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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1834 Winterwood Ct

1834 Winterwood Ct

Redding, CA 96002

$368,800

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,276 sqft · Listed 11d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1986

Sqft

1,276

Lot sqft

8,276

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-18T22:03:13.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$35,683

ADR

$154

Occupancy

63%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,034

Confidence

Low (41.16), 5 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$13,556$36,486$46,864
  • Timber Haven- Cozy Nest w/Hot Tub & EV Charger

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $50,959ADR $221Occ ≈ 63%5★ (205)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Calm, Cozy & Clean (5 beds + pooltable & foosball)

    House · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $36,486ADR $198Occ ≈ 50%5★ (199)

    Airbnb

  • Sweet Escape. Cozy, central, fireplace & Netflix.

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $46,864ADR $162Occ ≈ 79%4.8★ (394)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy 3/2 Mid-Century Modern Home With Backyard

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $10,721ADR $101Occ ≈ 29%4.8★ (8)

    Airbnb

  • LUXE Modern getaway retreat

    House · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $13,556ADR $154Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (7)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$35,683

NOI

$15,277

Cash flow /mo

-$714

Cash needed

$126,452

Cash-on-cash

-6.8%

ROE (yr 1)

3.9%

Cap rate

4.1%

DSCR

0.64

Year-1 write-off

$114,888

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$36,764

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$8,571
  • Principal paydown$2,413
  • Appreciation at%$11,064
ROE3.9%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)33.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,137
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,070
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,784
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,610
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,157

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$92,200
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$14,752
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$36,764

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$284,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$95,000 · 33%

Year-1 deduction

$115,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$37,000

Land 23% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $190,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,276 sq ft, built 1986, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (covered patio, fence, flooring types).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $93,000 in year 1 (26% short-life, $30,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$71,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,600 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $9,000
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $7,400
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,200 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $2,400
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $1,300
  • Window coverings (13)default

    $3,300 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $3,400
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $8,600
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,700 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $7,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $4,300
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $8,500
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$42,500
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,400 new × 50% good × 2.63 allocation

    $9,700
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,100 new × 50% good × 2.63 allocation

    $9,400
  • Covered patiolisting

    $10,500 new × 50% good × 2.63 allocation

    $13,800
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,300 new × 50% good × 2.63 allocation

    $1,700
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.63 allocation

    $7,900
Building, 39-year$189,500
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $137,900 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $145,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $14,300 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $15,100
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $13,400 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $14,200
  • HVACdefault

    $14,400 new × 40% good × 2.63 allocation

    $15,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$71,800$42,500$600$114,900
2$0$0$4,900$4,900
3$0$0$4,900$4,900
4$0$0$4,900$4,900
5$0$0$4,900$4,900
6+$0$0$169,500$169,500
Total$71,800$42,500$189,500$303,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.