21991 Palo Cedro Dr
Palo Cedro, CA 96073
$899,000
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,099 sqft · Listed 31d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
2020
Sqft
2,099
Lot sqft
206,474
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-08-29T04:04:04.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$22,273
ADR
$154
Occupancy
40%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$1,817
Confidence
Low (—), 4 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gorgeous Lakehouse w/POOL! House | 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $22,044 | $560 | 11% | 5★ (18) | 2.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 RDD airport 30 days House | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $18,338 | $156 | 32% | 4.8★ (187) | 2.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 ***Redding Country Cottage*** House | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 | $29,120 | $84 | 95% | 5★ (39) | 3.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 Belle Maison Pet & Family Friendly MidTerm Stays House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $20,624 | $339 | 17% | 4.9★ (9) | 3.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$22,273
NOI
-$3,312
Cash flow /mo
-$5,120
Cash needed
$280,210
Cash-on-cash
-21.9%
ROE (yr 1)
-10.2%
Cap rate
-0.4%
DSCR
-0.06
Year-1 write-off
$192,409
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$61,571
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$61,444
- Principal paydown$5,883
- Appreciation at%$26,970
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$4,455
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$668
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,114
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$11,238
- Insurance (STR-rated)$5,259
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$224,750
- Closing costs (4.0%)$35,960
- Furnishing (bought new)$19,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$61,571
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$710,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$170,000 · 24%
Year-1 deduction
$192,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$62,000
Land 21% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $540,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000
Based on: 2,099 sq ft, built 2020, 3 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, covered patio, fireplace, flooring types, septic).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $124,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $40,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $15,600
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$10,400 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $12,700
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$8,500 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $5,500
Decorative trimdefault
$3,700 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $300
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 50% good × 1.97 allocation
- $1,800
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $4,100
Window coverings (21)default
$5,300 new × 40% good × 1.97 allocation
- $13,300
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing
$13,500 new × 50% good × 1.97 allocation
- $14,000
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$8,100 new × 88% good × 1.97 allocation
- $8,500
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,900 new × 88% good × 1.97 allocation
- $8,000
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 50% good × 1.97 allocation
- $19,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $14,200
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$9,500 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $13,700
Landscaping (typical)default
$9,100 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $25,900
Covered patiolisting
$17,300 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $32,500
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$23,600 new × 70% good × 1.97 allocation
- $403,500
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$227,800 new × 90% good × 1.97 allocation
- $40,900
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$23,600 new × 88% good × 1.97 allocation
- $41,300
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$23,900 new × 88% good × 1.97 allocation
- $32,600
HVACdefault
$23,600 new × 70% good × 1.97 allocation
- $3,900
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
- $17,900
Septic systemlisting
$12,000 new × 76% good × 1.97 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $103,200 | $86,300 | $2,900 | $192,400 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $13,900 | $13,900 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $13,900 | $13,900 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $13,900 | $13,900 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $13,900 | $13,900 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $481,900 | $481,900 |
| Total | $103,200 | $86,300 | $540,200 | $729,700 |
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.