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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1309 Ridge Rd

1309 Ridge Rd

Fawnskin, CA 92333

$769,000

2 bd · 2 ba · 1,260 sqft · Listed 21d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1998

Sqft

1,260

Lot sqft

12,000

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-08T19:13:10.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$59,138

ADR

$299

Occupancy

54%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,083

Confidence

Low (30.19), 33 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,791$28,993$45,969
  • High-Top Lakeview Chateau #2520

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 3 ft

    Revenue $90,511ADR $393Occ ≈ 63%—

    Booking

  • High-Top Lakeview Chateau | Relaxing Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 13 ft

    Revenue $82,503ADR $416Occ ≈ 54%4.5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • TOP RATED- Big Bear Stargazer Cabin with Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $26,210ADR $387Occ ≈ 19%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fawnskin Forest Haven

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $34,949ADR $145Occ ≈ 66%—

    Booking

  • Cozy Mountain Escape with Fireplace Charm

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,395ADR $225Occ ≈ 18%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern Retro Cabin w/ Spa And The Best Vibes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $49,453ADR $355Occ ≈ 38%4.5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Happy Tails Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,648ADR $152Occ ≈ 59%5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sierra style cabin on a quiet road in Fawnskin.

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,685ADR $210Occ ≈ 15%4.3★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Idle Ours Cabin ~ Rustic and Cozy Cabin with Firep

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,461ADR $267Occ ≈ 18%4.3★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walkable Forest Retreat; Pet Friendly & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,707ADR $167Occ ≈ 67%4.7★ (39)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 33 comps
  • Big Bear Lake Chalet | Spring Escape & Patio

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $43,891ADR $244Occ ≈ 49%5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountaintop Chalet Big Bear Lake Breathtaking View

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,609ADR $368Occ ≈ 10%4.9★ (49)

    Airbnb

  • SKI 5 Miles | Game Loft | MTN Views | BBQ | WIFI

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,753ADR $212Occ ≈ 63%5★ (362)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Moose Cottage

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $54,884ADR $222Occ ≈ 68%5★ (136)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Lake Cabin w/ Deck ~ 7 Mi to Ski Slopes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $45,969ADR $193Occ ≈ 65%4.9★ (43)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fisherman's Retreat on Big Bear Lake's North Shore

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $18,870ADR $216Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (153)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Astral at Fawnskin Big Bear Lake Views

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $39,102ADR $314Occ ≈ 34%5★ (190)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fawnskin Cabin Retreat Big Yard Firepit & Minutes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $23,308ADR $191Occ ≈ 33%4.6★ (58)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain Getaway | Near Big Bear Lake & Hiking

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $15,791ADR $264Occ ≈ 16%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Welcome to Malu! Hot Tub + Great Views!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $41,165ADR $167Occ ≈ 68%4.9★ (105)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sioux House

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $17,387ADR $137Occ ≈ 35%4.8★ (64)

    AirbnbBooking

  • enjoy a quiet and cozy in cabin in fawnskin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $5,017ADR $200Occ ≈ 7%2.5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Eagles! Hot Tub | Screened Porch | Pets Free

    Tiny house · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $84,168ADR $337Occ ≈ 68%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Forest Cottage w Lake Glimpse & Grill!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $3,858ADR $257Occ ≈ 4%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Classic A-Frame with a Designers Touch!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $28,993ADR $229Occ ≈ 35%4.9★ (176)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lake & Forest Cabin | Hot Tub & Office

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $61,626ADR $215Occ ≈ 79%5★ (122)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Forest Cottage with Lake Views and Grill

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $1,743ADR $174Occ ≈ 3%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Fawnskin Pines Relaxing Mountain Cottage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $17,159ADR $391Occ ≈ 12%4.5★ (24)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fawnskin Pines by Big Bear Vacations Charming Mountain Cottage

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $15,055ADR $566Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Game room and hot tub *Oso-Cozy Cabin*

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $56,252ADR $225Occ ≈ 68%4.8★ (187)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fawnskin pines #2259

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $34,840ADR $586Occ ≈ 16%—

    Booking

  • "The Little Red Cabin" Big Bear / Fawnskin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $12,315ADR $210Occ ≈ 16%5★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy ‘lil Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $16,976ADR $169Occ ≈ 28%4.9★ (18)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$59,138

NOI

$25,998

Cash flow /mo

-$1,977

Cash needed

$239,010

Cash-on-cash

-9.9%

ROE (yr 1)

1.8%

Cap rate

3.4%

DSCR

0.52

Year-1 write-off

$179,878

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$57,561

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$23,728
  • Principal paydown$5,032
  • Appreciation at%$23,070
ROE1.8%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)25.9%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$11,828
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,774
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,957
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$9,613
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,922

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$192,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$30,760
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$57,561

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$585,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$163,000 · 28%

Year-1 deduction

$180,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$58,000

Land 24% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $422,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 1,260 sq ft, built 1998, 2 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $114,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $37,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$111,400
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,600 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $15,400
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $12,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,200 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $4,000
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $500
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $1,600
  • Window coverings (13)default

    $3,300 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $5,800
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (25% of floors)listing

    $2,000 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $3,600
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,700 new × 44% good × 4.49 allocation

    $13,200
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,000 new × 44% good × 4.49 allocation

    $8,000
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $14,600
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $16,200
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$67,100
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,400 new × 50% good × 4.49 allocation

    $16,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,100 new × 50% good × 4.49 allocation

    $15,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,200 new × 50% good × 4.49 allocation

    $2,800
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $14,200 new × 50% good × 4.49 allocation

    $31,800
Building, 39-year$422,300
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $136,500 new × 53% good × 4.49 allocation

    $327,000
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $14,100 new × 44% good × 4.49 allocation

    $27,900
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $13,200 new × 44% good × 4.49 allocation

    $26,200
  • HVACdefault

    $14,200 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $25,500
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $6,100 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $10,900
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 4.49 allocation

    $4,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$111,400$67,100$1,400$179,900
2$0$0$10,800$10,800
3$0$0$10,800$10,800
4$0$0$10,800$10,800
5$0$0$10,800$10,800
6+$0$0$377,700$377,700
Total$111,400$67,100$422,300$600,900

The building's share of the price ($585,000) is 4.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($130,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.