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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

643 Villa Grove Ave

643 Villa Grove Ave

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$399,900

2 bd · 2 ba · 956 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1957

Sqft

956

Lot sqft

7,200

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-29T16:44:58.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$27,655

ADR

$219

Occupancy

35%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,541

Confidence

Low (41.94), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$14,517$24,754$36,367
  • Dogs stay free | 6-ft fenced yard, off leash

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 125 ft

    Revenue $11,805ADR $223Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • The White Haus

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 213 ft

    Revenue $11,861ADR $225Occ ≈ 14%5★ (31)

    Airbnb

  • Lunar Crest

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 233 ft

    Revenue $28,551ADR $203Occ ≈ 39%4.8★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Close to Skiing-Updated & Spotless-Airbnb Favorite

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 325 ft

    Revenue $20,886ADR $200Occ ≈ 29%5★ (118)

    Airbnb

  • Right At Home: Covered Deck! Yard! Cute & Cozy!

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 338 ft

    Revenue $14,393ADR $195Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (35)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stunning Views of Bear Mountain Ski Slopes/Summit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $55,248ADR $208Occ ≈ 73%4.8★ (251)

    Airbnb

  • Hygge Frosk Breathtaking Summer Views, SPA & Deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $37,053ADR $242Occ ≈ 42%4.9★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Villa | BBQ | Spa | Wood Fireplace

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $36,271ADR $249Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (44)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Snow Haven Cabin - Moonridge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,961ADR $249Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (96)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Treehouse #2570

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $57,942ADR $413Occ ≈ 38%4.5★ (1)

    Booking

Show all 50 comps
  • Moonridge Treehouse - Relaxing Lofty Big Bear Hillside Retreat- Great Deck Views- Central

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $75,866ADR $438Occ ≈ 47%—

    Booking

  • Panoramic Views + Hot Tub in Moonridge

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $30,579ADR $259Occ ≈ 32%4.5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Treehouse - Relaxing Lofty Big Bear Hill

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $52,892ADR $386Occ ≈ 38%4.5★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • La Osita A-Frame

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $54,355ADR $451Occ ≈ 33%—

    Booking

  • Lux Mod A-Frame w Stunning Floor to Ceiling Views!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $28,149ADR $405Occ ≈ 19%5★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • King Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $20,006ADR $210Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (82)

    Airbnb

  • AC, Spa, bbq, great views, close to slopes & shops

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $20,138ADR $378Occ ≈ 15%4.9★ (114)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bi-level Vintage Chalet-Style Cabin w/Slope Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $7,008ADR $382Occ ≈ 5%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Your Quiet Cabin/1 Queen/2 Full/1 Bathroom/Loft

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $45,245ADR $199Occ ≈ 62%4.8★ (267)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Rustic A-Frame Cabin with Spa, Near Golf Course!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $52,789ADR $207Occ ≈ 70%4.9★ (830)

    Airbnb

  • Close to Bear Mtn, Golf & Zoo! Foosball!Fireplace!

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,890ADR $257Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonstone Chalet

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,514ADR $312Occ ≈ 31%4.6★ (12)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sky Ridge Retreat: Amazing Ski Slope Views!

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,726ADR $230Occ ≈ 29%4.8★ (72)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5-Star! Ski Run Resort Views! Close to Lake/Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,243ADR $364Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Whiskey Ridge · Dwell Featured A-Frame Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,007ADR $382Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (256)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Quiet Mountain Treehouse w/ Luxury Touch with AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,662ADR $358Occ ≈ 32%5★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luna Lodge Ski Slope with Outdoor dining\Hot tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,679ADR $243Occ ≈ 9%5★ (24)

    AirbnbBooking

  • A Peace of Heaven near slopes w/large deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,363ADR $223Occ ≈ 40%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lux A-Frame Slope Views, AC, Game Room & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,979ADR $441Occ ≈ 25%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Clouds Rest Cabin: Near Hiking Trails! Foosball!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,125ADR $216Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (63)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine & Peak, Mountain Views and Stargazing

    Cabin · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,222ADR $334Occ ≈ 9%5★ (35)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mystical Forest A-Frame w/Vintage Vibes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,369ADR $314Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (86)

    Airbnb

  • 5 STAR Happy Bear Cabin. Close to town/ski resort

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,523ADR $198Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (446)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Moonridge cabin close to Ski resorts.

