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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

451 Pineview Dr

451 Pineview Dr

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$698,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,216 sqft · Listed 9d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

2017

Sqft

2,216

Lot sqft

7,710

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-20T16:44:00Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$46,561

ADR

$483

Occupancy

26%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,719

Confidence

Med (52.65), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$26,864$47,732$58,692
  • Modern Mountain Cabin w/ Hot Tub, Game Room & Fire

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $47,406ADR $665Occ ≈ 20%5★ (106)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mama Bear Den

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $25,843ADR $419Occ ≈ 17%4.8★ (31)

    Airbnb

  • Big Tree Lodge: Ping Pong! Fireplace! Propane BBQ!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,075ADR $461Occ ≈ 14%4.7★ (41)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Hideaway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $33,075ADR $502Occ ≈ 18%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Oktoberfest, Ski slopes, and the Village

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $57,775ADR $705Occ ≈ 22%5★ (128)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $51,529ADR $612Occ ≈ 23%5★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Four Seasons 4 BR Cabin, Views, Games & Hot Tub

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $50,682ADR $401Occ ≈ 35%5★ (100)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sleeps 10-Near Oktoberfest & FamilyRecreationArea

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $29,622ADR $364Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (172)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family-Friendly Home w/ Hot Tub in Big Bear!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $55,964ADR $469Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (61)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Misty Tree Top Chalet

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $58,624ADR $441Occ ≈ 36%5★ (2)

    Booking

Show all 50 comps
  • 2500SQF Family & Friends Big Bear Vacation Home!

    Cottage · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $56,425ADR $213Occ ≈ 73%4.5★ (145)

    Airbnb

  • Adventure Bearadise | Big Bear Lake • Ski • Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $16,038ADR $538Occ ≈ 8%5★ (149)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beary Cozy Cabin:Log Cabin!Spa!Foosball!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $19,411ADR $480Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Cabin · Hot Tub · 7 Min to Ski Resorts!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $39,219ADR $485Occ ≈ 22%4.9★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet Friendly! 2 Master Suites! Fenced Yard!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $47,732ADR $372Occ ≈ 35%4.9★ (63)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious Cabin Near Snowplay,Lake & Ski Resorts!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $21,617ADR $562Occ ≈ 11%4.8★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Octoberfest | 4BR Big Bear Retreat

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $59,514ADR $412Occ ≈ 40%4.9★ (54)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large 4 bedroom cabin with Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $49,529ADR $321Occ ≈ 42%4.8★ (384)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fox Farm Cabin | Hot Tub, Fenced Yard

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $26,864ADR $510Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 4BR house close to skiing, hiking, lake & village

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $50,784ADR $741Occ ≈ 19%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxe Retreat | Hot Tub | Theater | AC | Firepit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $34,109ADR $550Occ ≈ 17%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Juniper Lodge: Spa! Fenced! Pet Friendly! Games!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $46,899ADR $439Occ ≈ 29%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • NEW! Boulder Luxe Estate-Luxury Retreat

    House · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $71,330ADR $939Occ ≈ 21%5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family-Friendly Luxury Home with Games & Decks

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $25,315ADR $620Occ ≈ 11%4.1★ (9)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Boulder Estate. Hot Tub in Boulders. Views. Games.

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $69,690ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.8★ (45)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large 4 Bedroom Cabin. Family Friendly

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $9,815ADR $392Occ ≈ 7%5★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxe Mountain Home on Big Bear Eagle Preserve

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $75,603ADR $439Occ ≈ 47%4.8★ (353)

    Airbnb

  • Lux Spacious with 2 Masters!MountainViews!HotTub!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 15 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $79,488ADR $628Occ ≈ 35%4.8★ (67)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stony Creek Cabin - Gorgeous home in the Eagle Mountain Estates

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $47,336ADR $666Occ ≈ 19%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Stony Creek Retreat ~ Charming Mountain Escape

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $25,524ADR $591Occ ≈ 12%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Stony Creek Retreat #708

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $66,462ADR $886Occ ≈ 21%—

    Booking

  • Stony Creek Retreat ~ Charming Mountain escape close to skiing, hiking, the lake, and the Village

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $62,829ADR $1,007Occ ≈ 17%—

    Booking

  • Timberline View Estate - Log Cabin with Hot Tub, Pool Table, Sleeps 10, Expansive Deck & Views

