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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

594 Villa Grove Ave

594 Villa Grove Ave

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$342,000

2 bd · 1 ba · 896 sqft · Listed 14d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1978

Sqft

896

Lot sqft

8,102

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-15T19:57:28Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$31,978

ADR

$215

Occupancy

41%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,326

Confidence

Low (34.87), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$12,179$28,350$42,264
  • Stylish Cabin Hideaway•EVCharger•Igloo Lounge•Spa

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 141 ft

    Revenue $32,068ADR $250Occ ≈ 35%4.9★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Hideaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 164 ft

    Revenue $23,281ADR $210Occ ≈ 30%4.9★ (305)

    Airbnb

  • Moonridge Mountain Retreat with Views and Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 236 ft

    Revenue $44,888ADR $248Occ ≈ 50%4.8★ (285)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Resting Falcon Retreat / Spa, Mountain Views, Near

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 243 ft

    Revenue $2,244ADR $320Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cheerful 2- bedroom 1 bath Cabin. Ready to Relax

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 256 ft

    Revenue $7,979ADR $189Occ ≈ 12%4.6★ (82)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Perch - Forest Views, sleeps 7, Moonridge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 456 ft

    Revenue $13,119ADR $223Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (20)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Moon Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 486 ft

    Revenue $37,482ADR $216Occ ≈ 48%4.7★ (128)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Overlook Retreat- Awesome Views, Pets Welcome!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $28,055ADR $615Occ ≈ 12%4.7★ (131)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The 717 - Upper Moonridge - VERY Close to Resorts!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $43,430ADR $177Occ ≈ 67%5★ (373)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Your Quiet Cabin/1 Queen/2 Full/1 Bathroom/Loft

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $45,245ADR $199Occ ≈ 62%4.8★ (267)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 50 comps
  • Torii Alpine Home! Big Bear Lake - Hot tub & Yard!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $42,464ADR $338Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (153)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Alpine Retreat Cali Bear, near slopes, hot tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $101,044ADR $907Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (20)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Majestic Mountain Oasis

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $37,845ADR $173Occ ≈ 60%3.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Bi-level Vintage Chalet-Style Cabin w/Slope Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $7,008ADR $382Occ ≈ 5%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Pet friendly Luna Lodge.

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,359ADR $247Occ ≈ 40%5★ (129)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Moonridge Villa | BBQ | Spa | Wood Fireplace

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,271ADR $249Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (44)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Kalami Wolf Cabin with Mountain Views, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,019ADR $221Occ ≈ 45%4.5★ (100)

    Airbnb

  • Rustic A-Frame Cabin with Spa, Near Golf Course!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $52,789ADR $207Occ ≈ 70%4.9★ (830)

    Airbnb

  • Moonridge Cabin w/ HOT TUB blks to ski/golf/zoo

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,545ADR $282Occ ≈ 11%4.7★ (64)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Memories | King Suite, HotTub & Gameroom

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $43,683ADR $289Occ ≈ 41%5★ (90)

    Airbnb

  • PANSIZE: Cozy Moonridge Chalet in the Wood

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,846ADR $160Occ ≈ 79%4.9★ (363)

    Airbnb

  • Pets Allowed+Projector+BBQ+A/C | Wolf Moon Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $50,517ADR $421Occ ≈ 33%5★ (162)

    Airbnb

  • Pet Friendly! Modern Mid-Century! AC Unit!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,618ADR $212Occ ≈ 36%4.9★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Serene Pines

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,480ADR $205Occ ≈ 50%4.8★ (3)

    Booking

  • Luna Lodge Ski Slope with Outdoor dining\Hot tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,679ADR $243Occ ≈ 9%5★ (24)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Right At Home: Covered Deck! Yard! Cute & Cozy!

