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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

957 Club View Dr

957 Club View Dr

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$515,000

2 bd · 2 ba · Listed 15d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1958

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

7,200

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-14T05:49:38.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$26,026

ADR

$201

Occupancy

35%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,018

Confidence

Low (37.94), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$14,761$23,725$34,820
  • Big Bear Grant's Great Outdoors

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $8,528ADR $370Occ ≈ 6%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 4 J’s Cabin | Walk to Bear Mountain, Zoo & Trails

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,766ADR $220Occ ≈ 18%4.5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Blue Skies Cabin- Spa, Fireplace and EV Charger

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,858ADR $219Occ ≈ 30%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Little Pine Chalet | on Golf Course | walk to ski

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $44,971ADR $514Occ ≈ 24%5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine Rock Cabin- Game room with pool table & bar

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,004ADR $383Occ ≈ 10%5★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Charming Hot Tub Retreat Near Bear Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $27,143ADR $250Occ ≈ 30%4.5★ (70)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bit of Heaven | Golf View, Spa, Dogs Ok, Cent AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $71,632ADR $223Occ ≈ 88%4.9★ (63)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beautiful Big Bear Cabin with Large Jacuzzi

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $15,205ADR $283Occ ≈ 15%4.9★ (67)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beautiful ViewsBBQHot TubCabin close to ski

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,591ADR $277Occ ≈ 23%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Black Pine Cabin w/Jacuzzi, 5 min to Bear Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $24,174ADR $261Occ ≈ 25%5★ (85)

    Airbnb

Show all 50 comps
  • Just The Two of Us Couples Cabin/ Walk to Zoo/Ski/Hiking

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,756ADR $272Occ ≈ 36%4.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Hot Tub Under the Stars, Backs to Trails, Pet

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $6,909ADR $224Occ ≈ 8%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A-frame backs the forest,Walk to Slopes, Hot Tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,165ADR $256Occ ≈ 52%4.9★ (278)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Little Cedar~With Spa; Pets Ok

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,058ADR $238Occ ≈ 28%5★ (25)

    Airbnb

  • Condo on Golf Course! Walk to Bear! Pets! Views!

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,010ADR $187Occ ≈ 47%4.7★ (28)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Slopes, Fireplace, Deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,620ADR $203Occ ≈ 31%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Nicoles Happy Place hosted by Big Bear Cool Cabins

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,435ADR $143Occ ≈ 20%4.3★ (32)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Forest Valley

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,587ADR $349Occ ≈ 22%5★ (11)

    Airbnb

  • Beautiful spacious cabin with amazing views, BBQ, Hot Tub, a walk to ski slopes,

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $671ADR $183Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (30)

    Vrbo

  • Beautiful spacious cabin with amazing views, BBQ, Hot Tub, a walk to ski slopes,

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,488ADR $200Occ ≈ 3%—

    Vrbo

  • Little Bear Cubs Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,759ADR $226Occ ≈ 18%4.6★ (90)

    Airbnb

  • TreeLicious | Jacuzzi, Cozy Chalet close to Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $60,569ADR $226Occ ≈ 73%4.7★ (71)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Bear Mtn • 2BR • New Spa • Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,913ADR $267Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (240)

    Airbnb

  • Dreamy Retreat – Walk to Mountain, Zoo & Golf

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,754ADR $262Occ ≈ 27%5★ (22)

    AirbnbBooking

  • All Seasons Chateau - Beautiful cozy cabin and just couple steps away from Bear Mountain Resort

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,209ADR $245Occ ≈ 13%0.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Paddington Themed Loft Manor, Hot Tub & Game Room

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $53,129ADR $241Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (92)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hiking Paradise: Back to National Forest

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,052ADR $175Occ ≈ 56%4.8★ (473)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Zoo and Golf, Hot Tub, Enclosed Dog Yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,352ADR $283Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (145)

    Airbnb

  • It's Bear Time!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,853ADR $284Occ ≈ 28%4.9★ (109)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Trophy Treehouse Walk to Ski Slopes, Golf, Pets ok

