STR Yield
← Back to deals

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

43308 Bow Canyon Rd

43308 Bow Canyon Rd

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$599,900

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,574 sqft · Listed 9d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1998

Sqft

1,574

Lot sqft

8,100

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-20T06:00:35.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$32,717

ADR

$228

Occupancy

39%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,605

Confidence

Low (40.01), 46 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,803$24,828$33,727
  • Bear View Lodge: Panoramic Mtn Views! Pool Table!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 72 ft

    Revenue $67,262ADR $0Occ ≈ —5★ (40)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game/Arcade Table, Near the Slopes

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 102 ft

    Revenue $24,006ADR $178Occ ≈ 37%4.3★ (12)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Scandinavian Mountain Cabin- 2 min from Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 148 ft

    Revenue $27,529ADR $399Occ ≈ 19%4.9★ (116)

    Airbnb

  • Bear View Lodge

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 148 ft

    Revenue $45,208ADR $481Occ ≈ 26%5★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Bear Cabin. BBQ, Walk to Bear Mtn, location

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 164 ft

    Revenue $3,822ADR $477Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fireplace & BBQ + Game Table + Close to Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 463 ft

    Revenue $20,681ADR $305Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Perfect location Cabin w/Hot tub & Game room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 476 ft

    Revenue $13,701ADR $460Occ ≈ 8%4.5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Canyon Beautiful Views With Spa

    Villa · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 486 ft

    Revenue $4,127ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.5★ (32)

    Booking

  • Bear Canyon: Large Cabin, Beautiful Views & HotTub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 486 ft

    Revenue $23,430ADR $393Occ ≈ 16%4.4★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Canyon Getaway | Hot Tub & Game Loft

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 486 ft

    Revenue $8,709ADR $301Occ ≈ 8%4.5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 47 comps
  • Big Bear Mtn Cabin | <1mi Ski Resort | Game Loft

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 495 ft

    Revenue $45,715ADR $409Occ ≈ 31%5★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Outdoor Spa Cabin! Walk to ski lifts, golf and zoo

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $13,215ADR $240Occ ≈ 15%4.6★ (284)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Ozone Spa Cabin- Pets are Free! Enclosed deck, Flat parking 2026-0155

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $20,699ADR $237Occ ≈ 24%4.6★ (147)

    Vrbo

  • Deer Canyon Cabin w/ spa, BBQ, near Bear Mountain

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,882ADR $490Occ ≈ 8%4.2★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fully Fenced Yard! Pool Table! Log Cabin!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $51,745ADR $288Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (136)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bearfoot Den, Walk to Bear Mountain, Fireplaces,

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,476ADR $299Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (27)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • A Big Bear View

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $24,828ADR $321Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (34)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Mountain Escape | Hot Tub | EV Charging

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $9,408ADR $347Occ ≈ 7%5★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Dancing Bear Cabin: 5 mins to ski, zoo, hike, lake

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $22,964ADR $299Occ ≈ 21%5★ (84)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Lake w/ Hot Tub! Dog Friendly!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,978ADR $300Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (71)

    Airbnb

  • A-Frame + Hot Tub + Deck Dining • Ski + Trails

    House · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,320ADR $220Occ ≈ 2%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Getaway! Hot Tub, Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,183ADR $384Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (120)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Serene Cabin w/ Hot Tub < 1 Mi to Bear Mountain!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,513ADR $273Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (128)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Ski w/Hot tub, mins to village

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,119ADR $346Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (97)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Outstanding Cabin with Game Room and Impressive Outdoor Area in Big Bear Lake, California

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,752ADR $478Occ ≈ 6%—

    Vrbo

  • Big Bear Chalet | Hot Tub • Fire Pit • Mtn Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $62,229ADR $286Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (120)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • White Pines| Golf Course Views, BBQ & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,997ADR $190Occ ≈ 59%4.4★ (13)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Stargazer Chalet - VIEWS from the top of Moonridge

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,616ADR $310Occ ≈ 32%5★ (76)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3BR Chalet with Forest Views, Fireplace, Deck, BBQ

