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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

39368 Moab Ln

39368 Moab Ln

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$399,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1960

Sqft

1,056

Lot sqft

5,000

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-29T16:44:58.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$19,860

ADR

$170

Occupancy

32%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$4,320

Confidence

Low (46.48), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$10,562$20,661$26,292
  • Big Family Fireplace Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 266 ft

    Revenue $17,673ADR $280Occ ≈ 17%3.8★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Lark Lookout: Serene Surroundings on Huge Private Lot! Hot Tub & Walk to Lake!

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 374 ft

    Revenue $16,481ADR $415Occ ≈ 11%—

    Booking

  • Serene Spa Lookout on Huge Lot, & Walk to Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 374 ft

    Revenue $10,679ADR $244Occ ≈ 12%5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Rustic Cabin with Gorgeous Stone Fireplace in the Heart of Big Bear, California

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 384 ft

    Revenue $1,084ADR $271Occ ≈ 1%—

    Vrbo

  • Pet Friendly Cabin with Shared Outdoor Pool near Big Bear Lake, Perfect for a Summer Glamping Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 387 ft

    Revenue $3,510ADR $270Occ ≈ 4%—

    Vrbo

  • Two Bedroom Cabin in Big Bear with a Wood Burning Fireplace for a Glamping Retreat at the Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 400 ft

    Revenue $945ADR $236Occ ≈ 1%—

    Vrbo

  • Cozy mountain haven with spa, game room, close to all Big Bear Lake attractions!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 446 ft

    Revenue $2,760ADR $230Occ ≈ 3%—

    Vrbo

  • Two bed room family cabin with no fireplace.

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $24,881ADR $417Occ ≈ 16%4★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Wildernest / Charming A-Frame Cabin by Boulder Bay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $35,991ADR $189Occ ≈ 52%5★ (38)

    Airbnb

  • Family Fireplace Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $19,193ADR $198Occ ≈ 27%3.5★ (6)

    Airbnb

Show all 48 comps
  • Entire upstairs of nice condo

    Townhouse · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,462ADR $130Occ ≈ 26%5★ (283)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Lake, Hot Tub, Fenced Yard, Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $4,197ADR $269Occ ≈ 4%4.4★ (16)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Get cozy in this rustic cottage near Boulder Bay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,908ADR $215Occ ≈ 43%4.9★ (81)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Cabin Close to Lake, Trails & Village!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,086ADR $0Occ ≈ —3.5★ (35)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Little Brown Bear - Close to Slopes, Hot Tub, Fireplace, Deck

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,431ADR $417Occ ≈ 11%4.7★ (11)

    Vrbo

  • Condo in Boulder Bay, 3 miles to village, Lakeview

    Townhouse · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $4,150ADR $227Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (42)

    Airbnb

  • Two bedroom rustic cabin #10

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,120ADR $87Occ ≈ 82%4.5★ (122)

    Airbnb

  • Lakeside Gem: Walk to Park w/ Hot Tub & Fireplace

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,607ADR $264Occ ≈ 13%3.9★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Cozy Cottage Condo - Jacuzzi/3mi to slopes

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,212ADR $246Occ ≈ 26%4.9★ (215)

    Airbnb

  • Lakefront Complex + Heated Pool + Walk to Lake

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,209ADR $304Occ ≈ 9%4.6★ (23)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 2bd2bth LakeView Cabin with HotTub in private yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,528ADR $212Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (150)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Magical Boulder Bay Cottage Near Lake & Trails

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,433ADR $227Occ ≈ 45%4.5★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bearadise condo/free EV charge/lake beach/pool/spa

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $29,452ADR $128Occ ≈ 63%5★ (42)

    Airbnb

  • Blue Jay Lakeside Condo*Pool & Spa*Walk to Lake*

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $9,730ADR $272Occ ≈ 10%4★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakeside Haven: Walk to Park w/ Pool & Hot Tub

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $8,211ADR $159Occ ≈ 14%4.4★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Steps to Boulder Bay & 4.3 miles to Snow Summit

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,916ADR $227Occ ≈ 24%5★ (27)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakeside Lumberjack Lodge - Condo *Pool/Jacuzzi*

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,300ADR $165Occ ≈ 45%4.9★ (229)

    Airbnb

  • Next to Lake. Close to Village and Slopes. BBQ.

