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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

764 Panamint Mountain Dr

764 Panamint Mountain Dr

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$472,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,636 sqft · Listed 18d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyNegative cash flow

Year built

1977

Sqft

1,636

Lot sqft

7,701

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-11T16:07:05.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$44,543

ADR

$412

Occupancy

30%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$9,401

Confidence

Med (53.8), 29 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$26,973$42,237$53,756
  • Whispering Bear Lodge: Pool Table!Foosball! Views!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 272 ft

    Revenue $33,419ADR $338Occ ≈ 27%4.7★ (66)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakeside •PlaneSpotting• Sauna• EV• by Octoberfest

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 341 ft

    Revenue $14,207ADR $333Occ ≈ 12%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Cabin in Bearadise

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 417 ft

    Revenue $17,441ADR $445Occ ≈ 11%4.5★ (33)

    Airbnb

  • ✧ GORGEOUS Remodel, Dog/Kid Friendly, Gameroom! ✧

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $93,848ADR $671Occ ≈ 38%5★ (181)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Master Suite! 2 Game Rooms! HOT TUB! Propane BBQ!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $46,704ADR $396Occ ≈ 32%4.5★ (166)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Navigate Stays Best Location Pet Friendly Games

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $64,894ADR $395Occ ≈ 45%4.5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Navigate Stays Best Location Pet Friendly Games

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,813ADR $331Occ ≈ 31%—

    Booking

  • Winter Haus: Near National Forest!Ski Slope Views!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $25,890ADR $467Occ ≈ 15%5★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Winter Cabin!+Pets OK+ Pool Table+4bd/2bths!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $42,237ADR $289Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (14)

    Airbnb

  • ✧ Game Room, Spa, Firepit, Pet/ Child Friendly! ✧

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $51,305ADR $616Occ ≈ 23%4.9★ (120)

    Airbnb

Show all 29 comps
  • Chimney Peak Big Bear Chalet w/ Hot Tub + Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $81,815ADR $627Occ ≈ 36%4.8★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Hunting Cabin with Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $41,918ADR $199Occ ≈ 58%4.9★ (47)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Octagon at Big Bear- Hot Tub + Pool Table

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $65,056ADR $1,946Occ ≈ 9%4.5★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Getaway and play!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $39,446ADR $356Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (102)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub • Spacious Cabin with Rustic Details • BBQ

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $26,973ADR $312Occ ≈ 24%5★ (56)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Upgraded Cabin w/ Locally Inspired Themed Rooms

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $12,360ADR $485Occ ≈ 7%4.4★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonlight Ridge | Solar, Spa, EV Chrg, Lx Game Rm!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $59,014ADR $402Occ ≈ 40%5★ (40)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Juniper Lodge: Spa! Fenced! Pet Friendly! Games!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $46,899ADR $439Occ ≈ 29%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large 4 bedroom cabin with Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $49,529ADR $321Occ ≈ 42%4.8★ (384)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub! Pool Table! PetFriendly!Multi-Fireplaces!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $53,756ADR $440Occ ≈ 33%4.5★ (156)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Families love! Close to Slopes, Lake, Trails & All

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $16,683ADR $472Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (98)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Misty Tree Top Chalet

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $58,624ADR $441Occ ≈ 36%5★ (2)

    Booking

  • Big Bear Cabin | 4BR | Pet-Friendly | Lake & Ski

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $38,804ADR $447Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (147)

    AirbnbBooking

  • 4BR Cabin Near Big Bear Lake, Ski, Hike EV Charger

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $43,691ADR $399Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (47)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Four Seasons 4 BR Cabin, Views, Games & Hot Tub

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $50,682ADR $401Occ ≈ 35%5★ (100)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Grand Bear Chalet

    Chalet · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $14,704ADR $452Occ ≈ 9%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Mountain Retreat | Firepit/BBQ | Games

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $24,842ADR $422Occ ≈ 16%5★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 2500SQF Family & Friends Big Bear Vacation Home!

    Cottage · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $56,425ADR $213Occ ≈ 73%4.5★ (145)

    Airbnb

  • A charming large Group Retreat or family home

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $37,152ADR $740Occ ≈ 14%5★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$44,543

NOI

$20,264

Cash flow /mo

-$857

Cash needed

$160,025

Cash-on-cash

-6.4%

ROE (yr 1)

4.4%

Cap rate

4.3%

DSCR

0.66

Year-1 write-off

$138,197

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,223

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$10,290
  • Principal paydown$3,092
  • Appreciation at%$14,175
ROE4.4%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)32.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$8,909
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,336
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,227
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,450
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,410

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$118,125
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$18,900
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$44,223

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$378,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$114,000 · 30%

Year-1 deduction

$138,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $264,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 1,636 sq ft, built 1977, 4 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $88,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$86,100
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,400 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $10,600
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $8,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $3,200
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $1,700
  • Window coverings (16)default

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $4,500
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $10,500 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $11,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $8,200
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,400 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $5,000
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $9,100
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$51,300
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $8,400 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $11,800
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,100 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $11,300
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,600 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $2,300
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $18,400 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $25,900
Building, 39-year$263,700
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $177,000 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $199,000
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $18,400 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $20,700
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $18,000 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $20,300
  • HVACdefault

    $18,400 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $20,700
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $3,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$86,100$51,300$800$138,200
2$0$0$6,800$6,800
3$0$0$6,800$6,800
4$0$0$6,800$6,800
5$0$0$6,800$6,800
6+$0$0$235,800$235,800
Total$86,100$51,300$263,700$401,000

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.