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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1471 Rockspray Dr

1471 Rockspray Dr

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$495,000

2 bd · 2 ba · Listed 16d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1977

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

8,113

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-13T14:46:51.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$28,211

ADR

$224

Occupancy

35%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,213

Confidence

Low (23.03), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$13,203$27,475$36,118
  • Moonridge cabin | Bear Mtn + Fireplace + Pets

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 43 ft

    Revenue $13,271ADR $246Occ ≈ 15%4.2★ (16)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Private Hot Tub + Game Room • Near Bear Mountain

    House · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 108 ft

    Revenue $5,148ADR $190Occ ≈ 7%4.8★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Slopes! Hot Tub, Game Room, Fire Pit! UL

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 161 ft

    Revenue $13,964ADR $357Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub • Game Room | Moonridge • Bear Mtn Mins

    House · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 230 ft

    Revenue $8,315ADR $252Occ ≈ 9%—

    Airbnb

  • Nested oaks cottage #2234

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 305 ft

    Revenue $30,616ADR $263Occ ≈ 32%—

    Booking

  • A-Frame|Arcade|Firepit| 10 min to Lake or Downtown

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 322 ft

    Revenue $11,820ADR $229Occ ≈ 14%4.7★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Chalet in the Trees! Close to Lake & Slopes FIN

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 351 ft

    Revenue $10,711ADR $406Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Picturesque home, Game room, Multiple Fireplaces, Firepit, Wrap around lounging

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 374 ft

    Revenue $21,927ADR $206Occ ≈ 29%5★ (1)

    Vrbo

  • Walk to Bear Mountain! Hot Tub! Game Room! Cute UL

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 397 ft

    Revenue $2,296ADR $398Occ ≈ 2%—

    Airbnb

  • Primrose Pines Romantic Escape +Spa | 1 Mi to Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 404 ft

    Revenue $13,526ADR $332Occ ≈ 11%5★ (101)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 49 comps
  • Primrose Cabin ~ Mountain Cabin w/ hot tub, deck, fireplace & washer/dryer

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 423 ft

    Revenue $50,577ADR $516Occ ≈ 27%3★ (1)

    Booking

  • Primrose Cabin #709

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 423 ft

    Revenue $55,489ADR $596Occ ≈ 26%—

    Booking

  • Primrose Cabin ~ Mountain Cabin w/ hot tub, deck,

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 436 ft

    Revenue $20,832ADR $354Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Black Bear Haus-Hot Tub GameRoomWalk to Bear MTN

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 472 ft

    Revenue $31,514ADR $369Occ ≈ 23%4.8★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Peaceful Cabin+Jacuzzi+Balcony+Fireplace+BBQ+Games

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $51,307ADR $273Occ ≈ 51%5★ (57)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Pet Friendly Cabin! - 2 blocks from Bear Mountain in Southern California

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,490ADR $185Occ ≈ 35%4.8★ (284)

    Vrbo

  • Big Bear A-Frame • Hot Tub + Deck • Near Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $12,219ADR $242Occ ≈ 14%4.7★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cute Ski Chalet! Game Room! Close to Slopes - FIN

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $28,022ADR $268Occ ≈ 29%4.1★ (5)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Bow Canyon Oasis ~ Luxury Moonridge Log Home | Gam

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $68,030ADR $726Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (8)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Geronimo’s Hideaway 5 min walk to Ski.

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,131ADR $320Occ ≈ 26%5★ (33)

    Airbnb

  • Shasta Pines | Hot Tub, Dog Friendly, Hilltop View

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $61,393ADR $237Occ ≈ 71%4.9★ (97)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • EV charging Cabin w/AC by Bear Mtn with RV parking

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,250ADR $159Occ ≈ 47%5★ (165)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beautiful View • Bear Mountain Resort & Lake View

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $82,504ADR $363Occ ≈ 62%5★ (63)

    Airbnb

  • Close to Bear Mountain, Fireplace, Deck, Barbecue

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,072ADR $219Occ ≈ 26%3.5★ (15)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Moonridge Cabin Near Bear Mtn | Hot Tub | EV | Dog

