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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

381 San Martin Dr

381 San Martin Dr

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$399,900

2 bd · 2 ba · Listed 26d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1983

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

7,434

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-03T17:37:17.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$23,671

ADR

$195

Occupancy

33%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,686

Confidence

Low (37.25), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$11,040$20,478$32,291
  • Cozy Mountain Escape with Fireplace Charm

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $8,997ADR $232Occ ≈ 11%4.5★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern cabin with a hot tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $44,435ADR $166Occ ≈ 73%4.8★ (269)

    Airbnb

  • Maple leaf retreat #2330

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,973ADR $410Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Mountain Escape • Fire Pit + Near Lake Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,831ADR $221Occ ≈ 18%5★ (76)

    Airbnb

  • Serene Cabin Gated Yard Dogs Kids King Bed Coffee

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,256ADR $121Occ ≈ 53%4.9★ (102)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Floor to ceiling windows! Couples, Smart TV, Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,251ADR $276Occ ≈ 14%4★ (11)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine Knot Smart Cabin - huge backyard w/ fire pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $26,604ADR $141Occ ≈ 52%4.8★ (130)

    Airbnb

  • Summer Cozy•AC•Hot Tub•Fire Pit•BBQ•EV•King Beds

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $52,166ADR $346Occ ≈ 41%5★ (110)

    Airbnb

  • Sunshine Haus @sunshinehaus.bigbearlake

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $23,542ADR $237Occ ≈ 27%5★ (214)

    Airbnb

  • No Pet Fee! Hike, Hammock, Fish. Enclosed yard.

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $8,976ADR $248Occ ≈ 10%5★ (35)

    Airbnb

Show all 50 comps
  • Sugarloaf Charmer w/ Cozy Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,447ADR $241Occ ≈ 8%3★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Aframe,Pickleball,AC,Spa,E-scooters,SUPBoards,Yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $43,466ADR $364Occ ≈ 33%5★ (108)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Super Cute/Fenced/Pet Friendly/Walk 2 Park/Sleep 6

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $4,044ADR $404Occ ≈ 3%5★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Relaxing Bruin Chalet- Central BB Retreat Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $35,183ADR $344Occ ≈ 28%4.5★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Fairytale Mountain Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,406ADR $157Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (20)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Cabin with Hot Tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $19,452ADR $388Occ ≈ 14%5★ (10)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy-family friendly home with jacuzzi!

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $3,943ADR $175Occ ≈ 6%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Redwood Elegance - 2BR/2BA/Forest Views/Deck/WiFi

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $19,529ADR $283Occ ≈ 19%3.6★ (6)

    AirbnbBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Fairytale Mountain Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $39,210ADR $236Occ ≈ 46%5★ (63)

    Airbnb

  • Elk Run Cabin Covered parking + Private Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $24,630ADR $405Occ ≈ 17%5★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Mountain Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $33,540ADR $155Occ ≈ 59%4.8★ (128)

    Airbnb

  • Misty Mountain Hideaway | Full AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $38,137ADR $179Occ ≈ 58%4.9★ (666)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sleepy Hollow-Spa, Pets Ok, FencedDeck, Firepit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $28,543ADR $254Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (148)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cabin Bliss: Hot Tub, Fire Pit & Near The Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $5,360ADR $295Occ ≈ 5%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • *Serene Deck*Near Sports Park*FREE Snacks

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $15,278ADR $164Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (37)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Mountain Cabin w/ Fireplace & Deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $7,009ADR $177Occ ≈ 11%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet friendly family cabin with game room

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $56,198ADR $204Occ ≈ 75%5★ (34)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Views and Dogs OK - Big Bear Treehouse

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $26,660ADR $136Occ ≈ 54%4.3★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Newly remodeled: Cozy Mozy Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $11,779ADR $465Occ ≈ 7%4.8★ (67)

