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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

43335 Sand Canyon Rd

43335 Sand Canyon Rd

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$890,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · Listed 27d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2002

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

7,800

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-02T20:22:02.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$36,058

ADR

$315

Occupancy

31%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,201

Confidence

Low (38.11), 47 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,938$27,324$38,122
  • Bear View Lodge

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 10 ft

    Revenue $45,208ADR $481Occ ≈ 26%5★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Bear View Lodge: Panoramic Mtn Views! Pool Table!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 220 ft

    Revenue $67,262ADR $0Occ ≈ —5★ (40)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game/Arcade Table, Near the Slopes

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 236 ft

    Revenue $24,006ADR $178Occ ≈ 37%4.3★ (12)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Scandinavian Mountain Cabin- 2 min from Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 246 ft

    Revenue $27,529ADR $399Occ ≈ 19%4.9★ (116)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Bear Cabin. BBQ, Walk to Bear Mtn, location

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 302 ft

    Revenue $3,822ADR $477Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Perfect location Cabin w/Hot tub & Game room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 325 ft

    Revenue $13,701ADR $460Occ ≈ 8%4.5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Mtn Cabin | <1mi Ski Resort | Game Loft

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 341 ft

    Revenue $45,715ADR $409Occ ≈ 31%5★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fireplace & BBQ + Game Table + Close to Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 518 ft

    Revenue $20,681ADR $305Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Canyon: Large Cabin, Beautiful Views & HotTub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,430ADR $393Occ ≈ 16%4.4★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Canyon Getaway | Hot Tub & Game Loft

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $8,709ADR $301Occ ≈ 8%4.5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 48 comps
  • Bear Canyon Beautiful Views With Spa

    Villa · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $4,127ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.5★ (32)

    Booking

  • Dancing Bear Cabin: 5 mins to ski, zoo, hike, lake

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $22,964ADR $299Occ ≈ 21%5★ (84)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bearfoot Den, Walk to Bear Mountain, Fireplaces,

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,476ADR $299Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (27)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fully Fenced Yard! Pool Table! Log Cabin!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $51,745ADR $288Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (136)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lake w/ Hot Tub! Dog Friendly!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,978ADR $300Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (71)

    Airbnb

  • Deer Canyon Cabin w/ spa, BBQ, near Bear Mountain

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,882ADR $490Occ ≈ 8%4.2★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pool Table! Incredible Views! Near Bear Mountain!

    House · 3 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $36,203ADR $440Occ ≈ 23%4.9★ (18)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Getaway! Hot Tub, Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,183ADR $384Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (120)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Outdoor Spa Cabin! Walk to ski lifts, golf and zoo

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $13,215ADR $240Occ ≈ 15%4.6★ (284)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Chalet | Hot Tub • Fire Pit • Mtn Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $62,229ADR $286Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (120)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Serene Cabin w/ Hot Tub < 1 Mi to Bear Mountain!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $19,513ADR $273Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (128)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Mountain Escape | Hot Tub | EV Charging

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $9,408ADR $347Occ ≈ 7%5★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Outstanding Cabin with Game Room and Impressive Outdoor Area in Big Bear Lake, California

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,752ADR $478Occ ≈ 6%—

    Vrbo

  • Walk to Ski w/Hot tub, mins to village

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,119ADR $346Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (97)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Fun! Walk to Skiing & Golf

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,732ADR $342Occ ≈ 16%5★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 3BR Chalet with Forest Views, Fireplace, Deck, BBQ

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,806ADR $234Occ ≈ 33%4.3★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Game Room, Pool Table, Deck, Barbecue, Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,164ADR $507Occ ≈ 20%4.4★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 1 Mi to Skiing: Mtn-View Cabin in Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $54,388ADR $267Occ ≈ 56%4.8★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Ollie's Cabin:Mtn Views!Spa!Foosball!Fully Fenced!

