22,472$32,949

  • Charming Cabin Near Lake & Village Fun

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 72 ft

    Revenue $17,039ADR $219Occ ≈ 21%4.7★ (51)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cabin 20 is strand along two bedroom

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 128 ft

    Revenue $26,986ADR $113Occ ≈ 65%3.9★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Esterly Hideaway • Spa • Fenced Yard • Firepit

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 154 ft

    Revenue $34,724ADR $216Occ ≈ 44%4.8★ (316)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Little Bear-1079 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 177 ft

    Revenue $18,417ADR $306Occ ≈ 16%—

    Booking

  • Pet-Friendly Retreat | Walk to Village, & Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 190 ft

    Revenue $31,472ADR $304Occ ≈ 28%4.5★ (65)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to /LAKE/Village/Sledding 2+2 Central BBL

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 197 ft

    Revenue $5,830ADR $327Occ ≈ 5%4.7★ (73)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cabin 27 is stand alone 2 bedroom cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 217 ft

    Revenue $12,881ADR $218Occ ≈ 16%4★ (11)

    Airbnb

  • Artistic Mid-Century Cabin w/ Hot Tub & Fire Pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 292 ft

    Revenue $50,100ADR $208Occ ≈ 66%5★ (445)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sweet Dream Cabin Walk to Alpine Slide

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 295 ft

    Revenue $21,867ADR $243Occ ≈ 25%3.5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub • Fenced Yard • Fire Pit • Walk To L

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 322 ft

    Revenue $48,031ADR $348Occ ≈ 38%5★ (29)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 50 comps

  • Hot Tub Cabin Near Village Shops & Dining

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 338 ft

    Revenue $34,684ADR $316Occ ≈ 30%4.5★ (44)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Secret Hideaway Big Bear Lake (VRR-2023-0970)

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 341 ft

    Revenue $8,529ADR $203Occ ≈ 12%4.7★ (67)

    Airbnb

  • Cabin Wolf-Hot Tub, walk to village, pups welcome!

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 371 ft

    Revenue $41,713ADR $194Occ ≈ 59%4.9★ (380)

    Airbnb

  • Welcome to our cabin Newly Renovated 2018

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 371 ft

    Revenue $22,125ADR $197Occ ≈ 31%4.2★ (5)

    Vrbo

  • A frame jacuzzi perfect location

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 387 ft

    Revenue $31,032ADR $180Occ ≈ 47%4.5★ (49)

    Airbnb

  • Perfect Perch Cabin • Walk to Village & Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 387 ft

    Revenue $4,558ADR $228Occ ≈ 5%4.9★ (28)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Cozy Chalet

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 394 ft

    Revenue $16,626ADR $276Occ ≈ 17%4.8★ (327)

    Airbnb

  • Casa catalina #667

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 394 ft

    Revenue $5,584ADR $268Occ ≈ 6%—

    Booking

  • Hot Tub Retreat Close to Slopes & Village

    Chalet · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 394 ft

    Revenue $12,336ADR $335Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Adorable Casa Catalina Village Cabin at Big Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 397 ft

    Revenue $8,590ADR $319Occ ≈ 7%4.3★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Owl Cabin: Lakeside Serenity (house for sale)

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 404 ft

    Revenue $19,033ADR $179Occ ≈ 29%5★ (56)

    Airbnb

  • COZY BEAR Cabin- AC! Fenced Yard! Near Lake!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 407 ft

    Revenue $33,982ADR $189Occ ≈ 49%4.9★ (233)

    Airbnb

  • Modern Rustic Escape, Romantic Hot Tub, Firepit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 440 ft

    Revenue $12,751ADR $266Occ ≈ 13%5★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sweet Dream Cabin on Dream Street | Walk to Alpine Slide, Dining, & Big Bear Fun

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 453 ft

    Revenue $27,187ADR $281Occ ≈ 27%—

    Booking

  • Dream Lake Cabin | Hot Tub, EV & Walk to Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 456 ft

    Revenue $47,527ADR $184Occ ≈ 71%4.8★ (39)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Village & Lake, Deck, Barbecue

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 456 ft

    Revenue $3,637ADR $247Occ ≈ 4%4.5★ (28)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cabin 29 is stand alone 2 bedrooms

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 472 ft

    Revenue $9,468ADR $258Occ ≈ 10%4.4★ (13)

