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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

199 Fox Run Dr

199 Fox Run Dr

Blue Ridge, GA 30513

$845,700

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,160 sqft · Listed 3d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2005

Sqft

4,160

Lot sqft

84,506

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-24T22:27:33.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$80,925

ADR

$376

Occupancy

59%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$15,304

Confidence

Med (58.23), 5 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$48,513$65,492$70,962
  • Lux Cbn, Mtn views, pvt htd pool, spa, pickle ball

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $65,492ADR $562Occ ≈ 32%5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • New Hot Tub! Huge View! Mountaintop Cabin *4BR*

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $96,968ADR $414Occ ≈ 64%5★ (373)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stylish Escape, Stunning View, Pool Table, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $27,673ADR $418Occ ≈ 18%—

    Airbnb

  • Blue Ridge Cabin | Sauna, Hot Tub & Court

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $70,962ADR $477Occ ≈ 41%5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern Rustic Chalet, Hot Tub + Bunk Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $48,513ADR $510Occ ≈ 26%5★ (63)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$80,925

NOI

$43,142

Cash flow /mo

-$962

Cash needed

$245,253

Cash-on-cash

-4.7%

ROE (yr 1)

7.9%

Cap rate

5.1%

DSCR

0.79

Year-1 write-off

$137,385

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$43,963

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$11,544
  • Principal paydown$5,534
  • Appreciation at%$25,371
ROE7.9%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)25.8%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$16,185
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$2,428
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$4,046
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$1,917
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$9,007

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$211,425
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$33,828
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$43,963

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$810,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$135,000 · 17%

Year-1 deduction

$137,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,000

Land 4% (county tax record, market value split) · building $675,000 over 39 years

Based on: 4,160 sq ft, built 2005, 4 bd / 4.5 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list, septic, wooded lot).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $69,000 in year 1 (8% short-life, $22,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$68,500
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $14,900 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $10,400
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $15,300 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $10,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $5,100
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $600 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $1,000
  • Window coverings (42)default

    $10,500 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $7,300
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $11,600 new × 58% good × 1.74 allocation

    $11,700
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $7,000 new × 58% good × 1.74 allocation

    $7,100
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $5,600
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $23,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $9,200
15-year land improvements$66,700
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $13,400 new × 50% good × 1.74 allocation

    $11,600
  • Landscaping (minimal)listing

    $6,400 new × 50% good × 1.74 allocation

    $5,600
  • Patiosdefault

    $4,100 new × 50% good × 1.74 allocation

    $3,600
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $46,800 new × 50% good × 1.74 allocation

    $40,700
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 1.74 allocation

    $5,200
Building, 39-year$675,000
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $452,400 new × 65% good × 1.74 allocation

    $511,800
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $47,000 new × 58% good × 1.74 allocation

    $47,400
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $50,000 new × 58% good × 1.74 allocation

    $50,500
  • HVACdefault

    $46,900 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $32,600
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $26,800 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $18,600
  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 1.74 allocation

    $3,700
  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 1.74 allocation

    $10,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$68,500$66,700$2,200$137,400
2$0$0$17,300$17,300
3$0$0$17,300$17,300
4$0$0$17,300$17,300
5$0$0$17,300$17,300
6+$0$0$603,600$603,600
Total$68,500$66,700$675,000$810,200

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.