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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

417 E Mountain View Blvd

417 E Mountain View Blvd

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$435,000

3 bd · 2 ba · Listed 18d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1988

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

4,794

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-11T20:59:18.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$30,358

ADR

$286

Occupancy

29%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,368

Confidence

Low (29.62), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$12,677$25,968$39,019
  • Blue Bear Lodge Big Bear- Spacious Single-Level Family Retreat

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 59 ft

    Revenue $25,440ADR $1,269Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Blue Bear Lodge Big Bear- Foosball- Forest Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 66 ft

    Revenue $13,782ADR $621Occ ≈ 6%4★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Blue Mountain Cottage (dog&kid friendly, hot tub)

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 154 ft

    Revenue $74,551ADR $292Occ ≈ 70%5★ (366)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Delightful 3-bedroom cabin with hot tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 302 ft

    Revenue $45,651ADR $233Occ ≈ 54%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Lilac Lodge, The Ultimate Getaway!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 315 ft

    Revenue $13,353ADR $230Occ ≈ 16%4.7★ (29)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Wifi, Pool Table, Patio BBQ, Deck, Fireplace, TV+

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 348 ft

    Revenue $30,264ADR $291Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (562)

    Airbnb

  • Bearadise Cabin - Circa 1930s Big Bear Cabin

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 410 ft

    Revenue $1,686ADR $205Occ ≈ 2%—

    Airbnb

  • Built 2021! 1600 sq ft new home! Rejuvenate/relax

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 430 ft

    Revenue $26,496ADR $190Occ ≈ 38%4.8★ (130)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Relaxing Bearadise Cottage at Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 486 ft

    Revenue $48,203ADR $400Occ ≈ 33%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Relaxing Bearadise Cottage at Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 509 ft

    Revenue $59,422ADR $509Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 50 comps
  • 5 Mi to Big Bear Lake: Cozy Cottage w/ Hot Tub

    Cottage · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $25,307ADR $245Occ ≈ 28%4.7★ (46)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5 Mi to Big Bear Lake: Cozy Cottage w/ Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $31,818ADR $254Occ ≈ 34%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Bearadise Cabin -dog-friendly w/ spa & fire pit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $21,787ADR $336Occ ≈ 18%4.4★ (23)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Designer Cottage | Hot tub | fire pit | BBQ grill

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $50,091ADR $293Occ ≈ 47%4.8★ (219)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Casa de Oso Big Bear: BBQ Grill!Game Tables & more

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $36,755ADR $261Occ ≈ 39%4.8★ (45)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large Family Cabin with Gameroom

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,927ADR $302Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (90)

    Airbnb

  • Holiday Nights: hot tub & fireside relaxation

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,060ADR $619Occ ≈ 4%4.9★ (38)

    Airbnb

  • Spacious ❤️Master🛌 Sauna,🔥 Theater,📽 Library, 📚Pool,🎱🎯 BBQ🍔

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,309ADR $903Occ ≈ 11%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub • Vintage Charm • Gated Yard • Poker Table

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,600ADR $210Occ ≈ 54%5★ (196)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Corner Cabin • AC • Spa • Game room • Dog Friendly

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $75,134ADR $375Occ ≈ 55%4.8★ (169)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Single Level Home w/Entry Ramp In Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,604ADR $349Occ ≈ 10%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Atlas Ridge Cabin | NEW! Cozy, Hot Tub, Fireplace

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $5,198ADR $337Occ ≈ 4%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Bear's Den Retreat Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,776ADR $409Occ ≈ 2%4.8★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Black bear bunker

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,462ADR $210Occ ≈ 2%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Great space for family time!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,181ADR $446Occ ≈ 10%5★ (28)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Mountain Retreat w/ Jacuzzi & Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $38,415ADR $315Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (382)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5 Mi to Fresh Powder! Big Bear Family Home

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,434ADR $306Occ ≈ 29%4.5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Peaceful Cabin: Hot Tub, Fire Pit and Pool Table

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,013ADR $272Occ ≈ 36%4.9★ (111)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Relaxing Mountain Retreat in Big Bear

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,574ADR $234Occ ≈ 4%5★ (86)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game Room! Close to Slopes, Village & LAKE PC

