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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

855 Conklin Rd

855 Conklin Rd

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$850,000

4 bd · 3 ba · 2,087 sqft · Listed 25d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2016

Sqft

2,087

Lot sqft

7,457

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-04T20:24:15.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$62,441

ADR

$570

Occupancy

30%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,233

Confidence

Low (31.6), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$21,717$48,011$72,082
  • Alpine chalet #1840

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 46 ft

    Revenue $140,100ADR $925Occ ≈ 41%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Experience Relaxing Alpine Chalet at Big Bear

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 56 ft

    Revenue $32,304ADR $349Occ ≈ 25%4.5★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Forest Angel: Close to Snow Summit & Village!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 · 213 ft

    Revenue $45,139ADR $748Occ ≈ 17%5★ (175)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • PetFriendly!Backs up to National Forest!Fireplace!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 14 · 259 ft

    Revenue $51,380ADR $500Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (19)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cabin Feel w/ Modern Amenities Central to Ski+Lake

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 413 ft

    Revenue $19,959ADR $442Occ ≈ 12%4.8★ (42)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game Room • Central Location • Three-Level Mountain Retreat

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 436 ft

    Revenue $122,457ADR $2,450Occ ≈ 14%—

    Booking

  • Hot Tub-Game Room-Walk to Village + Ski Resort-

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 443 ft

    Revenue $21,577ADR $604Occ ≈ 10%4★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Teddy by AvantStay | Cabin 5mins to Marina/Village

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 456 ft

    Revenue $98,188ADR $468Occ ≈ 57%4.9★ (154)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 5-STARS! Game Room, fire pit, Walk to Forest - OSO

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 492 ft

    Revenue $44,314ADR $839Occ ≈ 14%5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bearfoot Bungalow - Premium and spacious home close to the National Forest and The Village!

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $59,797ADR $1,387Occ ≈ 12%5★ (1)

    Booking

Show all 50 comps
  • Honeycomb Outdoor Hideaway - Hot Tub, Sauna & Yard

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $60,741ADR $595Occ ≈ 28%5★ (25)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Bear Cabin

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $9,952ADR $829Occ ≈ 3%4.9★ (110)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Swiss Delight by Big Bear Vacations Hot Tub Game Tables Central

    Chalet · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $128,736ADR $1,534Occ ≈ 23%—

    Booking

  • Swiss Delight Family Retreat w/ Spa + Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $70,570ADR $764Occ ≈ 25%4.4★ (23)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Relaxing Four Bears Cabin in Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $60,853ADR $1,088Occ ≈ 15%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Chalet-Style Family Retreat Near Village

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,216ADR $482Occ ≈ 16%5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Three pines #2372

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $1,360ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    Booking

  • Summit Ridge • Sauna, Spa & Sports Court • Private

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $73,603ADR $591Occ ≈ 34%5★ (25)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine Summit | Hot Tub+Sauna | BBQ | Arcade + Games

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $81,763ADR $509Occ ≈ 44%4.8★ (110)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • *Three Pines* Ski/Bike/Hike* Hot Tub* Games*Views*

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $53,429ADR $0Occ ≈ —3.9★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Splash Mountain Big Bear~Summertime Pool~Spa~Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $57,864ADR $893Occ ≈ 18%4.5★ (22)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Splash Mountain - 1904 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $89,501ADR $1,282Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • Splash Mountain Retreat Big Bear- Hot Tub- Games-

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $45,481ADR $771Occ ≈ 16%4★ (2)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Near Village & Snow Summit! Dog Friendly! Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $48,415ADR $610Occ ≈ 22%4.7★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Centrally located Spacious 5 Bedroom Vintage Home

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $31,257ADR $408Occ ≈ 21%4.6★ (13)

    Airbnb

  • Bristlecone Lodge by Destination Big Bear : Beautiful Treed Setting Next to Snow Summit! Fenced Yard!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $18,187ADR $201Occ ≈ 25%4.2★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Steps 2 Summit or Walk to Slopes, Pool Table

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,038ADR $291Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 4 Bedrooms Large Game Room - short walk to Snow Summit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $10,587ADR $936Occ ≈ 3%5★ (64)

    Vrbo

  • 4BD/Spa/Game Room/Fenced/Fire Pit/Outdoor Living

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $26,299ADR $1,340Occ ≈ 5%4.5★ (79)

