2021 Wildhorse Ln
Big Bear, CA 92315
$449,000
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,521 sqft · Listed 5d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1988
Sqft
1,521
Lot sqft
8,999
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-09-24T18:19:03.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$27,081
ADR
$252
Occupancy
29%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$5,347
Confidence
Low (49.49), 16 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Beary Peaceful
Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $40,091ADR $249Occ ≈ 44%—
Beary Peaceful Fam Retreat; Ping Pong, SPA & AC
Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $43,436ADR $295Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (75)
Entire Home • 4 Beds • 3 Bedroom Big Bear
House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $19,757ADR $327Occ ≈ 17%5★ (135)
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub!
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $23,433ADR $342Occ ≈ 19%5★ (45)
Hershey Bear Cabin:NEW! Igloo,Hot Tub,Dog Friendly
Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $38,403ADR $409Occ ≈ 26%4.9★ (47)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STAR WARS family cabin+HOT TUB+EV outlet+GAME R00M Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $41,852 | $321 | 36% | 5★ (228) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Summer retreat-Hot Tub, Arcade, Play Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $41,395 | $302 | 38% | 4.8★ (87) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Beach to Mountains Chalet Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $11,981 | $212 | 15% | 5★ (14) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Beary Peaceful Vacation home | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $40,091 | $249 | 44% | — | 0.3 mi | Booking |
Beary Peaceful Fam Retreat; Ping Pong, SPA & AC Cabin | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $43,436 | $295 | 40% | 4.8★ (75) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
Entire Home • 4 Beds • 3 Bedroom Big Bear House | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 | $19,757 | $327 | 17% | 5★ (135) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Cedar Creek House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,454 | $229 | 17% | 4.6★ (62) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Big Bear Getaway! Chalet | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $28,638 | $185 | 42% | 4.7★ (222) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $23,433 | $342 | 19% | 5★ (45) | 0.6 mi | Airbnb |
Hershey Bear Cabin:NEW! Igloo,Hot Tub,Dog Friendly Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $38,403 | $409 | 26% | 4.9★ (47) | 0.6 mi | Airbnb |
Show all 16 comps
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lincoln Log Cabin | Renovated | Near Attractions House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $13,764 | $366 | 10% | 4.5★ (8) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
 Gorgeous Newly Remodeled Cabin Minutes from slopes House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,251 | $240 | 16% | 5★ (35) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 'The Bear's Den' Cabin: 8 Mi to Snow Summit! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $20,669 | $336 | 17% | 4.2★ (55) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 Peaceful, 3 BD Modern Cabin & Game Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $10,578 | $264 | 11% | 4.9★ (20) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbBooking |
 A Frame Escape ! Fully fenced! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $20,640 | $134 | 42% | 4.5★ (165) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 Bluebird Haven Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $10,517 | $272 | 11% | 5★ (19) | 0.8 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$27,081
NOI
$8,069
Cash flow /mo
-$1,747
Cash needed
$149,710
Cash-on-cash
-14.0%
ROE (yr 1)
-3.0%
Cap rate
1.8%
DSCR
0.28
Year-1 write-off
$110,312
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$35,300
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$20,965
- Principal paydown$2,938
- Appreciation at%$13,470
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$5,416
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$812
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,354
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$6,282
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,290
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$112,250
- Closing costs (4.0%)$17,960
- Furnishing (bought new)$19,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$35,300
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$359,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$90,000 · 25%
Year-1 deduction
$110,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$35,000
Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $269,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000
Based on: 1,521 sq ft, built 1988, 3 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fence, fireplace, appliance list).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $83,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $27,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $11,000
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$9,100 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $9,000
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$7,500 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $3,200
Decorative trimdefault
$2,700 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $400
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $1,400
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $4,500
Window coverings (15)default
$3,800 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $4,700
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default
$3,900 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $8,500
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$7,100 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $5,200
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,300 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $4,700
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal)listing
$3,900 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $19,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $12,100
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$8,100 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation
- $11,700
Landscaping (typical)default
$7,800 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation
- $2,300
Patiosdefault
$1,500 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation
- $2,300
Decks & porches (attached)default
$1,500 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation
- $9,000
Fencinglisting
$6,000 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation
- $198,000
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$164,700 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $20,500
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$17,100 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $19,900
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$16,600 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $20,600
HVACdefault
$17,100 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $7,100
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$5,900 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
- $3,200
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $72,100 | $37,400 | $900 | $110,300 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $240,800 | $240,800 |
| Total | $72,100 | $37,400 | $269,300 | $378,700 |
The building's share of the price ($359,000) is 3.0x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($120,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.