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,570ADR $171Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (67)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Treetop Falls hosted by Big Bear Cool Cabins

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,993ADR $261Occ ≈ 15%4.3★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bit of Heaven | A-Frame | Hot Tub | Pets Welcome

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $38,352ADR $263Occ ≈ 40%4.7★ (77)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Bear Mountain Cabin Hot Tub Walk Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $63,757ADR $242Occ ≈ 72%5★ (76)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Relax in Pines: Cabin Near Slopes & Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,278ADR $286Occ ≈ 16%4.1★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Family Friendly/Couples/Mtn. Views/Fire-Pit/Yard

    Chalet · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,976ADR $196Occ ≈ 29%5★ (184)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Summit Happy Mountain Cabin w\ Hot tub\EV Charger.

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,581ADR $271Occ ≈ 37%4.5★ (201)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Wolf Cub Cabin#1946

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $8,543ADR $320Occ ≈ 7%4.6★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Lake Cabin Near Ski Slopes, Golf, Cozy

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,717ADR $268Occ ≈ 16%—

    VrboBooking

  • Cozy Cabin Near Ski Slopes and Golf Course

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,303ADR $0Occ ≈ —3.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • The Black Lodge Moonridge Cabin with AC & Firepit!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $18,039ADR $275Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (110)

    Airbnb

  • Snowbound Escape | <1mi Zoo • Trails • Bear Mtn

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,230ADR $300Occ ≈ 23%5★ (29)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Moonridge Retreat: Walk to Ski & Golf

    Townhouse · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,984ADR $452Occ ≈ 13%3.9★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Golf Inn-1218 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,214ADR $337Occ ≈ 10%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Wolf Cub Cabin- Resort Cozy Cabin- Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $42,753ADR $448Occ ≈ 26%4.5★ (56)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Gambrel Boho Cabin Vibes, Hot Tub & Firepit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,282ADR $227Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (92)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet Friendly! Walk to Bear Mtn & Golf Course!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $25,576ADR $204Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (77)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stylish Pet Friendly Cabin, Walk to the Slopes, Golf and Zoo

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $20,136ADR $162Occ ≈ 34%5★ (2)

    Vrbo

  • Walk to Bear Mountain~Putting Green~Cozy Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,960ADR $235Occ ≈ 21%4.9★ (208)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Zoo, Mt Biking & Trails - Cozy Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $26,325ADR $178Occ ≈ 41%4.9★ (330)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Mountain Hideaway, Cabin w Spa

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $46,498ADR $192Occ ≈ 66%4.8★ (670)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$26,026

NOI

$6,247

Cash flow /mo

-$2,255

Cash needed

$149,350

Cash-on-cash

-18.1%

ROE (yr 1)

-5.5%

Cap rate

1.2%

DSCR

0.19

Year-1 write-off

$128,361

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,075

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$27,055
  • Principal paydown$3,370
  • Appreciation at%$15,450
ROE-5.5%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)22.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,205
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$781
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,301
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,438
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,627

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$128,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$20,600
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$41,075

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$415,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$127,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$128,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $288,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1958, 2 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $73,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $23,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$70,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $12,400
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $10,200
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $3,400
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $1,300
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $4,900
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (50% of floors)listing

    $4,500 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $6,300
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $9,700
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $5,800
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, dryer)listing

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $9,900
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$56,700
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $13,600
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $13,100
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $2,400
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $27,600
Building, 39-year$287,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,800 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $212,600
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $22,000
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $21,000
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $22,100
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $4,500 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $6,300
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $3,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$70,800$56,700$900$128,400
2$0$0$7,400$7,400
3$0$0$7,400$7,400
4$0$0$7,400$7,400
5$0$0$7,400$7,400
6+$0$0$257,400$257,400
Total$70,800$56,700$287,800$415,200

The building's share of the price ($409,000) is 3.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($117,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.