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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

651 Longbow Way

651 Longbow Way

Pigeon Forge, TN 37863

$1,150,000

3 bd · 3 ba · 2,150 sqft · Listed 5d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Est. land %Negative cash flow

Year built

2026

Sqft

2,150

Lot sqft

871

HOA / mo

$96

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-22T18:16:50Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$46,313

ADR

$199

Occupancy

64%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,974

Confidence

Low (46.62), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$20,957$34,672$46,582

  • Pigeon Forge Mountain View Cabin Rental

    3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0 ft

    Revenue —ADR $202Occ ≈ —4.4★ (22)

    Vrbo

  • Close to Dollywood|Private Sauna|Loft net|Hot Tub

    3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 13 ft

    Revenue —ADR $198Occ ≈ —5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • The 3 Bears is a newly built 3 Bedroom Cabin

    3 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 394 ft

    Revenue —ADR $310Occ ≈ —4.8★ (56)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Tranquil, Modern Cabin Minutes to Dollywood, The Island, Gatlinburg & Smokies

    3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue —ADR $251Occ ≈ —5★ (10)

    Vrbo

  • Downtown, Riverfront PigeonForge

    3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue —ADR $275Occ ≈ —5★ (186)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • On River/Mt. LeConte Views/DwTn

    3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue —ADR $267Occ ≈ —5★ (219)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Wake Up to the River, Walk to the Fun - 3 BR Condo

    3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue —ADR $246Occ ≈ —4.9★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Minutes to Dollywood*Hot Tub*Jacuzzi*King Suites

    3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue —ADR $339Occ ≈ —5★ (133)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5 min to Dollywood - Downtown 7ppl Condo

    3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue —ADR $213Occ ≈ —4.7★ (101)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3BR 7th-Floor | Balcony | Free Attraction Tickets

    3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue —ADR $175Occ ≈ —4.2★ (65)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$46,313

NOI

$20,928

Cash flow /mo

-$4,453

Cash needed

$353,000

Cash-on-cash

-15.1%

ROE (yr 1)

-3.2%

Cap rate

1.8%

DSCR

0.28

Year-1 write-off

$218,691

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$69,981

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$53,435
  • Principal paydown$7,525
  • Appreciation at%$34,500
ROE-3.2%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)16.6%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$9,263
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,389
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,316
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$1,152
  • Property tax$165
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$6,900

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$287,500
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$46,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$69,981

No county tax record split for property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split, so those use market defaults — edit the price above; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$978,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$197,000 · 20%

Year-1 deduction

$219,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$70,000

Land 15% (market default, no usable tax-record split) · building $781,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 2,150 sq ft, built 2026, 3 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $153,000 in year 1 (13% short-life, $49,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$159,300

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,500 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $25,900

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,600 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $21,200

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,800 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $9,300

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $1,100

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $3,000

  • Window coverings (22)default

    $5,500 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $13,500

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $5,500 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $13,600

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,200 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $20,100

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,900 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $12,200

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $19,900

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$56,900

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,600 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $23,700

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,200 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $22,800

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,100 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $5,200

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,100 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $5,200
Building, 39-year$780,800

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $233,300 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $574,300

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $24,200 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $59,600

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $24,500 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $60,400

  • HVACdefault

    $24,200 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $59,600

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $8,300 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $20,400

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 100% good × 2.46 allocation

    $6,500

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$159,300$56,900$2,500$218,700
2$0$0$20,000$20,000
3$0$0$20,000$20,000
4$0$0$20,000$20,000
5$0$0$20,000$20,000
6+$0$0$698,200$698,200
Total$159,300$56,900$780,800$997,000

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

STR allowed in most of Sevier County; inside Gatlinburg city limits only in overnight-rental zones.