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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

315 Caney Creek Rd

315 Caney Creek Rd

Pigeon Forge, TN 37863

$1,175,000

8 bd · 8 ba · 4,028 sqft · Listed 4d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental history

Year built

2004

Sqft

4,028

Lot sqft

20,038

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-23T01:05:16Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$157,332

ADR

$855

Occupancy

50%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$12,515

Confidence

Low (51.38), 9 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$115,515$174,073$186,999

  • Flowing Waters Lodge by Venture Smoky Mountains

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 36 · 33 ft

    Revenue —ADR $1,050Occ ≈ —3.5★ (3)

    —

  • Pigeon Forge - Flowing Waters Lodge - 8 Bedroom - Sleeps 38

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 36 · 33 ft

    Revenue —ADR $1,045Occ ≈ —3.5★ (2)

    Vrbo

  • Angler’s Escape | 8BR Creekside Cabin w/ Hot Tub

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 16 · 79 ft

    Revenue —ADR $982Occ ≈ —4.7★ (65)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Creekside Getaway:Game Room*Fire Pit*Hot Tub*Wifi

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 16 · 243 ft

    Revenue —ADR $1,138Occ ≈ —3.5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Free Daily Activities - Beautiful Creek Setting

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 16 · 351 ft

    Revenue —ADR $1,155Occ ≈ —5★ (28)

    Airbnb

  • Brookshore by AvantStay | Relaxing Backyard Creek

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 16 · 354 ft

    Revenue —ADR $792Occ ≈ —4.7★ (81)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Premier Riverfront Retreat w/ Hot Tub & Games

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 16 · 413 ft

    Revenue —ADR $1,041Occ ≈ —2.8★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 8BR Luxury Creekside Lodge | Theater•Game Room•HT

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 16 · 453 ft

    Revenue —ADR $598Occ ≈ —4.5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Free Daily Activities - Fire Pit-Theater-Game Room

    8 bd · 8 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue —ADR $1,111Occ ≈ —4.9★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$157,332

NOI

$97,893

Cash flow /mo

$1,826

Cash needed

$383,750

Cash-on-cash

5.7%

ROE (yr 1)

16.9%

Cap rate

8.3%

DSCR

1.29

Year-1 write-off

$228,470

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$73,110

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)$21,913
  • Principal paydown$7,689
  • Appreciation at%$35,250
ROE16.9%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)36.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$31,466
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$4,720
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$7,867
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,136
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$7,050

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$293,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$47,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$43,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$73,110

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$1,116,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$182,000 · 16%

Year-1 deduction

$228,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$73,000

Land 5% (county tax record, market value split) · building $934,000 over 39 years · new furniture $43,000

Based on: 4,028 sq ft, built 2004, 8 bd / 8 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, game room, fireplace, flooring types).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $131,000 in year 1 (8% short-life, $42,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$127,600

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $14,600 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $15,200

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $12,000 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $12,500

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $7,300

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $1,300

  • Shelvingdefault

    $2,700 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $2,800

  • Window coverings (40)default

    $10,000 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $10,400

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $11,400 new × 56% good × 2.61 allocation

    $16,600

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $6,900 new × 56% good × 2.61 allocation

    $10,000

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $8,400

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $37,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $37,000

  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$97,800

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $13,200 new × 50% good × 2.61 allocation

    $17,100

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $12,700 new × 50% good × 2.61 allocation

    $16,500

  • Patiosdefault

    $4,000 new × 50% good × 2.61 allocation

    $5,200

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $45,300 new × 50% good × 2.61 allocation

    $59,000
Building, 39-year$933,700

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $436,200 new × 63% good × 2.61 allocation

    $719,800

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $45,500 new × 56% good × 2.61 allocation

    $66,300

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $48,300 new × 56% good × 2.61 allocation

    $70,500

  • HVACdefault

    $45,400 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $47,300

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $25,900 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $27,000

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.61 allocation

    $2,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$127,600$97,800$3,000$228,500
2$0$0$23,900$23,900
3$0$0$23,900$23,900
4$0$0$23,900$23,900
5$0$0$23,900$23,900
6+$0$0$834,900$834,900
Total$127,600$97,800$933,700$1,159,100

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

STR allowed in most of Sevier County; inside Gatlinburg city limits only in overnight-rental zones.