38598 Talbot Dr
Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
$475,000
2 bd · 1 ba · Listed 2d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1960
Sqft
—
Lot sqft
8,300
HOA / mo
None
Furnished
Yes
List date
2026-10-31T19:33:02.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$32,434
ADR
$261
Occupancy
34%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$5,296
Confidence
Low (35.82), 47 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Median revenue of shown comps: $24,456
1940's Original Lakeside Vintage Cabin ON the Lake
Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 292 ft
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- Kitchen
- +2
Revenue $57,075ADR $173Occ ≈ 90%5★ (385)
Round Rock Lodge at Big Bear | Boulder Bay Modern Retreat w/ Pool Table | Minutes to Activities
Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 449 ft
Revenue $45,008ADR $623Occ ≈ 20%—
*Cove Lakeview*Boulder Bay Chalet*Views*Hiking*
Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $62,501ADR $535Occ ≈ 32%4.4★ (53)
Cove lakeview cabin #2064
Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $32,058ADR $346Occ ≈ 25%—
Castle Rock Cabin #178
Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $70,664ADR $763Occ ≈ 25%—
Castle Rock Cabin #1 ~ Comfortable cabin with modern amenities and deck - near hiking and lake
Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $62,273ADR $771Occ ≈ 22%4.5★ (1)
Cozy Cabin by Boulder Bay
Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $7,509ADR $176Occ ≈ 12%4.6★ (5)
Delisted
Boulder Bay Nest
House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- Kitchen
- +2
Revenue $2,719ADR $170Occ ≈ 4%4★ (4)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heavenly Bay Retreat | Hot Tub, Lake View & Games! Cabin
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $479 | $239 | 1% | 5★ (1) | 157 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
1940's Original Lakeside Vintage Cabin ON the Lake Cabin
| 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 | $57,075 | $173 | 90% | 5★ (385) | 292 ft | Airbnb |
Round Rock Lodge at Big Bear | Boulder Bay Modern Retreat w/ Pool Table | Minutes to Activities Vacation home | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $45,008 | $623 | 20% | — | 449 ft | Booking |
*Cove Lakeview*Boulder Bay Chalet*Views*Hiking* Cabin | 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $62,501 | $535 | 32% | 4.4★ (53) | 0.1 mi | Airbnb |
Cove lakeview cabin #2064 Vacation home | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 | $32,058 | $346 | 25% | — | 0.1 mi | Booking |
Castle Rock Cabin #178 Vacation home | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 | $70,664 | $763 | 25% | — | 0.1 mi | Booking |
Castle Rock Cabin #1 ~ Comfortable cabin with modern amenities and deck - near hiking and lake Vacation home | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $62,273 | $771 | 22% | 4.5★ (1) | 0.1 mi | Booking |
Castle Rock Cabin #1 | Walk to Trail + Lake Cabin
| 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 | $19,979 | $494 | 11% | 3.8★ (8) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Cozy Cabin by Boulder Bay Cabin | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $7,509 | $176 | 12% | 4.6★ (5) | 0.1 mi | Delisted |
Boulder Bay Nest House
| 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 | $2,719 | $170 | 4% | 4★ (4) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Show 37 more
Home in big bear Lake just top floor
House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $6,738ADR $243Occ ≈ 8%4.5★ (2)
Delisted
Fall is here! Family time with Lake, Kayaking, BBQ
Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $873ADR $291Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (9)
Three Bear Cabin
Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- Kitchen
- +3
Revenue $39,159ADR $219Occ ≈ 49%5★ (122)
Bayview Cottage-Studio McGee inspired near lake
House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi
- Hot tub
- A/C
- Free parking
- Wifi
- +4
Revenue $46,694ADR $289Occ ≈ 44%5★ (76)
Blissful Bay Cabin
Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $26,613ADR $257Occ ≈ 28%5★ (2)
Boulder Bay Getaway
Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $39,784ADR $234Occ ≈ 47%4★ (1)
Lakeside Escape Condo - 2BR/2BA/Walk to Lake
Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $24,787ADR $277Occ ≈ 25%4★ (1)
Modern Farmhouse Condo steps from Lake | Jacuzzi
Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
- Pool
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- +4
Revenue $28,029ADR $202Occ ≈ 38%4.9★ (377)
Blue Jay Getaway Lakeside Boulder Bay Townhouse
Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $11,621ADR $553Occ ≈ 6%—
Lakeside Condo 2B/2B - Jacuzzi, 3mi to slopes
Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
- Hot tub
- Pool
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- +5
Revenue $22,034ADR $221Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (388)
Casita Condo | Jacuzzi | 3mi to slopes
Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
- Hot tub
- Pool
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- +5
Revenue $33,067ADR $214Occ ≈ 42%5★ (202)
Retro Mountain Condo w/ Lake Views & Pool
Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $34,161ADR $165Occ ≈ 57%4.5★ (4)
Delisted
Lakeside Lumberjack Lodge - Condo *Pool/Jacuzzi*
Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
- Hot tub
- Pool
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- +5
Revenue $27,052ADR $168Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (233)
