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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1412 E Big Bear Blvd

1412 E Big Bear Blvd

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$619,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,517 sqft · Listed 5d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1994

Sqft

1,517

Lot sqft

5,719

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-24T18:16:13.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$28,611

ADR

$256

Occupancy

31%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,117

Confidence

Low (36.63), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$13,797$23,150$34,600
  • Sweet Cabin Gateway | Cozy Big Bear Retreat Minutes From Adventure

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 443 ft

    Revenue $20,932ADR $427Occ ≈ 13%—

    Booking

  • Sweet Cabin Home Gateway #2576

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 443 ft

    Revenue $21,687ADR $442Occ ≈ 13%—

    Booking

  • Private Hot Tub • Game Room • Mountain Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 469 ft

    Revenue $54,961ADR $280Occ ≈ 54%5★ (174)

    Airbnb

  • Family friendly cozy cabin in Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $25,832ADR $327Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (5)

    Vrbo

  • Cozy Mountain Cabin w/ Hot Tub, Fireplace & Deck

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $5,036ADR $296Occ ≈ 5%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • 🍁 MalaBear Lodge in the🌲 🌲15 min to 🏔 Private Spa

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $40,027ADR $346Occ ≈ 32%4.9★ (182)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Meadow -Create your Big Bear Memories

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $17,104ADR $468Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (45)

    Airbnb

  • Vintage Hollywood Hideaway: Spa, Sauna, Speakeasy

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $71,379ADR $339Occ ≈ 58%4.9★ (285)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Lazy Bear Inn- Family Friendly Game Room & Spa

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,150ADR $332Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (50)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • HOME SWEET HOME sleeps 7- Enjoy the Forest

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,687ADR $198Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (83)

    Airbnb

Show all 49 comps
  • Top 1% Home! StunningViews, GameRoom, AC, FirePit

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $67,790ADR $269Occ ≈ 69%5★ (190)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet-friendly cabin with Mountain Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,987ADR $173Occ ≈ 49%5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Bears Lair Perfect for family w-full Amenities

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,276ADR $267Occ ≈ 26%4.5★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Malabar Mountain Cabin Tucked in Forest Pine View.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,255ADR $148Occ ≈ 45%4.7★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 3 bedroom with fireplace + deck - Emerald Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,496ADR $168Occ ≈ 12%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Gold Rush Retreat, Sleeps 10, Mountain Views

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $34,600ADR $251Occ ≈ 38%4.9★ (77)

    Airbnb

  • Play Big Bear #2580

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,048ADR $431Occ ≈ 8%—

    Booking

  • *Play Big Bear* Fun-Packed BB City Family Retreat*

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,539ADR $274Occ ≈ 16%5★ (3)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Play Big Bear - Relaxing Bear City Family Retreat-

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,403ADR $361Occ ≈ 22%3★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stylish Family Cabin w/ Pac-Man & Stone Fireplace!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,028ADR $250Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (25)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Paw Lodge *Cozy home w/ fireplace & game room

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,293ADR $253Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (43)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Cabin: Your Big Bear Retreat with jaccuzi

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,714ADR $388Occ ≈ 15%4.7★ (14)

    Airbnb

  • Relaxing Bruin Chalet at Big Bear City- Minutes to Activities

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,836ADR $478Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (4)

    Booking

  • Cozy BearPaw Cave Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,204ADR $314Occ ≈ 15%5★ (48)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • First Chair Lair

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,716ADR $245Occ ≈ 22%5★ (96)

    Airbnb

  • PK Serene 3BR Cabin w/ Hot Tub & Outdoor Projector

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $25,009ADR $380Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (389)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet Friendly Pickleball Paradise and Hot Tub

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $43,302ADR $283Occ ≈ 42%5★ (49)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub! Family! Close to Forest / Slopes/Lake PEA

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,453ADR $551Occ ≈ 4%4.5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Dutch Hideaway-3bed W/Gameroom

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,797ADR $428Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Le’s Serenity Cozy Cabin Hot Tub, Games, A.C.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $32,259ADR $292Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Three 3's Cabin|Gated, AC, dogs ok, Spa, Lrg Yard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $26,723ADR $223Occ ≈ 33%4.7★ (29)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Central AC! Maple Ridge Getaway in Big Bear

