1000 Willow Ln
Big Bear City, CA 92314
$475,000
3 bd · 2 ba · 1,850 sqft · Listed 29d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1985
Sqft
1,850
Lot sqft
15,390
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-08-31T00:04:02.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$21,072
ADR
$233
Occupancy
25%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$4,001
Confidence
Low (42.25), 26 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Home w/ SPA, Fire Pit, Yard near Ski Resort & Lake
Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 479 ft
Revenue $30,105ADR $252Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (108)
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub!
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $23,433ADR $342Occ ≈ 19%5★ (45)
Whistling Birds ~ EV Charge
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $28,323ADR $236Occ ≈ 33%5★ (38)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
'The Bear's Den' Cabin: 8 Mi to Snow Summit! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $20,669 | $336 | 17% | 4.2★ (55) | 259 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
Home w/ SPA, Fire Pit, Yard near Ski Resort & Lake Cabin | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $30,105 | $252 | 33% | 4.9★ (108) | 479 ft | Airbnb |
Peaceful, 3 BD Modern Cabin & Game Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $10,578 | $264 | 11% | 4.9★ (20) | 495 ft | AirbnbBooking |
Gorgeous Newly Remodeled Cabin Minutes from slopes House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,251 | $240 | 16% | 5★ (35) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $23,433 | $342 | 19% | 5★ (45) | 0.1 mi | Airbnb |
Spruce Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $16,467 | $325 | 14% | — | 0.2 mi | Booking |
3BR Starlight Stargaze Haus - EV & Fireplace Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $14,772 | $246 | 16% | 4.9★ (13) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lincoln Log Cabin | Renovated | Near Attractions House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $13,764 | $366 | 10% | 4.5★ (8) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Whistling Birds ~ EV Charge House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $28,323 | $236 | 33% | 5★ (38) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Cozy Cabin on Sixth - FREE EV Charging! Cabin | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 | $446 | $223 | 1% | 4.9★ (41) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Show all 26 comps
Mama Bear's Manor - Luxury Spa - No Cleaning Fee
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $32,049ADR $509Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (55)
3rd Night FREE Blue Snowflake Big Bear Mtn. Resort
Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $3,876ADR $343Occ ≈ 3%5★ (1)
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $8,559ADR $295Occ ≈ 8%—
Entire Home • 4 Beds • 3 Bedroom Big Bear
House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $19,757ADR $327Occ ≈ 17%5★ (135)
Hershey Bear Cabin:NEW! Igloo,Hot Tub,Dog Friendly
Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $38,403ADR $409Occ ≈ 26%4.9★ (47)
Beary Peaceful Fam Retreat; Ping Pong, SPA & AC
Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $43,436ADR $295Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (75)
Beary Peaceful
Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $40,091ADR $249Occ ≈ 44%—
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Big Bear Getaway! Chalet | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $28,638 | $185 | 42% | 4.7★ (222) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Mama Bear's Manor - Luxury Spa - No Cleaning Fee Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $32,049 | $509 | 17% | 4.9★ (55) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
3rd Night FREE Blue Snowflake Big Bear Mtn. Resort Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $3,876 | $343 | 3% | 5★ (1) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
Cedar Creek House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,454 | $229 | 17% | 4.6★ (62) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $8,559 | $295 | 8% | — | 0.3 mi | Booking |
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $11,855 | $312 | 10% | 4.5★ (6) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
A Frame Escape ! Fully fenced! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $20,640 | $134 | 42% | 4.5★ (165) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Beach to Mountains Chalet Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $11,981 | $212 | 15% | 5★ (14) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Bluebird Haven Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $10,517 | $272 | 11% | 5★ (19) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Entire Home • 4 Beds • 3 Bedroom Big Bear House | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 | $19,757 | $327 | 17% | 5★ (135) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Hershey Bear Cabin:NEW! Igloo,Hot Tub,Dog Friendly Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $38,403 | $409 | 26% | 4.9★ (47) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
STAR WARS family cabin+HOT TUB+EV outlet+GAME R00M Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $41,852 | $321 | 36% | 5★ (228) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Beary Peaceful Fam Retreat; Ping Pong, SPA & AC Cabin | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $43,436 | $295 | 40% | 4.8★ (75) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Beary Peaceful Vacation home | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $40,091 | $249 | 44% | — | 0.5 mi | Booking |
Summer retreat-Hot Tub, Arcade, Play Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $41,395 | $302 | 38% | 4.8★ (87) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Warm, modern, rustic cabin, Dog friendly. Bravo. House | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $16,157 | $293 | 15% | 5★ (63) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$21,072
NOI
$3,324
Cash flow /mo
-$2,283
Cash needed
$157,250
Cash-on-cash
-17.4%
ROE (yr 1)
-6.4%
Cap rate
0.7%
DSCR
0.11
Year-1 write-off
$106,417
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$34,053
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$27,391
- Principal paydown$3,108
- Appreciation at%$14,250
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$4,214
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$632
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,054
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$5,938
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,423
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$118,750
- Closing costs (4.0%)$19,000
- Furnishing (bought new)$19,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$34,053
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$380,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$85,000 · 22%
Year-1 deduction
$106,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$34,000
Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $295,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000
Based on: 1,850 sq ft, built 1985, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $80,000 in year 1 (15% short-life, $25,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $10,600
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$9,900 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $8,700
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$8,100 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $3,500
Decorative trimdefault
$3,200 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $300
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $1,300
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $5,100
Window coverings (19)default
$4,800 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $5,100
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default
$4,800 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $8,300
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$7,700 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $5,000
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,600 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $8,700
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $19,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $12,000
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$8,900 new × 50% good × 2.70 allocation
- $11,600
Landscaping (typical)default
$8,600 new × 50% good × 2.70 allocation
- $2,500
Patiosdefault
$1,800 new × 50% good × 2.70 allocation
- $2,500
Decks & porches (attached)default
$1,800 new × 50% good × 2.70 allocation
- $216,700
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$200,600 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $22,500
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$20,800 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $22,400
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$20,700 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $22,500
HVACdefault
$20,800 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $7,700
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$7,100 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
- $2,800
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 2.70 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $76,300 | $28,600 | $1,600 | $106,400 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $7,600 | $7,600 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $7,600 | $7,600 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $7,600 | $7,600 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $7,600 | $7,600 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $262,900 | $262,900 |
| Total | $76,300 | $28,600 | $294,700 | $399,500 |
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.