    Airbnb

  • Steps-2-Summit Cabin - Walk to Snow Summit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $10,512ADR $876Occ ≈ 3%5★ (82)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain Hideaway on Maryland Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $22,136ADR $646Occ ≈ 9%4.2★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain Hideaway on Maryland by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $50,618ADR $936Occ ≈ 15%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Large Snowman House + Ski + Village + Lake 4 FUN!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $25,211ADR $498Occ ≈ 14%5★ (57)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Village Timber Lodge at Big Bear - Downtown Log Cabin Retreat

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $62,421ADR $661Occ ≈ 26%—

    Booking

  • Hawks View:2Free Lift Tickets

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $80,945ADR $559Occ ≈ 40%3.8★ (34)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lessthan100YardsfromSnowSummit!Decks!Fireplace!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $35,937ADR $357Occ ≈ 28%4.5★ (176)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Near Snow Summit/4BR/Spa/Pets/Fenced/Firepit/Games

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $72,586ADR $399Occ ≈ 50%5★ (84)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Summit- Cozy Central Resort Chalet- Minutes to Activities

    Chalet · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $17,494ADR $689Occ ≈ 7%1.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Mancave. Steps to Summit Resort. Spa and BBQ.

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $80,424ADR $482Occ ≈ 46%4.9★ (540)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Treetop Bearadise: Gym, Sauna, Spa, Games, FirePit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $292ADR $292Occ ≈ 0%—

    Airbnb

  • 4th House from Snow Summit! Walk to the Ski Lifts

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $74,941ADR $468Occ ≈ 44%5★ (62)

    Airbnb

  • Relax at Cozy Summit- Blocks to Ski Lifts

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $17,305ADR $802Occ ≈ 6%4.4★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Summit House. Walk to Snow Summit. BBQ. Spa. AC

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $47,607ADR $652Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (22)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Switzerland Lodge - Base of Snow Summit, Hot Tub

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $73,932ADR $757Occ ≈ 27%5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Summit Hideaway ~ Fantastic Mountain getaway with

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $21,423ADR $832Occ ≈ 7%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Summit Hideaway ~ Fantastic Mountain getaway with private hot tub, free Wi-Fi, full kitchen, & more

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $43,325ADR $746Occ ≈ 16%—

    Booking

  • Walk to Ski Lifts- Hot Tub- Games- Pets- Blue Bear

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $62,047ADR $458Occ ≈ 37%4.6★ (45)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Blue Bear Resort Chalet w/ Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $65,548ADR $774Occ ≈ 23%4.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Summit Haven: Game Room | Sauna | Spa | 1/4 Acre

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $17,956ADR $632Occ ≈ 8%5★ (15)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Summit Haven - Spa - Sauna - Gameroom - 1/4 acre backyard fenced-in

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $139,720ADR $914Occ ≈ 42%5★ (8)

    Vrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$62,441

NOI

$27,073

Cash flow /mo

-$2,324

Cash needed

$269,500

Cash-on-cash

-10.3%

ROE (yr 1)

1.2%

Cap rate

3.2%

DSCR

0.49

Year-1 write-off

$161,779

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$51,769

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$27,892
  • Principal paydown$5,562
  • Appreciation at%$25,500
ROE1.2%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)20.4%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$12,488
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,873
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$3,122
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$10,625
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$4,335

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$212,500
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$34,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$51,769

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$715,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$137,000 · 19%

Year-1 deduction

$162,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$52,000

Land 16% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $578,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 2,087 sq ft, built 2016, 4 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, stone counters).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $97,000 in year 1 (10% short-life, $31,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$102,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,400 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $14,700
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $10,600 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $15,100
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,700 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $5,200
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 2.37 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $2,100
  • Window coverings (21)default

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 2.37 allocation

    $5,000
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $5,400 new × 40% good × 2.37 allocation

    $5,100
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,100 new × 80% good × 2.37 allocation

    $15,300
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,900 new × 80% good × 2.37 allocation

    $9,200
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.37 allocation

    $7,700
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$57,100
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,500 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $13,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,100 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $12,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,100 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $2,900
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $23,500 new × 50% good × 2.37 allocation

    $27,800
Building, 39-year$578,500
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $226,100 new × 83% good × 2.37 allocation

    $446,000
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $23,500 new × 80% good × 2.37 allocation

    $44,500
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $23,700 new × 80% good × 2.37 allocation

    $44,900
  • HVACdefault

    $23,500 new × 50% good × 2.37 allocation

    $27,800
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $8,100 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $11,400
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 60% good × 2.37 allocation

    $3,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$102,800$57,100$1,900$161,800
2$0$0$14,800$14,800
3$0$0$14,800$14,800
4$0$0$14,800$14,800
5$0$0$14,800$14,800
6+$0$0$517,300$517,300
Total$102,800$57,100$578,500$738,400

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.