    Airbnb

  • "THE MAHANOY" - 1946 Cozy Craftman in the woods

    Cottage · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 505 ft

    Revenue $32,055ADR $192Occ ≈ 46%4.8★ (132)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Starbright Cabin-AC, hot tub, close to everything

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 518 ft

    Revenue $40,804ADR $207Occ ≈ 54%4.9★ (373)

    Airbnb

  • two bed rooms cabin 1

    Townhouse · 2 bd · 0 ba · sleeps 5 · 525 ft

    Revenue $17,377ADR $164Occ ≈ 29%3.8★ (16)

    Airbnb

  • DreamcatcherCabin, BBQ! TV in Bedroom&Living-room!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $10,785ADR $2,261Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (94)

    Airbnb

  • Fox Den · Hot Tub · Walk to Lake & Village, Dog OK

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $20,873ADR $244Occ ≈ 23%5★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • VISTA HOUSE - 2 Cabins for one price Walk to LAKE!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $29,045ADR $255Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (125)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cottage 1A: Modern cabin with a deck. No kitchen

    Cottage · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $7,998ADR $199Occ ≈ 11%4★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Classic Cabin w/Hot Tub Walking Distance To Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $18,072ADR $236Occ ≈ 21%4.5★ (38)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Open Concept w Hot Tub, Kayaks, & Mountain View’s

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $59,168ADR $189Occ ≈ 86%5★ (505)

    Airbnb

  • Kitschy cabin great location w/hot tub,fenced yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,180ADR $257Occ ≈ 35%5★ (191)

    Airbnb

  • Midnight Chalet A-Frame | Spa, Fireplace, BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $54,722ADR $229Occ ≈ 65%4.9★ (173)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakewood Den + Walk to Lake + Hot Tub + Pets!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $29,470ADR $178Occ ≈ 45%5★ (121)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine Nest Marina Retreat at Big Bear- Marina Area

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $13,577ADR $619Occ ≈ 6%4★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Dream On: Best Location! Village! Pet Friendly!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,531ADR $197Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (65)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3 story cabin In the heart of Big Bear Lake

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $35,241ADR $177Occ ≈ 55%4.9★ (364)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Necessities

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $9,189ADR $234Occ ≈ 11%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakewood Landing / Near the Lake!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $5,591ADR $265Occ ≈ 6%4.8★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Claw Bungalow-379 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $13,815ADR $325Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • *Bear Claw Bungalow*Hot Tub*Walk to Lake Retreat*

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $31,870ADR $0Occ ≈ —4★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub View-Walk to Lake & Village

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,256ADR $205Occ ≈ 43%4.8★ (566)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Cabin Close to the Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $22,818ADR $165Occ ≈ 38%4.8★ (164)

    Airbnb

  • Rosy Cozy Cottage-Walk to Big Bear Lake-Wifi

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $27,049ADR $151Occ ≈ 49%4.2★ (34)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Den - AC, Pets, Sled Hill, BBQ, Ski, By Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $37,881ADR $204Occ ≈ 51%4.9★ (127)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$24,287

NOI

$7,813

Cash flow /mo

-$1,181

Cash needed

$98,600

Cash-on-cash

-14.4%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.8%

Cap rate

2.3%

DSCR

0.36

Year-1 write-off

$88,910

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$28,451

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$14,173
  • Principal paydown$2,225
  • Appreciation at%$10,200
ROE-1.8%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)27.1%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,857
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$729
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,214
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,250
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,734

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$85,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$13,600
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$28,451

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$273,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$88,000 · 32%

Year-1 deduction

$89,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$28,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $185,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1978, 2 bd / 1 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $54,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $17,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$45,400

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $7,900

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $6,500

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $2,200

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $100

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $800

  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $3,100

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $3,600 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $3,200

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $6,200

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $3,700

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $5,100

  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$42,900

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 2.24 allocation

    $8,700

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 2.24 allocation

    $8,400

  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 2.24 allocation

    $1,500

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 2.24 allocation

    $17,600

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.24 allocation

    $6,700
Building, 39-year$185,000

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,900 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $136,100

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $14,100

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $13,500

  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $14,100

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $5,400 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $4,800

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.24 allocation

    $2,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$45,400$42,900$600$88,900
2$0$0$4,700$4,700
3$0$0$4,700$4,700
4$0$0$4,700$4,700
5$0$0$4,700$4,700
6+$0$0$165,400$165,400
Total$45,400$42,900$185,000$273,300

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.