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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

64 Grice Woods Rd

64 Grice Woods Rd

Blue Ridge, GA 30513

$660,000

4 bd · 3 ba · 2,520 sqft · Listed 12d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

2007

Sqft

2,520

Lot sqft

85,378

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-15T14:54:11.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$37,973

ADR

$261

Occupancy

40%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,950

Confidence

Med (53.71), 10 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$20,986$38,903$46,590

  • The Stargazer *Hot Tub*Firepit*Views*Toccoa River*

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 135 ft

    Revenue $36,300ADR $248Occ ≈ 40%5★ (99)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Connect - View, hot tub, game room, fire pit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 348 ft

    Revenue $17,917ADR $270Occ ≈ 18%5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Blue Ridge - Creek Front Paradise w/great outdoors

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $50,920ADR $319Occ ≈ 44%5★ (190)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury Cabin w/ views•Toccoa• HotTub•Firept•Pets

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $41,506ADR $256Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (23)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern + moody/master suite/Aska Adventure

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,972ADR $373Occ ≈ 11%5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Creekside Cabin - Whitetail Run!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $11,283ADR $375Occ ≈ 8%4.9★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Whimsical Ways - Hot tub-screen porch-pet friendly

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $59,599ADR $284Occ ≈ 57%5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Higher Hopes - pets, hot tub, games, fire pit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,054ADR $256Occ ≈ 51%5★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Blue Ridge 3BR: Hot Tub Creek Firepit Games

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $42,197ADR $292Occ ≈ 40%5★ (82)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 4BR & 3.5BA Cabin near Toccoa River with Hot Tub and Game Room!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $30,194ADR $254Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (110)

    Vrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$37,973

NOI

$14,044

Cash flow /mo

-$2,386

Cash needed

$214,400

Cash-on-cash

-13.4%

ROE (yr 1)

-2.1%

Cap rate

2.1%

DSCR

0.33

Year-1 write-off

$139,455

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,626

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$28,635
  • Principal paydown$4,319
  • Appreciation at%$19,800
ROE-2.1%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)18.7%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,595
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,139
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,899
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$2,068
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$7,029

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$165,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$26,400
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$44,626

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$653,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$115,000 · 18%

Year-1 deduction

$139,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$45,000

Land 1% (county tax record, market value split) · building $538,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 2,520 sq ft, built 2007, 4 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $85,000 in year 1 (9% short-life, $27,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$81,600

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,300 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $9,900

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $9,300 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $8,100

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,400 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $3,900

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $400

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $1,300

  • Window coverings (25)default

    $6,300 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $5,500

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (25% of floors)listing

    $4,100 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $3,600

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,800 new × 62% good × 2.19 allocation

    $12,000

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,300 new × 62% good × 2.19 allocation

    $7,200

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $6,700

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$56,100

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,400 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $11,400

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,000 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $11,000

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,500 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $2,700

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $28,400 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $31,100
Building, 39-year$538,500

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $273,400 new × 68% good × 2.19 allocation

    $409,200

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $28,400 new × 62% good × 2.19 allocation

    $38,600

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $29,200 new × 62% good × 2.19 allocation

    $39,700

  • HVACdefault

    $28,400 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $24,900

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $12,200 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $10,700

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $2,300

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $13,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$81,600$56,100$1,700$139,500
2$0$0$13,800$13,800
3$0$0$13,800$13,800
4$0$0$13,800$13,800
5$0$0$13,800$13,800
6+$0$0$481,500$481,500
Total$81,600$56,100$538,500$676,200

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.