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,393ADR $195Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (35)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge 2BR Cabin | Hot Tub & Forest Views

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $258ADR $129Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Bluebeary Cabin - Weekend Special, Spa, Dogs ok

    Chalet · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,047ADR $245Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (209)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Close to Skiing-Updated & Spotless-Airbnb Favorite

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,886ADR $200Occ ≈ 29%5★ (118)

    Airbnb

  • Mondbärenhaus | fun-cozy-modern-view-architectural

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,865ADR $177Occ ≈ 18%5★ (15)

    Airbnb

  • Snow Haven Cabin - Moonridge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,961ADR $249Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (96)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Moonridge cabin close to Ski resorts.

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $9,308ADR $298Occ ≈ 9%5★ (40)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Woodsy Retreat ★Hot Tub ★A/C ★Near the slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $55,131ADR $206Occ ≈ 73%5★ (401)

    Airbnb

  • King Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,006ADR $210Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (82)

    Airbnb

  • Lunar Crest

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,551ADR $203Occ ≈ 39%4.8★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The White Haus

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,861ADR $225Occ ≈ 14%5★ (31)

    Airbnb

  • Après-Ski Romantic Retreat | Hot Tub | AC | Dogs

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $1,833ADR $183Occ ≈ 3%4.8★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Dogs stay free | 6-ft fenced yard, off leash

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $11,805ADR $223Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • Angel’s Nest: Cozy Private Moonridge Cabin ! WiFi

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,432ADR $247Occ ≈ 15%5★ (158)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lux Mod A-Frame w Stunning Floor to Ceiling Views!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,149ADR $405Occ ≈ 19%5★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • La Osita A-Frame

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $54,355ADR $451Occ ≈ 33%—

    Booking

  • Clouds Rest Cabin: Near Hiking Trails! Foosball!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,125ADR $216Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (63)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hygge Frosk Breathtaking Summer Views, SPA & Deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $37,053ADR $242Occ ≈ 42%4.9★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lux A-Frame Slope Views, AC, Game Room & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,979ADR $441Occ ≈ 25%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5-Star! Ski Run Resort Views! Close to Lake/Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,243ADR $364Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Spectacular Views! * Hot Tub* Upper Moonridge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $30,547ADR $257Occ ≈ 33%5★ (152)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • @Silvertipcabin Fireplace, Hot tub & Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $10,419ADR $339Occ ≈ 8%4.9★ (10)

    Airbnb

  • Quiet Mountain Treehouse w/ Luxury Touch with AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $41,662ADR $358Occ ≈ 32%5★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonlight Ridge - 1929 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $53,822ADR $601Occ ≈ 25%5★ (2)

    Booking

  • Sheephorn Getaway-jacuzzi+firepit+mins to slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $56,412ADR $231Occ ≈ 67%4.9★ (193)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$31,978

NOI

$13,318

Cash flow /mo

-$733

Cash needed

$115,180

Cash-on-cash

-7.6%

ROE (yr 1)

3.2%

Cap rate

3.9%

DSCR

0.60

Year-1 write-off

$96,998

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$31,039

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$8,797
  • Principal paydown$2,238
  • Appreciation at%$10,260
ROE3.2%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)30.2%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,396
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$959
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,599
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,275
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,744

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$85,500
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$13,680
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$31,039

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$236,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$80,000 · 34%

Year-1 deduction

$97,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$31,000

Land 31% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $156,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 896 sq ft, built 1978, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $62,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $20,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$62,300
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $7,800 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $9,200
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,400 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $7,500
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,600 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $1,900
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $200
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $1,100
  • Window coverings (9)default

    $2,300 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $2,700
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $2,300 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $2,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,000 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $7,200
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,700 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $4,300
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $9,600
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$34,200
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $6,200 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $9,200
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $8,800
  • Patiosdefault

    $900 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $1,300
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $10,100 new × 50% good × 2.96 allocation

    $14,900
Building, 39-year$155,900
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $96,900 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $114,600
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $10,000 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $11,900
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $8,600 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $10,200
  • HVACdefault

    $10,100 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $11,900
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $4,100
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.96 allocation

    $3,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$62,300$34,200$500$97,000
2$0$0$4,000$4,000
3$0$0$4,000$4,000
4$0$0$4,000$4,000
5$0$0$4,000$4,000
6+$0$0$139,400$139,400
Total$62,300$34,200$155,900$252,400

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.