Bearadise condo/free EV charge/lake beach/pool/spa
Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $30,545ADR $184Occ ≈ 45%5★ (42)
Delisted
The Cozy Cottage Condo - Jacuzzi/3mi to slopes
Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
- Hot tub
- Pool
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- +5
Revenue $24,204ADR $243Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (216)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home in big bear Lake just top floor House | 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $6,738 | $243 | 8% | 4.5★ (2) | 0.2 mi | Delisted |
Fall is here! Family time with Lake, Kayaking, BBQ Cabin | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 | $873 | $291 | 1% | 4.8★ (9) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Close to Lake! Game Room! Hot Tub! Lake Views! House
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $60,178 | $353 | 47% | 4.8★ (144) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Relaxing Cabin Steps from Lake & Trails Cabin
| 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 | $24,036 | $214 | 31% | 4.2★ (14) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Three Bear Cabin Cabin
| 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 | $39,159 | $219 | 49% | 5★ (122) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Lake View+Game Room! Fire Pit! Walk to Boulder Bay Cabin
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $21,624 | $415 | 14% | 5★ (8) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Bayview Cottage-Studio McGee inspired near lake House
| 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $46,694 | $289 | 44% | 5★ (76) | 0.6 mi | Airbnb |
Boulder Bay Fun Retreat, Steps to the Lake & SPA Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $27,634 | $178 | 43% | 4.9★ (135) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Walk to Boulder Bay | Cozy Fireplace Condo Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $3,534 | $228 | 4% | 3.7★ (6) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Blissful Bay Cabin Vacation home | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $26,613 | $257 | 28% | 5★ (2) | 0.6 mi | Booking |
2BR Blissful Lake View Cabin - Block 2 Boulder Bay Cabin
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $24,456 | $230 | 29% | 5★ (32) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Kayakers Paradise Boulder Bay Condo -Steps to Lake Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $36,946 | $199 | 51% | 5★ (3) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Boulder Bay Getaway Vacation home | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 | $39,784 | $234 | 47% | 4★ (1) | 0.7 mi | Booking |
Family Condo by the Lake · Pool & Spa · Sleeps 5 Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 | $26,789 | $189 | 39% | 4.8★ (343) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Fenced Yard + Fire Pit | Pet-Friendly Cabin
| 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $18,884 | $224 | 23% | 4.7★ (26) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakeside Escape Condo - 2BR/2BA/Walk to Lake Condominium (condo) | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $24,787 | $277 | 25% | 4★ (1) | 0.7 mi | Booking |
Little Boulder Lakehouse Cabin
| 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 | $52,540 | $226 | 64% | 5★ (266) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 Modern Farmhouse Condo steps from Lake | Jacuzzi Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $28,029 | $202 | 38% | 4.9★ (377) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Blue Jay Getaway Lakeside Boulder Bay Townhouse Apartment | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $11,621 | $553 | 6% | — | 0.7 mi | Booking |
Boulder Bay Mountain View Getaway, Large Deck & AC Cabin
| 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 | $28,484 | $191 | 41% | 5★ (85) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakeside Condo 2B/2B - Jacuzzi, 3mi to slopes Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $22,034 | $221 | 27% | 4.9★ (388) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Lake View Condo | Pool + Walk to Boulder Bay Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $16,933 | $259 | 18% | 4.2★ (8) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Casita Condo | Jacuzzi | 3mi to slopes Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $33,067 | $214 | 42% | 5★ (202) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Charming Condo W/ Pool, Hot Tub & Pet Friendly Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $20,671 | $242 | 23% | 4.8★ (51) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
2 Bedroom Cndo Big Bear Lake Boulder Bay 2ba 大雄湖月租 Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 | $12,619 | $62 | 56% | 4.8★ (99) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Steps to Boulder Bay | Pool, Hot Tub + 2 Suites Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $24,471 | $233 | 29% | 4.9★ (53) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Retro Mountain Condo w/ Lake Views & Pool Condominium (condo) | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $34,161 | $165 | 57% | 4.5★ (4) | 0.7 mi | Delisted |