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $47,937ADR $560Occ ≈ 23%4.8★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet-friendly Cabin with Private Patio Perfect for Hiking Trails in Big Bear City, California

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,382ADR $397Occ ≈ 2%—

    Booking

  • Elysian Cabin | Enclosed Yard · Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $21,080ADR $326Occ ≈ 18%4.9★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • FOUR SEASON CABIN

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,977ADR $525Occ ≈ 15%4.7★ (102)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Classic Big Bear

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $5,094ADR $262Occ ≈ 5%4.2★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Hideaway • Earthy & Chic 3BR, Game Room, AC

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,917ADR $327Occ ≈ 34%4.9★ (47)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Hideaway in Big Bear

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $39,087ADR $305Occ ≈ 35%—

    Booking

  • Atlas Ridge Cabin | Cozy, HotTub, Arcade, Firepit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $1,780ADR $286Occ ≈ 2%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Bungalow ~ Cozy Mountain Big Bear Cottage

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $15,577ADR $454Occ ≈ 9%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beary Cozy Cabin - With AC

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $9,845ADR $574Occ ≈ 5%5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private Hot Tub, Fire table, Barbecue, Dogs Ok

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $16,056ADR $402Occ ≈ 11%5★ (18)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Log Cabin w/ Fenced Yard & Fire Pit, Sleeps 8

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,156ADR $359Occ ≈ 15%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain Views- Gaming Table- Dog Friendly-Firepit

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $38,816ADR $216Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin | Fenced Yard | Dogs Welcome

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,667ADR $220Occ ≈ 10%5★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Goldilocks Cabin for All Your Bears

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,894ADR $232Occ ≈ 15%5★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Ski-Inspired Retreat - Fireplace,Close to Skiing!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $3,884ADR $211Occ ≈ 5%4.2★ (10)

    Airbnb

  • The Holiday Cabin with Hot Tub & EV Charging

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $45,326ADR $329Occ ≈ 38%5★ (98)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Family Cabin-Fireplace & Near Ski Lifts/Hikes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $29,628ADR $114Occ ≈ 71%4.8★ (35)

    Airbnb

  • Luxury Home-Comfy Bed-Hot Tub-Office-Family-Pets

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $41,668ADR $285Occ ≈ 40%5★ (125)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Pet Friendly Big Bear Cabin

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $20,654ADR $257Occ ≈ 22%3.8★ (2)

    Booking

  • Rustic A-Frame: Pool Table and Forest Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $64,092ADR $257Occ ≈ 68%4.8★ (107)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$30,358

NOI

$10,654

Cash flow /mo

-$1,456

Cash needed

$145,650

Cash-on-cash

-12.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.1%

Cap rate

2.4%

DSCR

0.38

Year-1 write-off

$122,546

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$39,215

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$17,474
  • Principal paydown$2,847
  • Appreciation at%$13,050
ROE-1.1%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)25.8%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,072
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$911
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,518
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$5,438
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,219

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$108,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$17,400
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$39,215

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$371,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$102,000 · 28%

Year-1 deduction

$123,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$39,000

Land 15% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $268,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: ~1,900 sq ft (from beds), built 1988, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, patio, fireplace, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $75,000 in year 1 (15% short-life, $24,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$64,600
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,000 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $9,500
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $7,800
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,300 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $3,200
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $1,100
  • Window coverings (19)default

    $4,800 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $4,500
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $4,900 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $4,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,800 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $7,400
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,700 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $4,500
  • Appliances (microwave, dishwasher, disposal)listing

    $2,100 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $2,000
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$57,100
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,000 new × 50% good × 2.39 allocation

    $10,800
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,700 new × 50% good × 2.39 allocation

    $10,400
  • Patioslisting

    $8,600 new × 50% good × 2.39 allocation

    $10,200
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $21,400 new × 50% good × 2.39 allocation

    $25,600
Building, 39-year$268,400
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $206,100 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $197,400
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $20,500
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $20,500
  • HVACdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $20,500
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $7,000
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.39 allocation

    $2,500

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$64,600$57,100$900$122,500
2$0$0$6,900$6,900
3$0$0$6,900$6,900
4$0$0$6,900$6,900
5$0$0$6,900$6,900
6+$0$0$240,000$240,000
Total$64,600$57,100$268,400$390,100

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.