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,806ADR $234Occ ≈ 33%4.3★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub Retreat Near Bear Mountain

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,497ADR $357Occ ≈ 20%4.5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Fun! Walk to Skiing & Golf

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,732ADR $342Occ ≈ 16%5★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Game Room, Pool Table, Deck, Barbecue, Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,164ADR $507Occ ≈ 20%4.4★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Mountain Views Chalet at Big Bear- Foosball

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,854ADR $399Occ ≈ 12%3.8★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Slopes • Cozy Cabin • Fireplace + Private

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,953ADR $244Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin w/ Fireplace, Deck & Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $4,500ADR $279Occ ≈ 4%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Après Slopes Heaven - Spectacular multi-level home overlooking Bear Mountain Ski Slopes!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,798ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    Booking

  • Close to Bear Mtn & Forest! Hot Tub! Gametable!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,290ADR $288Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (65)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bluebird Family Ridge Near Zoo, Game Room & BBQ

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $52,237ADR $323Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (51)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 1 Mi to Skiing: Mtn-View Cabin in Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $54,388ADR $267Occ ≈ 56%4.8★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 3bedroom 2.5 bath Close to Bear Mtn

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,322ADR $241Occ ≈ 20%4.5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Slopes N Greens

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $49,698ADR $574Occ ≈ 24%5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Renovated w/ Hot Tub, Walk to Zoo & Golf, Firepit

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $18,569ADR $237Occ ≈ 21%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Ollie's Cabin:Mtn Views!Spa!Foosball!Fully Fenced!

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,353ADR $337Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (24)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private and spacious w/ wrap around deck mtn views

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,073ADR $325Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (30)

    Airbnb

  • Smart TV, BBQ, Deck, Walk to Slopes

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,532ADR $317Occ ≈ 13%4.7★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 034 - Menlo Suite - Big Bear Getaway

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,856ADR $270Occ ≈ 30%3.4★ (4)

    Booking

  • Steps 2 Slopes 3 Bd 2 Bath Cuzzi & Pool Table

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,379ADR $392Occ ≈ 18%5★ (17)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$32,717

NOI

$9,698

Cash flow /mo

-$2,424

Cash needed

$173,971

Cash-on-cash

-16.7%

ROE (yr 1)

-4.1%

Cap rate

1.6%

DSCR

0.25

Year-1 write-off

$133,953

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$42,865

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$29,094
  • Principal paydown$3,926
  • Appreciation at%$17,997
ROE-4.1%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)20.5%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,543
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$982
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,636
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,499
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,059

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$149,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$23,996
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$42,865

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$493,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$133,000 · 27%

Year-1 deduction

$134,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$43,000

Land 18% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $360,000 over 39 years

Based on: 1,574 sq ft, built 1998, 3 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $80,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $26,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$74,400
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,300 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $11,500
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,600 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $9,400
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $3,400
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $1,500
  • Window coverings (16)default

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $5,000
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $10,100 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $12,600
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,200 new × 44% good × 3.12 allocation

    $9,900
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,400 new × 44% good × 3.12 allocation

    $6,000
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, washer, dryer)listing

    $5,500 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $6,900
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $19,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $7,800
15-year land improvements$58,400
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,300 new × 50% good × 3.12 allocation

    $16,000
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,900 new × 50% good × 3.12 allocation

    $12,300
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,600 new × 50% good × 3.12 allocation

    $2,400
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $17,700 new × 50% good × 3.12 allocation

    $27,600
Building, 39-year$360,100
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $170,500 new × 53% good × 3.12 allocation

    $283,500
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $17,700 new × 44% good × 3.12 allocation

    $24,300
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $17,200 new × 44% good × 3.12 allocation

    $23,600
  • HVACdefault

    $17,700 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $22,100
  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 3.12 allocation

    $6,600

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$74,400$58,400$1,200$134,000
2$0$0$9,200$9,200
3$0$0$9,200$9,200
4$0$0$9,200$9,200
5$0$0$9,200$9,200
6+$0$0$322,000$322,000
Total$74,400$58,400$360,100$492,900

The building's share of the price ($485,000) is 3.1x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($156,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.