    Airbnb

  • The Raccoon Retreat + Firepit + Spa + BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $23,782ADR $177Occ ≈ 37%2.9★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear 2 Bedroom Cabin w/ Hot Tub and EV Charger

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $23,278ADR $205Occ ≈ 31%5★ (76)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Mountain Cabin-Dogs Welcome-Grill-Pines

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $12,804ADR $216Occ ≈ 16%5★ (210)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Raccoon Retreat + Firepit + Spa + BBQ

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $25,411ADR $211Occ ≈ 33%4.4★ (17)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Treehouse | Hot Tub | Views & Pets OK

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $37,575ADR $239Occ ≈ 43%4.8★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • MOUNTAIN DREAM LODGE

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $10,794ADR $245Occ ≈ 12%4.8★ (112)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain Dream Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $706ADR $353Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Private Hot Tub Retreat + Fire pit in Big Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $24,427ADR $346Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (67)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Cabin Rental with an Indoor Fireplace in Big Bear City, California

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $44,935ADR $423Occ ≈ 29%—

    Booking

  • Modern Mountain Cabin w/ EV Charger - Pets Welcome

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $16,855ADR $230Occ ≈ 20%4.9★ (74)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Red Door Retreat- Cozy 2 Bed 1 Bath W/ AC-Pets ok

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $17,589ADR $283Occ ≈ 17%5★ (58)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Maple Hill Lodge, Cozy 2 Bedroom sleeps 4

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $10,691ADR $322Occ ≈ 9%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Cozy 2 bedroom, 2 story Cabin, Sleeps 4, Wifi

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $15,119ADR $376Occ ≈ 11%5★ (25)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Big Bear Pine Haven Cabin: Hot Tub Games

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $44,102ADR $151Occ ≈ 80%4.8★ (58)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Open Layout Cabin!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $38,313ADR $198Occ ≈ 53%4.8★ (276)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Summer Cabin | Hot Tub, Fire Pit, Near Lake Stay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $13,909ADR $315Occ ≈ 12%5★ (24)

    Airbnb

  • Inn The Mountains

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $21,426ADR $86Occ ≈ 68%4.8★ (303)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Cabin w/ Hot Tub 5 Mi to Big Bear Lake!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $24,380ADR $243Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Sweet Cabin Gateway | Cozy Big Bear Retreat Minute

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $7,979ADR $441Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Adorable Forest Cabin in Big Bear

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $10,187ADR $289Occ ≈ 10%5★ (17)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub + Fire Pit | 2 Full Baths | Near Ski+Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $54,104ADR $231Occ ≈ 64%4.8★ (255)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$23,671

NOI

$6,405

Cash flow /mo

-$1,621

Cash needed

$131,971

Cash-on-cash

-14.7%

ROE (yr 1)

-3.7%

Cap rate

1.6%

DSCR

0.25

Year-1 write-off

$116,834

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$37,387

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$19,454
  • Principal paydown$2,617
  • Appreciation at%$11,997
ROE-3.7%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)24.7%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,734
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$710
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,184
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,999
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,039

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$99,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$15,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$37,387

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$320,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$100,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$117,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$37,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $220,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1983, 2 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $75,000 in year 1 (18% short-life, $24,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$65,100
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $9,400
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $7,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $2,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $1,000
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $3,700
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $3,600 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $3,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $7,400
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $4,400
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $8,600
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$51,100
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 2.66 allocation

    $10,300
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 2.66 allocation

    $9,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 2.66 allocation

    $1,800
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 2.66 allocation

    $21,000
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.66 allocation

    $8,000
Building, 39-year$219,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,800 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $161,700
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $16,700
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $16,000
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $16,800
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $5,400 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $5,800
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.66 allocation

    $2,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$65,100$51,100$700$116,800
2$0$0$5,600$5,600
3$0$0$5,600$5,600
4$0$0$5,600$5,600
5$0$0$5,600$5,600
6+$0$0$196,500$196,500
Total$65,100$51,100$219,800$335,900

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.