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $14,454ADR $722Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Grandma Big Bear's House is a warm family home!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $21,466ADR $566Occ ≈ 10%5★ (90)

    Airbnb

  • Luxury Mountain Lodge:A/C!OutdoorLiving!PoolTable!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $49,409ADR $537Occ ≈ 25%4.8★ (102)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Extravagant Big Bear Home, Spa, Large Yard, Pets

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $69,993ADR $493Occ ≈ 39%5★ (151)

    Airbnb

  • Luxury 4 Bd Family Cabin In The Exclusive Castle Glen Estates

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $19,451ADR $659Occ ≈ 8%5★ (151)

    Vrbo

  • Spacious Big Bear Home w/ Game Room + Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $47,249ADR $675Occ ≈ 19%4.2★ (25)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Castle Rock. Spa, BBQ, and the Best Views. AC

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $91,700ADR $754Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (90)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • LUX Custom Log Cabin! Movie Theater/Game Room!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $61,609ADR $665Occ ≈ 25%4.8★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Copper Pine Retreat / Spa, Large Back yard,

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $17,282ADR $547Occ ≈ 9%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear White Skies ~ Fantastic cabin with fireplace, game room, mountain view, & hot tub

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $71,841ADR $933Occ ≈ 21%—

    Booking

  • Big Bear White Skies #674

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $94,181ADR $1,070Occ ≈ 24%—

    Booking

  • Big Bear White Skies – Family Cabin with Hot Tub,

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $45,144ADR $783Occ ≈ 16%4.7★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Stork and Bear Cabin: Luxury! Pool Table!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $31,284ADR $688Occ ≈ 12%4.8★ (50)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Castle Glen Gem: Pool Table! Mountain Views! WiFi!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $56,189ADR $587Occ ≈ 26%4.6★ (52)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • ‘Dancing Bear Lodge’ ~ 1 Mi to Big Bear Lake!

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $53,079ADR $610Occ ≈ 24%4.4★ (4)

    Booking

  • Ultimate year-round retreat! Gameroom*HotTub*Sauna

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $58,692ADR $659Occ ≈ 24%4.7★ (7)

    Airbnb

  • Fox Farm, Fireplace, Deck, BBQ, Sleeps 11

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $0ADR $0Occ ≈ —4★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet-friendly cabinTwo kitchensBBQGame room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $36,150ADR $464Occ ≈ 21%4.3★ (38)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$46,561

NOI

$18,086

Cash flow /mo

-$2,254

Cash needed

$225,420

Cash-on-cash

-12.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-0.7%

Cap rate

2.6%

DSCR

0.40

Year-1 write-off

$138,874

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,440

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$27,049
  • Principal paydown$4,568
  • Appreciation at%$20,940
ROE-0.7%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)19.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$9,312
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,397
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,328
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$8,725
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,560

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$174,500
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$27,920
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$44,440

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$626,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$114,000 · 18%

Year-1 deduction

$139,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,000

Land 10% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $512,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 2,216 sq ft, built 2017, 4 bd / 3.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, stone counters, appliance list, wooded lot).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $79,000 in year 1 (9% short-life, $25,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$90,400
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,700 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $13,100
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $10,900 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $13,400
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,900 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $4,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 1.92 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $1,800
  • Window coverings (22)default

    $5,500 new × 40% good × 1.92 allocation

    $4,200
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 1.92 allocation

    $4,400
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,300 new × 82% good × 1.92 allocation

    $13,100
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,000 new × 82% good × 1.92 allocation

    $7,900
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 1.92 allocation

    $4,400
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$46,800
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,800 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $12,000
  • Landscaping (minimal)listing

    $4,700 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $5,800
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,200 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $2,700
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $24,900 new × 55% good × 1.92 allocation

    $26,300
Building, 39-year$511,700
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $240,200 new × 85% good × 1.92 allocation

    $392,300
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $25,000 new × 82% good × 1.92 allocation

    $39,300
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $25,400 new × 82% good × 1.92 allocation

    $40,000
  • HVACdefault

    $25,000 new × 55% good × 1.92 allocation

    $26,400
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $8,600 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $10,500
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 64% good × 1.92 allocation

    $3,200

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$90,400$46,800$1,600$138,900
2$0$0$13,100$13,100
3$0$0$13,100$13,100
4$0$0$13,100$13,100
5$0$0$13,100$13,100
6+$0$0$457,600$457,600
Total$90,400$46,800$511,700$648,900

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.