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $32,666ADR $340Occ ≈ 26%5★ (124)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Bear Necessities

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 99 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $26,864ADR $165Occ ≈ 45%5★

    Vrbo

  • Big Bear Intrigue

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $25,162ADR $221Occ ≈ 31%5★ (114)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Retreat w/ Hot Tub and fenced backyard!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $19,471ADR $220Occ ≈ 24%5★ (109)

    Airbnb

  • Modern Cabin w/Mtn Views/Pool Table/Jacuzzi for 8

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $41,893ADR $534Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (334)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Papa Joe's Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $12,714ADR $221Occ ≈ 16%4.6★ (110)

    AirbnbBooking

  • ask_4_Early Check-In/Late-Checkout_@ShakaHouse

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $50,048ADR $252Occ ≈ 54%4.9★ (146)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Little Chalet

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $11,199ADR $241Occ ≈ 13%4.8★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Fun Cabin Hot Tub Pet Friendly Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $43,531ADR $900Occ ≈ 13%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear A Frame

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $8,216ADR $270Occ ≈ 8%4.6★ (65)

    Airbnb

  • Moody Lodge • Hot Tub • Darts

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $36,656ADR $314Occ ≈ 32%5★ (202)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Adventure! Cabin w/ Game Room & Yard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $12,502ADR $384Occ ≈ 9%4.7★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet-Friendly Big Bear Cabin ~ 6 Mi to Ski Resorts!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $20,495ADR $327Occ ≈ 17%4.8★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Grandpa’s cabin

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $772ADR $257Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub • Game Room • BBQ • Large Cabin • Dogs OK

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $52,731ADR $309Occ ≈ 47%4.9★ (273)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear-Epic Views, Fire Pits, Hot Tub, Theater!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $59,182ADR $340Occ ≈ 48%5★ (158)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious 3br perfect for big Group with hot tub

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $8,499ADR $406Occ ≈ 6%5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Maple Ridge by Rather Be Properties

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $1,750ADR $230Occ ≈ 2%—

    Booking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$28,611

NOI

$6,434

Cash flow /mo

-$2,799

Cash needed

$199,010

Cash-on-cash

-16.9%

ROE (yr 1)

-5.5%

Cap rate

1.0%

DSCR

0.16

Year-1 write-off

$155,409

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$49,731

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$33,593
  • Principal paydown$4,051
  • Appreciation at%$18,570
ROE-5.5%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)19.5%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,722
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$858
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,431
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,739
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,157

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$154,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$24,760
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$49,731

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$495,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$135,000 · 27%

Year-1 deduction

$155,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$50,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $360,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,517 sq ft, built 1994, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $95,000 in year 1 (15% short-life, $30,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$81,400
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,100 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $13,200
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,500 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $10,800
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,700 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $3,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $1,700
  • Window coverings (15)default

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $5,400
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (50% of floors)listing

    $4,900 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $7,000
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $10,200
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,300 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $6,200
  • Appliances (microwave, dishwasher, disposal)listing

    $2,100 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $3,000
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$72,900
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $8,100 new × 50% good × 3.61 allocation

    $14,600
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 3.61 allocation

    $14,000
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,500 new × 50% good × 3.61 allocation

    $2,700
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $17,100 new × 50% good × 3.61 allocation

    $30,800
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.61 allocation

    $10,800
Building, 39-year$360,400
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $164,300 new × 47% good × 3.61 allocation

    $276,500
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $17,000 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $24,600
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $16,500 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $23,800
  • HVACdefault

    $17,100 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $24,700
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $4,900 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $7,000
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.61 allocation

    $3,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$81,400$72,900$1,200$155,400
2$0$0$9,200$9,200
3$0$0$9,200$9,200
4$0$0$9,200$9,200
5$0$0$9,200$9,200
6+$0$0$322,300$322,300
Total$81,400$72,900$360,400$514,700

The building's share of the price ($495,000) is 3.6x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($137,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.