Lakeside Haven: Walk to Park w/ Pool & Hot Tub Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $9,364 | $155 | 17% | 4.5★ (23) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Blue Jay Lakeside Condo*Pool & Spa*Walk to Lake* Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $10,842 | $264 | 11% | 4★ (24) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Steps to Boulder Bay & 4.3 miles to Snow Summit Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $23,057 | $206 | 31% | 5★ (29) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Walk to Lake · Pool & Spa · 2BR/2BA · Arcade Game Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 | $22,937 | $218 | 29% | 4.8★ (237) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakeside Lumberjack Lodge - Condo *Pool/Jacuzzi* Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $27,052 | $168 | 44% | 4.9★ (233) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Bearadise condo/free EV charge/lake beach/pool/spa Apartment | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $30,545 | $184 | 45% | 5★ (42) | 0.7 mi | Delisted |
Fenced Yard + Foosball + Walk to Lake Cabin
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 | $16,221 | $310 | 14% | 4★ (43) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakefront Complex + Heated Pool + Walk to Lake Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $9,289 | $290 | 9% | 4.7★ (24) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakeside Gem: Walk to Park w/ Hot Tub & Fireplace Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $13,679 | $227 | 17% | 3.9★ (41) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
The Cozy Cottage Condo - Jacuzzi/3mi to slopes Condominium (condo)
| 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $24,204 | $243 | 27% | 4.9★ (216) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$32,434
NOI
$11,505
Cash flow /mo
-$1,653
Cash needed
$137,750
Cash-on-cash
-14.4%
ROE (yr 1)
-1.9%
Cap rate
2.4%
DSCR
0.37
Year-1 write-off
$115,594
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$36,990
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$19,834
- Principal paydown$2,982
- Appreciation at%$14,250
Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$6,487
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$973
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,622
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$6,694
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,423
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$118,750
- Closing costs (4.0%)$19,000
- Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$36,990
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$381,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$115,000 · 30%
Year-1 deduction
$116,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$37,000
Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $266,000 over 39 years
Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1960, 2 bd / 1 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).
Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $63,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $20,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $11,400
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$8,900 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $11,600
Kitchen countertops (stone)listing
$9,100 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $3,100
Decorative trimdefault
$2,500 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $200
Mirrorsdefault
$200 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $1,200
Shelvingdefault
$900 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $4,500
Window coverings (14)default
$3,500 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $2,900
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (25% of floors)listing
$2,300 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $8,800
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$6,900 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $5,300
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,200 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $8,200
Appliances (range, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing
$6,400 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $6,400
Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing
$16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price
- $12,400
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing
$7,800 new × 50% good × 3.20 allocation
- $11,900
Landscaping (typical)default
$7,500 new × 50% good × 3.20 allocation
- $2,200
Patiosdefault
$1,400 new × 50% good × 3.20 allocation
- $25,200
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$15,800 new × 50% good × 3.20 allocation
- $194,400
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$151,900 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $20,100
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$15,700 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $19,200
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$15,000 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $20,200
HVACdefault
$15,800 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $8,600
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$6,800 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
- $3,400
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 3.20 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $63,600 | $51,800 | $300 | $115,600 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $6,800 | $6,800 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $6,800 | $6,800 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $6,800 | $6,800 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $6,800 | $6,800 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $238,400 | $238,400 |
| Total | $63,600 | $51,800 | $266,000 | $381,300 |
The building's share of the price ($375,000) is 3.2x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($117,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.