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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

897 Ford Ln

897 Ford Ln

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$349,000

2 bd · 1 ba · 636 sqft · Listed 26d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1969

Sqft

636

Lot sqft

11,901

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-03T14:48:53.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$32,615

ADR

$215

Occupancy

42%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,459

Confidence

Low (36.29), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$13,262$30,318$41,807
  • Rustic Cabin/Quiet Area/Next to Forest/Feet From Hiking Trails/Hot Tub/Garage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 253 ft

    Revenue $45,252ADR $177Occ ≈ 70%4.8★ (433)

    Vrbo

  • Big Cub Cabin + Patio + Amazing Location!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 269 ft

    Revenue $8,949ADR $158Occ ≈ 16%3★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Cub Cabin + Patio + Amazing Location!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 410 ft

    Revenue $6,632ADR $178Occ ≈ 10%3.2★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • A Perfect Peaceful Retreat Hot Tub Prime Location

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 463 ft

    Revenue $42,824ADR $194Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (551)

    Airbnb

  • Sunrise Pines Cabin | Spa · Near Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $19,458ADR $215Occ ≈ 25%4.9★ (34)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Lake cabin, backs to forest, sledding

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $15,238ADR $304Occ ≈ 14%4.9★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear cabin, backs to forest, shedding

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $1,903ADR $383Occ ≈ 1%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Adorable cottage, new game room, walk to Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $49,791ADR $314Occ ≈ 43%4.5★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lily's Bear Cabin #2544

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $68,362ADR $411Occ ≈ 46%4.8★ (3)

    Booking

  • Moose Creek Manor:Historic Charm!Pet Friendly!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,927ADR $201Occ ≈ 34%4.2★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 50 comps
  • Great 2 bedroom getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,331ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    Airbnb

  • Eureka Designer Mtn Retreat, Pergola & Ping Pong

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,339ADR $252Occ ≈ 40%5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 10-Minute walk to Fireworks! Foosball, Deck, BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,459ADR $217Occ ≈ 14%4.7★ (32)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Eureka Ranch Designer Cabin

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,118ADR $274Occ ≈ 45%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Cozy Cabin Walk to Village! Hot Tub! Pets! Fenced!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,455ADR $233Occ ≈ 39%4.4★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Oakwoods Cabin | Hot Tub · Near Snow Summit

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,380ADR $245Occ ≈ 32%4.7★ (116)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Relax in Style: Cabin with Hot Tub in Scenic Big Bear Lake, California

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $4,002ADR $226Occ ≈ 5%—

    Vrbo

  • Oak Tree Retreat: Near Village! Spa! WiFi! BBQ!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,479ADR $2,911Occ ≈ 2%4.3★ (57)

    Airbnb

  • Alpine Retreat | Hot Tub • Walk to Village, Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,245ADR $160Occ ≈ 4%4.7★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear’s Best Cozy Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $307ADR $0Occ ≈ —5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Welcome to our cabin!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $11,453ADR $227Occ ≈ 14%4.6★ (27)

    Airbnb

  • Knight Sky Cabin - BBQ, Walk to Lake & Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $37,575ADR $199Occ ≈ 52%5★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy 2B Cabin, Minutes from Village & Ski Resorts

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $32,716ADR $145Occ ≈ 62%5★ (83)

    Airbnb

  • Walk To The Village! Fully Fenced and Spacious!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $51,550ADR $294Occ ≈ 48%5★ (201)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 15-Minute walk to Fireworks! Smart TV, Deck, BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $10,730ADR $313Occ ≈ 9%4.6★ (34)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Black Knight Cabin•Close to Summit•Walk to Village

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $36,392ADR $220Occ ≈ 45%4.8★ (212)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cute & Cozy, Walk to The Village Shops and Lake!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $18,616ADR $187Occ ≈ 27%5★ (83)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Perfectly Located To Main Attractions, Hot Tub, AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $22,845ADR $344Occ ≈ 18%5★ (13)

    Airbnb

  • Village Cabin - EV & RV parking

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $11,730ADR $321Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (145)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moulin Rouge Village Retreat w/ Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $52,622ADR $482Occ ≈ 30%4.3★ (67)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moulin rouge #2055