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,353ADR $337Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (24)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub Retreat Near Bear Mountain

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,497ADR $357Occ ≈ 20%4.5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin w/ Fireplace, Deck & Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $4,500ADR $279Occ ≈ 4%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Smart TV, BBQ, Deck, Walk to Slopes

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,532ADR $317Occ ≈ 13%4.7★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • White Pines| Golf Course Views, BBQ & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,997ADR $190Occ ≈ 59%4.4★ (13)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Private and spacious w/ wrap around deck mtn views

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,073ADR $325Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (30)

    Airbnb

  • 3bedroom 2.5 bath Close to Bear Mtn

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,322ADR $241Occ ≈ 20%4.5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Panoramic View, Hot Tub, Game Room, Family Retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $77,101ADR $281Occ ≈ 75%4.9★ (66)

    Airbnb

  • New! Bearadise~ Relaxing Views Mountain Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,810ADR $994Occ ≈ 13%4.9★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • Starlight Sanctuary | Wow Views, AC, Near Slopes!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $64,982ADR $296Occ ≈ 60%4.9★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonlight Lodge: Luxury! Wonderful Views!

    House · 3 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,665ADR $586Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (67)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 034 - Menlo Suite - Big Bear Getaway

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,856ADR $270Occ ≈ 30%3.4★ (4)

    Booking

  • Moonlight Ridge, Ski Slope Views, Spa & Arcade

    House · 3 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $61,142ADR $407Occ ≈ 41%5★ (86)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Mountain Views Chalet at Big Bear- Foosball

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,854ADR $399Occ ≈ 12%3.8★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Majestic Mountain Manor

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,550ADR $469Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Close to Bear Mtn & Forest! Hot Tub! Gametable!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,290ADR $288Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (65)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Slopes • Cozy Cabin • Fireplace + Private

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,953ADR $244Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Après Slopes Heaven - Spectacular multi-level home overlooking Bear Mountain Ski Slopes!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,798ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    Booking

  • Sleeps 8 · Hot Tub + Game Room · 10 min to Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $42,327ADR $316Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (177)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cottage at ToMolly’s Moonridge Cozy Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $5,726ADR $245Occ ≈ 6%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$36,058

NOI

$7,433

Cash flow /mo

-$4,177

Cash needed

$258,100

Cash-on-cash

-19.4%

ROE (yr 1)

-6.8%

Cap rate

0.8%

DSCR

0.13

Year-1 write-off

$180,630

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$57,801

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$50,118
  • Principal paydown$5,824
  • Appreciation at%$26,700
ROE-6.8%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)15.6%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,212
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,082
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,803
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$11,125
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$4,539

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$222,500
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$35,600
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$57,801

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$714,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$179,000 · 25%

Year-1 deduction

$181,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$58,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $535,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,900 sq ft (from beds), built 2002, 3 bd / 2.5 ba, furnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $113,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $36,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$108,500
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,000 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $13,700
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $11,200
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,300 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $4,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $1,700
  • Window coverings (19)default

    $4,800 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $6,500
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $12,200 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $16,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,800 new × 52% good × 3.44 allocation

    $13,900
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,700 new × 52% good × 3.44 allocation

    $8,400
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $11,100
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $12,400
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $19,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $7,800
15-year land improvements$70,500
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,000 new × 50% good × 3.44 allocation

    $15,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,700 new × 50% good × 3.44 allocation

    $14,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,900 new × 50% good × 3.44 allocation

    $3,200
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $21,400 new × 50% good × 3.44 allocation

    $36,700
Building, 39-year$534,600
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $206,100 new × 60% good × 3.44 allocation

    $425,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $21,400 new × 52% good × 3.44 allocation

    $38,200
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $21,400 new × 52% good × 3.44 allocation

    $38,200
  • HVACdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $29,400
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.44 allocation

    $3,600

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$108,500$70,500$1,700$180,600
2$0$0$13,700$13,700
3$0$0$13,700$13,700
4$0$0$13,700$13,700
5$0$0$13,700$13,700
6+$0$0$478,100$478,100
Total$108,500$70,500$534,600$713,600

The building's share of the price ($706,000) is 3.4x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($205,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.