651 Cienega Rd
Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
$750,000
3 bd · 2 ba · 1,214 sqft · Listed 8d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1977
Sqft
1,214
Lot sqft
10,585
HOA / mo
None
Furnished
No
List date
2026-11-04T22:13:15.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$27,656
ADR
$254
Occupancy
30%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$5,519
Confidence
Low (33.72), 49 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Median revenue of shown comps: $22,941
Lakeside Condo with Pool, Hot Tub and Lake View!
Townhouse · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 345 ft
- Hot tub
- Pool
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- +4
Revenue $22,941ADR $253Occ ≈ 25%4.8★ (136)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peacefull Pines 2, Marina front home House
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $16,276 | $311 | 14% | 4.8★ (44) | 102 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
Walk to the Lake! Pet Friendly! Pool and Hot Tub! House
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $29,593 | $244 | 33% | 4.6★ (35) | 184 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
Walk to Lake | Fenced Yard + Fireplace Cabin
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $14,106 | $376 | 10% | 5★ (6) | 194 ft | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakeside Condo with Pool, Hot Tub and Lake View! Townhouse
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $22,941 | $253 | 25% | 4.8★ (136) | 345 ft | Airbnb |
Retro Big Bear Retreat w/ Seasonal Pool Access Condominium (condo)
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $12,283 | $326 | 10% | 4.4★ (20) | 436 ft | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Amazing 3BR/2BA Lakefront Condo! Close to Village! House
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $24,501 | $301 | 22% | 4.8★ (32) | 466 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
Boulder Bay | Pool + Tennis | Walk to Lake Condominium (condo)
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $12,905 | $278 | 13% | 4.3★ (31) | 495 ft | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Lakefront/Hot Tub/Fireplace/Great Location Condominium (condo)
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $38,719 | $387 | 27% | 4.9★ (87) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Beary Relaxing Stay. Walk to Lake. Close to Slopes Cabin
| 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $30,143 | $344 | 24% | 4.9★ (41) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Spectacular hideaway. Smart TV, BBQ, Fireplace Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $42,373 | $355 | 33% | 4.4★ (30) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Show 33 more
Pet-friendly lakefront condo with fireplace, community pool, hot tub + more!
Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $694ADR $347Occ ≈ 1%3.4★ (5)
Delisted
Newly Renovated Cabin! | 6 Beds | Fenced Backyard
Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $47,354ADR $214Occ ≈ 61%4.8★ (93)
Grinning Bear
Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $14,350ADR $377Occ ≈ 10%4.4★ (30)
Woodland Escape
Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- Kitchen
- +2
Revenue $25,670ADR $210Occ ≈ 33%2★ (1)
Bayshore - Spacious condo within walking distance to all Big Bear has to offer!
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $34,670ADR $356Occ ≈ 27%—
Home away from home
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $12,421ADR $186Occ ≈ 18%4.7★ (198)
Delisted
Rooster's Den ~ Charming house with expansive deck, cable, internet, near Big Bear Lake
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $51,304ADR $430Occ ≈ 33%1★ (1)
Rooster's Den #710
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $67,638ADR $680Occ ≈ 27%0.5★ (1)
Boulder Bear Lakeside Condo- Big Bear Modern Retreat
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $4,281ADR $270Occ ≈ 4%—
Pool, jacuzzi, marina, on the lake! Close to town!
Townhouse · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi
- Hot tub
- Pool
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- +5
Revenue $25,880ADR $216Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (132)
Restmoore Big Bear | Boulder Bay Condo | Pool, Spa, Ski Shuttle, Remote Office
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $18,417ADR $494Occ ≈ 10%—
Walk to Lake + Vintage Charm + Modern comforts
Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- Washer
- +1
Revenue $5,696ADR $179Occ ≈ 9%5★ (1)
Spa ~ Arcade Machine ~ Spacious Yard ~ Glass House
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi
- Hot tub
- Free parking
- Wifi
- Kitchen
- +4
Revenue $64,690ADR $261Occ ≈ 68%5★ (61)
The Shadows: Charming Chalet Near Boulder Bay w/AC
House · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- Kitchen
- +3
Revenue $40,295ADR $288Occ ≈ 38%5★ (84)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
*Relaxing Boulder Bay* Lakeside Townhouse Retreat* Condominium (condo) | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $47,086 | $474 | 27% | 4.3★ (14) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Pet-friendly lakefront condo with fireplace, community pool, hot tub + more! Condominium (condo) | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $694 | $347 | 1% | 3.4★ (5) | 0.1 mi | Delisted |
Big Bear Modern Cozy TownHome w/pools w/hot tubs House
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $1,965 | $245 | 2% | 4.8★ (32) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Big Bear G5 Getaway 3+2 Condo in Boulder Bay w/SPA Townhouse
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $7,456 | $314 | 7% | 3.4★ (7) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Newly Renovated Cabin! | 6 Beds | Fenced Backyard Cabin | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 | $47,354 | $214 | 61% | 4.8★ (93) | 0.1 mi | Booking |
ClosetoSkiing, Lake&Village! Community Pool/Spa! House
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $35,217 | $240 | 40% | 5★ (42) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Grinning Bear Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,350 | $377 | 10% | 4.4★ (30) | 0.1 mi | Airbnb |
Woodland Escape Cabin
| 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $25,670 | $210 | 33% | 2★ (1) | 0.1 mi | Airbnb |
Bayshore - Spacious condo within walking distance to all Big Bear has to offer! Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $34,670 | $356 | 27% | — | 0.1 mi | Booking |
Cienega Getaway Lakeside Townhouse at Big Bear Condominium (condo) | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $57,051 | $610 | 26% | 4.5★ (19) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Home away from home House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $12,421 | $186 | 18% | 4.7★ (198) | 0.2 mi | Delisted |
Rooster's Den Big Bear~ Central Family Chalet Cabin
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $32,220 | $613 | 14% | 4.5★ (2) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Cozy 3BR Knotty Pine, Near Lake & Trails, Deck Apartment
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $13,328 | $209 | 17% | 5★ (10) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Rooster's Den ~ Charming house with expansive deck, cable, internet, near Big Bear Lake Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $51,304 | $430 | 33% | 1★ (1) | 0.2 mi | Booking |
Rooster's Den #710 Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $67,638 | $680 | 27% | 0.5★ (1) | 0.2 mi | Booking |