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $22,852ADR $214Occ ≈ 29%4.8★ (233)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Relaxing Cabin w/ Peek-a-Boo Lake View

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $24,171ADR $300Occ ≈ 22%4.2★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Retro Mountain Condo w/ Lake Views & Pool

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $36,022ADR $167Occ ≈ 59%4.5★ (4)

    AirbnbBooking

  • The best memories are made here.

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $22,634ADR $245Occ ≈ 25%4.9★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Condo W/ Pool, Hot Tub & Pet Friendly

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $20,793ADR $237Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (51)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Casita Condo | Jacuzzi | 3mi to slopes

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $32,378ADR $216Occ ≈ 41%5★ (198)

    Airbnb

  • Boulder Bay Condo w/ Heated Pool & Views

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $20,056ADR $278Occ ≈ 20%4.2★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakeside Condo 2B/2B - Jacuzzi, 3mi to slopes

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $21,593ADR $221Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (387)

    Airbnb

  • 2 Bedroom Cndo Big Bear Lake Boulder Bay 2ba 大雄湖月租

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,933ADR $61Occ ≈ 63%4.8★ (99)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Farmhouse Condo steps from Lake | Jacuzzi

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,537ADR $203Occ ≈ 37%4.9★ (374)

    Airbnb

  • Blue Jay Getaway #2082 by Big Bear Vacations

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $9,922ADR $553Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Lakeside Escape Condo - 2BR/2BA/Walk to Lake

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $21,867ADR $283Occ ≈ 21%4★ (1)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Steps to Lake. Close to Village and Spa. Pool/Spa

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $26,682ADR $192Occ ≈ 38%4.8★ (339)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Timber Pines Chalet Retreat Cottage w/ Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,220ADR $331Occ ≈ 23%4.5★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain Charm! Condo Steps from Boulder Bay

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,978ADR $221Occ ≈ 4%3.7★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Boulder Bay Fun Retreat, Steps to the Lake & SPA

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,303ADR $178Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (133)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mary's Lake Cabin: Near Lake and Boulder Bay Park!

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $28,769ADR $236Occ ≈ 33%4.3★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Blissful Bay Cabin

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $23,214ADR $257Occ ≈ 25%5★ (2)

    Booking

  • 2BR Blissful Lake View Cabin - Block 2 Boulder Bay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $20,973ADR $231Occ ≈ 25%5★ (30)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Boulder Bay Mountain View Getaway, Large Deck & AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $26,162ADR $192Occ ≈ 37%5★ (83)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Cabin w/ Large Fenced Yard & Fire Pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $17,862ADR $227Occ ≈ 22%4.7★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$19,860

NOI

$3,675

Cash flow /mo

-$1,844

Cash needed

$115,710

Cash-on-cash

-19.1%

ROE (yr 1)

-6.5%

Cap rate

0.9%

DSCR

0.14

Year-1 write-off

$104,745

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$33,519

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$22,126
  • Principal paydown$2,611
  • Appreciation at%$11,970
ROE-6.5%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$3,972
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$596
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$993
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,988
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,035

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$99,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$15,960
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$33,519

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$321,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$104,000 · 32%

Year-1 deduction

$105,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$34,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $217,000 over 39 years

Based on: 1,056 sq ft, built 1960, 2 bd / 1.5 ba, furnished, listing features (fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $78,000 in year 1 (24% short-life, $25,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$65,900
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $11,600
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,600 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $9,500
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $2,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $200
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $1,300
  • Window coverings (11)default

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $3,900
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $6,800 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $9,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,300 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $9,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $5,500
  • Appliances (range, microwave)listing

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $3,600
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
  • Game-room equipment (used)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $2,400
15-year land improvements$38,200
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $6,700 new × 50% good × 3.58 allocation

    $12,100
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,500 new × 50% good × 3.58 allocation

    $11,600
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,000 new × 50% good × 3.58 allocation

    $1,900
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,000 new × 50% good × 3.58 allocation

    $1,900
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.58 allocation

    $10,700
Building, 39-year$216,900
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $114,300 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $163,900
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $11,800 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $16,900
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $10,700 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $15,300
  • HVACdefault

    $11,900 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $17,100
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.58 allocation

    $3,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$65,900$38,200$700$104,700
2$0$0$5,600$5,600
3$0$0$5,600$5,600
4$0$0$5,600$5,600
5$0$0$5,600$5,600
6+$0$0$194,000$194,000
Total$65,900$38,200$216,900$321,000

The building's share of the price ($312,000) is 3.6x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($87,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.