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $62,676ADR $486Occ ≈ 35%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Village Hut

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $16,529ADR $204Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (57)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to the Village ~ Yellow Pine Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,603ADR $312Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (26)

    Airbnb

  • NEW Hot Tub, Walk to Lake/Village, Pool Table, BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $9,009ADR $446Occ ≈ 6%4.3★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Grandpas axe # 1775

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $35,854ADR $331Occ ≈ 30%—

    Booking

  • Grandpas Axe Village Retreat w/ Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $31,463ADR $348Occ ≈ 25%4.3★ (79)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Frosty Pines -Modern-2/1-Excellent Location-pet ok

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $24,727ADR $286Occ ≈ 24%5★ (217)

    Airbnb

  • A Classic A-Frame Cabin | AC•Games•BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $63,136ADR $272Occ ≈ 64%5★ (63)

    Airbnb

  • The Place Beyond The Pines - Two Bedroom / C6

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $63,289ADR $370Occ ≈ 47%4.7★ (319)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Forest Cottage · Hot Tub · Firepit · Fenced Yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $29,498ADR $235Occ ≈ 34%4.6★ (38)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Retreat • Pet-friendly • Hot Tub

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $68,219ADR $298Occ ≈ 63%4.8★ (208)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sleep Inn - Ultra Clean Ultra Modern / C2

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $58,273ADR $342Occ ≈ 47%4.7★ (125)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lake Village Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $22,826ADR $237Occ ≈ 26%5★ (32)

    Airbnb

  • Tree House 30 days $3000 for the month.

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $37,916ADR $133Occ ≈ 78%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Village Cabin- Near Snow Summit!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $36,133ADR $201Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (243)

    Airbnb

  • Finns Fish Camp - Walking distance to Lake and Village! Back patio with barbecue, fully fenced yard!

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $31,137ADR $231Occ ≈ 37%—

    Booking

  • High Hopes hosted by Big Bear Cool Cabins

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $24,812ADR $247Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lake view walk to lake, village or ski resort

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $38,756ADR $196Occ ≈ 54%4.8★ (194)

    Airbnb

  • Colorado Lodge / C4

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $70,380ADR $409Occ ≈ 47%4.8★ (193)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Backway Hideaway | Close to the Village!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $33,460ADR $301Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$32,615

NOI

$13,664

Cash flow /mo

-$742

Cash needed

$117,210

Cash-on-cash

-7.6%

ROE (yr 1)

3.3%

Cap rate

3.9%

DSCR

0.61

Year-1 write-off

$127,264

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$40,725

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$8,904
  • Principal paydown$2,284
  • Appreciation at%$10,470
ROE3.3%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)38.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,523
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$978
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,631
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$5,401
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,780

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$87,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$13,960
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$40,725

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$279,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$111,000 · 40%

Year-1 deduction

$127,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $168,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 636 sq ft, built 1969, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $78,000 in year 1 (22% short-life, $25,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$83,600
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $7,200 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $13,800
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $7,400 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $14,100
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,100 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $2,100
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $1,700
  • Window coverings (6)default

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $2,900
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $4,100 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $7,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $5,600 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $10,700
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,400 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $6,500
  • Appliances (range, refrigerator)listing

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $7,700
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$43,200
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $5,200 new × 50% good × 4.79 allocation

    $12,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $5,000 new × 50% good × 4.79 allocation

    $12,000
  • Patiosdefault

    $600 new × 50% good × 4.79 allocation

    $1,500
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $7,200 new × 50% good × 4.79 allocation

    $17,100
Building, 39-year$168,500
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $68,400 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $131,000
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $13,500
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $10,200
  • HVACdefault

    $7,200 new × 40% good × 4.79 allocation

    $13,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$83,600$43,200$500$127,300
2$0$0$4,300$4,300
3$0$0$4,300$4,300
4$0$0$4,300$4,300
5$0$0$4,300$4,300
6+$0$0$150,700$150,700
Total$83,600$43,200$168,500$295,200

The building's share of the price ($279,000) is 4.8x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($58,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.