Boulder Bear Lakeside Condo- Woodland Retreat Apartment | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $52,363 | $927 | 15% | 3.2★ (4) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Boulder Bear Lakeside Condo- Big Bear Modern Retreat Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $4,281 | $270 | 4% | — | 0.2 mi | Booking |
Cozy Lakefront Retreat, Views & Fireplace Apartment
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $34,449 | $231 | 41% | 5★ (34) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Boulder Bay Beauty! Cabin
| 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $16,621 | $218 | 21% | 4.9★ (8) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront House With AC, Private Dock, Game Loft. Cabin
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $68,580 | $548 | 34% | 5★ (36) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
3 bdrm Condo close to Marina & Village! House
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $31,076 | $271 | 31% | 4.8★ (34) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Grey Squirrel Resort - Rustic Hideaway Cabin
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $490 | $245 | 1% | — | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Pool, jacuzzi, marina, on the lake! Close to town! Townhouse
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $25,880 | $216 | 33% | 4.8★ (132) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Restmoore Big Bear | Boulder Bay Condo | Pool, Spa, Ski Shuttle, Remote Office Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $18,417 | $494 | 10% | — | 0.2 mi | Booking |
Pet-friendly lakefront condo with fireplace balcon Condominium (condo) | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $21,996 | $273 | 22% | 4.2★ (16) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Relaxing Restmoore Townhouse at Big Bear Lake Condominium (condo)
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $22,419 | $289 | 21% | 4.5★ (6) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Kayaks Game room Nintendo! BigBear Family Getaway! Cabin
| 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $15,414 | $215 | 20% | 4.8★ (20) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Walk to Lake & Marina,Spa/Pool Table Sleeps 10 BBL House
| 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $17,960 | $642 | 8% | 4.9★ (8) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Walk to Lake + Vintage Charm + Modern comforts Cabin
| 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $5,696 | $179 | 9% | 5★ (1) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Spa ~ Arcade Machine ~ Spacious Yard ~ Glass House Cabin
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $64,690 | $261 | 68% | 5★ (61) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Pines Haven- Close to Marinas and Shopping Condominium (condo)
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $12,698 | $486 | 7% | 4.5★ (41) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront Condo: Pools, Hot Tubs & Walk to Marina Apartment
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $4,779 | $225 | 6% | 4★ (2) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
The Shadows: Charming Chalet Near Boulder Bay w/AC House
| 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $40,295 | $288 | 38% | 5★ (84) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.93% = 7.18% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 5) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$27,656
NOI
$3,637
Cash flow /mo
-$3,797
Cash needed
$237,000
Cash-on-cash
-19.2%
ROE (yr 1)
-7.7%
Cap rate
0.5%
DSCR
0.07
Year-1 write-off
$192,485
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$61,595
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$45,563
- Principal paydown$4,765
- Appreciation at%$22,500
Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$5,531
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$830
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,383
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$9,375
- Insurance (STR-rated)$3,825
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$187,500
- Closing costs (4.0%)$30,000
- Furnishing (bought new)$19,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$61,595
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$600,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$173,000 · 29%
Year-1 deduction
$192,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$62,000
Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $427,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000
Based on: 1,214 sq ft, built 1977, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fence, fireplace, appliance list).
Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $143,000 in year 1 (21% short-life, $46,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $20,300
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$8,500 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $16,600
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$6,900 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $5,100
Decorative trimdefault
$2,100 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $700
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $2,900
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $7,200
Window coverings (12)default
$3,000 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $7,500
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default
$3,100 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $15,800
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$6,600 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $9,500
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,000 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $19,400
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing
$8,100 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $19,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $21,600
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing
$7,200 new × 50% good × 5.99 allocation
- $20,800
Landscaping (typical)default
$6,900 new × 50% good × 5.99 allocation
- $3,600
Patiosdefault
$1,200 new × 50% good × 5.99 allocation
- $3,600
Decks & porches (attached)default
$1,200 new × 50% good × 5.99 allocation
- $18,000
Fencinglisting
$6,000 new × 50% good × 5.99 allocation
- $314,200
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$131,100 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $32,600
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$13,600 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $30,300
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$12,700 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $32,800
HVACdefault
$13,700 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $11,200
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$4,700 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
- $6,300
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 5.99 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $124,400 | $67,600 | $500 | $192,500 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $11,000 | $11,000 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $11,000 | $11,000 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $11,000 | $11,000 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $11,000 | $11,000 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $383,200 | $383,200 |
| Total | $124,400 | $67,600 | $427,500 | $619,500 |
The building's share of the price ($600,000) is 6.0x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($100,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.