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $9,308ADR $298Occ ≈ 9%5★ (40)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Torii Alpine Home! Big Bear Lake - Hot tub & Yard!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $42,464ADR $338Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (153)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet friendly Luna Lodge.

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,359ADR $247Occ ≈ 40%5★ (129)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Moonridge Cabin w/ HOT TUB blks to ski/golf/zoo

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,545ADR $282Occ ≈ 11%4.7★ (64)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Cabin with Panoramic Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,781ADR $287Occ ≈ 24%4.5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 072 - Gourmet Getaway

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,434ADR $342Occ ≈ 24%3.3★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Peaceful Sunshine Chalet w/ Hottub-Serene Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $31,568ADR $227Occ ≈ 38%4.2★ (42)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 072 - Gourmet Getaway

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,698ADR $327Occ ≈ 11%—

    VrboBooking

  • Pet-friendly home with wraparound deck, mountain views, hot tub, near slopes!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $8,608ADR $357Occ ≈ 7%—

    Vrbo

  • Cheerful 2- bedroom 1 bath Cabin. Ready to Relax

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,979ADR $189Occ ≈ 12%4.6★ (82)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Hideaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $23,281ADR $210Occ ≈ 30%4.9★ (305)

    Airbnb

  • Sheephorn Getaway-jacuzzi+firepit+mins to slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $56,412ADR $231Occ ≈ 67%4.9★ (193)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • "Colusa Pines" Vacation Cabin in Big Bear Lake, CA

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,783ADR $249Occ ≈ 14%4.9★ (137)

    Airbnb

  • Stylish Cabin Hideaway•EVCharger•Igloo Lounge•Spa

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $32,068ADR $250Occ ≈ 35%4.9★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Cabin near Zoo and Bear Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $16,973ADR $196Occ ≈ 24%4.9★ (10)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Cabin Retreat*View*Deck*BBQ*Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $15,685ADR $195Occ ≈ 22%4.7★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Altitude Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,417ADR $248Occ ≈ 19%4.9★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$27,655

NOI

$9,273

Cash flow /mo

-$1,382

Cash needed

$115,971

Cash-on-cash

-14.3%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.7%

Cap rate

2.3%

DSCR

0.36

Year-1 write-off

$102,821

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$32,903

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$16,586
  • Principal paydown$2,617
  • Appreciation at%$11,997
ROE-1.7%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,531
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$830
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,383
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,999
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,039

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$99,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$15,996
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$32,903

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$321,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$102,000 · 32%

Year-1 deduction

$103,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$33,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $219,000 over 39 years

Based on: 956 sq ft, built 1957, 2 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $56,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $18,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$55,600
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $7,900 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $12,100
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,500 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $9,900
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,700 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $2,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $500
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $1,400
  • Window coverings (10)default

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $3,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,100 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $9,400
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,700 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $5,700
  • Appliances (range, microwave)listing

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $3,800
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$46,500
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $6,400 new × 50% good × 3.83 allocation

    $12,300
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,200 new × 50% good × 3.83 allocation

    $11,800
  • Patiosdefault

    $900 new × 50% good × 3.83 allocation

    $1,800
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $10,800 new × 50% good × 3.83 allocation

    $20,600
Building, 39-year$219,100
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $103,300 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $158,300
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $10,700 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $16,400
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $9,400 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $14,400
  • HVACdefault

    $10,800 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $16,500
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $6,200 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $9,400
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.83 allocation

    $4,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$55,600$46,500$700$102,800
2$0$0$5,600$5,600
3$0$0$5,600$5,600
4$0$0$5,600$5,600
5$0$0$5,600$5,600
6+$0$0$195,900$195,900
Total$55,600$46,500$219,100$321,200

The building's share of the price ($315,000) is 3.8x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($82,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.