22712 Rovern Ranch Rd
Palo Cedro, CA 96073
$1,150,000
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,504 sqft · Listed 25d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1988
Sqft
2,504
Lot sqft
304,920
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-09-04T17:42:54.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$49,483
ADR
$255
Occupancy
53%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$6,270
Confidence
Low (37.22), 5 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Modern Vacation Ranch
House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 1.4 mi
Revenue $74,470ADR $388Occ ≈ 53%5★ (7)
Palo Cedro Country Family Home on Creek
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 1.5 mi
Revenue $10,799ADR $221Occ ≈ 13%—
-The Bluebird- Located on our Flower Farm
Farm stay · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.6 mi
Revenue $70,144ADR $494Occ ≈ 39%5★ (11)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gorgeous Lakehouse w/POOL! House | 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $22,044 | $560 | 11% | 5★ (18) | 1.0 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Modern Vacation Ranch House | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $74,470 | $388 | 53% | 5★ (7) | 1.4 mi | Airbnb |
Palo Cedro Country Family Home on Creek House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $10,799 | $221 | 13% | — | 1.5 mi | Airbnb |
Amazing Pool & Waterslide/Basketball/Pickleball Ct Guest suite | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 | $78,665 | $525 | 41% | 5★ (70) | 1.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
-The Bluebird- Located on our Flower Farm Farm stay | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $70,144 | $494 | 39% | 5★ (11) | 1.6 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$49,483
NOI
$12,050
Cash flow /mo
-$5,193
Cash needed
$359,000
Cash-on-cash
-17.4%
ROE (yr 1)
-5.7%
Cap rate
1.0%
DSCR
0.16
Year-1 write-off
$208,778
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$66,809
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$62,313
- Principal paydown$7,525
- Appreciation at%$34,500
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$9,897
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,484
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,474
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$14,375
- Insurance (STR-rated)$6,728
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$287,500
- Closing costs (4.0%)$46,000
- Furnishing (bought new)$25,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$66,809
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$834,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$181,000 · 22%
Year-1 deduction
$209,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$67,000
Land 28% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $653,000 over 39 years · new furniture $26,000
Based on: 2,504 sq ft, built 1988, 3 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, septic).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $159,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $51,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $19,200
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$11,300 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $15,700
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$9,200 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $7,500
Decorative trimdefault
$4,400 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $500
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $2,000
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $10,600
Window coverings (25)default
$6,300 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $13,700
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (50% of floors)listing
$8,100 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $15,000
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$8,800 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $9,000
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$5,300 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $13,800
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $19,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $6,000
Game-room equipment bought newlisting
$6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $22,100
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$10,400 new × 50% good × 4.26 allocation
- $21,200
Landscaping (typical)default
$10,000 new × 50% good × 4.26 allocation
- $5,300
Patiosdefault
$2,500 new × 50% good × 4.26 allocation
- $7,400
Irrigationlisting
$3,500 new × 50% good × 4.26 allocation
- $5,300
Decks & porches (attached)default
$2,500 new × 50% good × 4.26 allocation
- $12,800
Fencinglisting
$6,000 new × 50% good × 4.26 allocation
- $463,300
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$272,100 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $48,000
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$28,200 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $49,400
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$29,000 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $48,000
HVACdefault
$28,200 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $13,700
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$8,100 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $4,500
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 4.26 allocation
- $25,500
Septic systemlisting
$12,000 new × 50% good × 4.26 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $132,600 | $74,100 | $2,100 | $208,800 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $16,700 | $16,700 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $16,700 | $16,700 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $16,700 | $16,700 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $16,700 | $16,700 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $583,500 | $583,500 |
| Total | $132,600 | $74,100 | $652,600 | $859,200 |
The building's share of the price ($834,000) is 4.3x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($196,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.