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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

10142 Rocking Horse Ln

10142 Rocking Horse Ln

Redding, CA 96003

$495,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,512 sqft · Listed 13d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1977

Sqft

1,512

Lot sqft

215,186

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-16T19:00:21.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$26,963

ADR

$144

Occupancy

51%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$3,766

Confidence

Low (36.09), 7 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$10,578$27,057$31,166

  • Serene Homestead Hideaway

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.9 mi

    Revenue $27,057ADR $148Occ ≈ 50%4.7★ (21)

    Airbnb

  • Palo Cedro 22-Acre ViewPoint Lodge

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $30,724ADR $294Occ ≈ 29%5★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Budget Friendly. Clean Updated & a little Quirky

    Guest house · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 1.7 mi

    Revenue $10,357ADR $80Occ ≈ 35%4.8★ (24)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 8-Acre Retreat: Pool & Stunning Mt Lassen View!

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.8 mi

    Revenue $49,185ADR $298Occ ≈ 45%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Winery Getaway - stay at Shasta's Oldest Vineyard

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 2.0 mi

    Revenue $31,607ADR $267Occ ≈ 32%5★ (18)

    Airbnb

  • Ballpark

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 2.0 mi

    Revenue $7,107ADR $197Occ ≈ 10%—

    Airbnb

  • Palo Cedro Country Family Home on Creek

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 2.1 mi

    Revenue $10,799ADR $221Occ ≈ 13%—

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$26,963

NOI

$6,873

Cash flow /mo

-$2,095

Cash needed

$163,050

Cash-on-cash

-15.4%

ROE (yr 1)

-4.3%

Cap rate

1.4%

DSCR

0.21

Year-1 write-off

$110,966

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$35,509

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$25,136
  • Principal paydown$3,239
  • Appreciation at%$14,850
ROE-4.3%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)17.5%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,393
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$809
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,348
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,188
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,896

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$123,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$19,800
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$35,509

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$369,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$91,000 · 25%

Year-1 deduction

$111,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$36,000

Land 25% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $278,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,512 sq ft, built 1977, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace, flooring types, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $84,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $27,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$79,200

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,100 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $10,800

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,500 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $8,800

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $3,100

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $400

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $1,400

  • Window coverings (15)default

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $4,400

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (67% of floors)listing

    $6,500 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $7,700

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $8,400

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,300 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $5,100

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $9,600

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$30,800

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,100 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $14,900

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $11,500

  • Patiosdefault

    $1,500 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $2,200

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,500 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $2,200
Building, 39-year$278,400

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $163,700 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $193,900

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $17,000 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $20,100

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $16,400 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $19,500

  • HVACdefault

    $17,000 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $20,200

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $3,200 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $3,800

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $3,100

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $17,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$79,200$30,800$900$111,000
2$0$0$7,100$7,100
3$0$0$7,100$7,100
4$0$0$7,100$7,100
5$0$0$7,100$7,100
6+$0$0$249,000$249,000
Total$79,200$30,800$278,400$388,500

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.