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,871ADR $240Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (78)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Emerald Alps: Lake Views!Hot Tub!Foosball!Gas BBQ!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,640ADR $201Occ ≈ 39%4.5★ (177)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • ModernRusticLogCabin-RARE SkiView-Spa-Firepit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $79,664ADR $248Occ ≈ 88%5★ (187)

    Airbnb

  • Quaint Cabin in the Woods Steps to National Forest

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $5,367ADR $335Occ ≈ 4%4.9★ (51)

    Airbnb

  • Grandma Chic Cabin with 360 views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,099ADR $260Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (66)

    Airbnb

  • Luxury 2BR | Balcony | Game Room | W/D

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $73,462ADR $848Occ ≈ 24%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Peek-A-Boo Lake Views | Cozy Retreat + Near Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,225ADR $246Occ ≈ 31%5★ (37)

    Airbnb

  • Clover Bear Cabin | SPA | GAME TABLE | VIEW

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,655ADR $331Occ ≈ 1%5★ (19)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Clover Bear Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $18,710ADR $235Occ ≈ 22%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub, Fire Pit & Views! Modern Luxury Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $35,093ADR $415Occ ≈ 23%4.5★ (11)

    Airbnb

  • Game Tables And A Large Pine Surrounded Lot

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $29,645ADR $315Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (49)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Bear Mtn! Pet Friendly! Hot Tub!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $37,067ADR $495Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (31)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fat Bear Bungalow

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $6,158ADR $169Occ ≈ 10%—

    Airbnb

  • Ski Retreat- Hot Tub- Family Friendly-The Refugio

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $79,119ADR $416Occ ≈ 52%4.5★ (28)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fireside Retreat - Stylish & Cozy - Moonridge Area

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $47,723ADR $199Occ ≈ 66%4.9★ (56)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Moonridge Cabin

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $0ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious and Secluded A-Frame Cabin in Moonridge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $18,880ADR $214Occ ≈ 24%5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear on the Run

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,997ADR $230Occ ≈ 15%5★ (8)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Mountain Getaway with a View and Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $31,227ADR $263Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (237)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Panoramic Mtn & Lake Views: Hilltop Big Bear Cabin

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $10,080ADR $267Occ ≈ 10%3★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain and lake view retreat, dog friendly with deck & patio

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,437ADR $395Occ ≈ 2%1★ (1)

    Vrbo

  • Ridgecrest Mountain Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,511ADR $352Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Whispering Woods Big Bear~ Central Resort Cottage~

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $76,755ADR $501Occ ≈ 42%4.2★ (3)

    Booking

  • Bonnie Brae - Walk to Bear Mountain - Spa

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,700ADR $268Occ ≈ 28%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub, Pines & Slopes – Your Big Bear Escape

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $35,801ADR $304Occ ≈ 32%4.4★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$28,211

NOI

$8,142

Cash flow /mo

-$1,989

Cash needed

$143,550

Cash-on-cash

-16.6%

ROE (yr 1)

-4.0%

Cap rate

1.6%

DSCR

0.25

Year-1 write-off

$99,758

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$31,922

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$23,866
  • Principal paydown$3,239
  • Appreciation at%$14,850
ROE-4.0%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)18.2%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,642
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$846
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,411
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,188
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,525

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$123,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$19,800
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$31,922

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$322,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$99,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$100,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$32,000

Land 35% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $223,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1977, 2 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $58,000 in year 1 (18% short-life, $19,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$51,500
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $9,400
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $7,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $2,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $1,000
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $3,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $7,300
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $4,400
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $8,600
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$47,600
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 2.65 allocation

    $10,300
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 2.65 allocation

    $9,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 2.65 allocation

    $1,800
  • Irrigationlisting

    $3,500 new × 50% good × 2.65 allocation

    $4,600
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 2.65 allocation

    $20,900
Building, 39-year$222,900
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,800 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $161,100
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $16,700
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $15,900
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $16,700
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $9,600
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.65 allocation

    $2,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$51,500$47,600$700$99,800
2$0$0$5,700$5,700
3$0$0$5,700$5,700
4$0$0$5,700$5,700
5$0$0$5,700$5,700
6+$0$0$199,300$199,300
Total$51,500$47,600$222,900$321,900

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.