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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

630 Villa Grove Ave

630 Villa Grove Ave

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$587,500

3 bd · 2 ba · Listed 22d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1978

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

7,200

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-07T17:05:29.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$30,066

ADR

$244

Occupancy

34%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,093

Confidence

Low (35.61), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$14,816$24,883$41,370
  • Minton Grove Cabin + Fireplace & EV Charger!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 144 ft

    Revenue $5,293ADR $112Occ ≈ 13%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Located in a beautiful, desirable area with a deck

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 157 ft

    Revenue $28,337ADR $209Occ ≈ 37%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Chateau Smith - dog-friendly

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 167 ft

    Revenue $15,080ADR $268Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • Villa Grove: Hot Tub & Playground Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 249 ft

    Revenue $56,042ADR $308Occ ≈ 50%4.8★ (156)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Gentle Grizzly Getaway:Views of Bear Mtn!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 269 ft

    Revenue $44,137ADR $324Occ ≈ 37%4.7★ (77)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Rest N Relax Inn - Beautiful chalet-style cabin features dramatic forest and slope views!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 292 ft

    Revenue $40,868ADR $510Occ ≈ 22%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Hot Tub Insane Views 7 beds Snow Ready

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 331 ft

    Revenue $45,376ADR $277Occ ≈ 45%4.8★ (47)

    Airbnb

  • Endless Views. Great for Families. BBQ. AC

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 348 ft

    Revenue $9,123ADR $456Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lone Wolf Lodge - W/ Beautiful Mountain View’s

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 351 ft

    Revenue $1,199ADR $233Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonlight Memories | Jacuzzi, Theatre, Dogs Okay!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 361 ft

    Revenue $36,093ADR $407Occ ≈ 24%4.5★ (25)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 50 comps
  • Foosball + Hot Tub + Near Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 364 ft

    Revenue $18,529ADR $379Occ ≈ 13%4.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge, Views, Pets, Baby Ready

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 374 ft

    Revenue $1,455ADR $485Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (57)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Wolf House-Best Mountain View’s.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 377 ft

    Revenue $17,891ADR $299Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (10)

    Airbnb

  • Pine Cabin + Wraparound Decks • Big Bear, CA

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 394 ft

    Revenue $455ADR $227Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Modern Mountain Cabin | Prime Location | Sleeps 8

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 440 ft

    Revenue $10,462ADR $478Occ ≈ 6%4.9★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Cabin: Spa, Billiards, & Room for Whole Crew!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 459 ft

    Revenue $29,604ADR $324Occ ≈ 25%5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • New! Bearadise ~ Moonridge Serenade

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 459 ft

    Revenue $39,542ADR $2,087Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (62)

    Airbnb

  • Log Style near Bear Mountain Resort

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 492 ft

    Revenue $25,641ADR $241Occ ≈ 29%5★ (163)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury HappyNest Mountain Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 512 ft

    Revenue $24,124ADR $388Occ ≈ 17%5★ (7)

    Airbnb

  • Beautiful Log Style Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 515 ft

    Revenue $5,439ADR $184Occ ≈ 8%4.7★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Moonridge Getaway

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 518 ft

    Revenue $41,537ADR $603Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (20)

    Airbnb

  • "Grizzly Getaway" Beautiful 3b/2b, Spa Pets ok.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $52,479ADR $205Occ ≈ 70%4.7★ (59)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Lazy JT Ranch - Slope views, fenced yard, deck, bbq

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $1,287ADR $643Occ ≈ 1%—

    VrboBooking

  • Serenity Cabin – Big Bear Fall Cabin Rental

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $16,974ADR $272Occ ≈ 17%4.8★ (160)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Nest at Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $16,704ADR $271Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (25)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Guest Favorite • Hot Tub • Near Trails • Sleeps 8

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $27,676ADR $376Occ ≈ 20%5★ (176)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Silver Bear Lodge. Near ski areas and zoo.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $20,417ADR $340Occ ≈ 16%5★ (24)

    Airbnb

  • Cheerful 3-bedroom cabin with pool table and games

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $18,353ADR $274Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (53)

    Airbnb

  • Moonridge Cabin: Views, Hot Tub, EV & No Pet Fee

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $41,910ADR $486Occ ≈ 24%5★ (18)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stunning w/gorgeous views,deck,yard & spa. Dogs ok

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $50,217ADR $345Occ ≈ 40%5★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luna Pines - Spa, A/C Game Rm, Fire Pit & EV Chrg

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $44,070ADR $334Occ ≈ 36%5★ (45)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Mtn View Chalet - Spa & Game Room

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,004ADR $501Occ ≈ 18%5★ (173)

    Airbnb

  • Sleeps 8 · Hot Tub + Game Room · 10 min to Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $42,327ADR $316Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (177)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Majestic Mountain Manor

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,550ADR $469Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3 Mi to Slopes! Big Bear Mtn Getaway w/ Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $35,936ADR $394Occ ≈ 25%3.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • 3 Mi to Slopes! Big Bear Mtn Getaway w/ Hot Tub

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $34,100ADR $389Occ ≈ 24%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private/Views/Hikes/Close to Slopes & Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $17,809ADR $358Occ ≈ 14%4.9★ (86)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Geodesic Dome Home w/ Hot Tub & Yard in Big Bear!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $12,290ADR $366Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The BEST VIEW, Rustic Retreat Hot Tub, Fenced Yard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $21,189ADR $296Occ ≈ 20%5★ (106)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Newly remodeled Cabin w/rusitc Interior

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $5,772ADR $412Occ ≈ 4%4.8★ (54)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Cabin in the heart of Moonridge

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,728ADR $361Occ ≈ 11%5★ (131)

    Airbnb

  • Views of Bear Mtn! HOT TUB! Shuffleboard Table!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,158ADR $456Occ ≈ 9%4.6★ (114)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Minton Heaven Cabin | Spa · Foosball · Deck

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,414ADR $362Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Starlight Sanctuary | Wow Views, AC, Near Slopes!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $64,982ADR $296Occ ≈ 60%4.9★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New! Bearadise~ Relaxing Views Mountain Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,810ADR $994Occ ≈ 13%4.9★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • Peaceful Shady Bear, Hot tub & Spacious deck

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,413ADR $353Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Panoramic View, Hot Tub, Game Room, Family Retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $77,101ADR $281Occ ≈ 75%4.9★ (66)

    Airbnb

  • Mountain Crest Getaway: Pool Table!Fireplace! WiFi

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,604ADR $205Occ ≈ 38%4.7★ (151)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • BEAUTIFUL CABIN WITH HOT TUB AND INCREDIBLE VIEWS

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,723ADR $359Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (269)

    Airbnb

  • View! Colusa View Chalet I Ski Slope Views I Spa

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,803ADR $484Occ ≈ 6%5★ (37)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$30,066

NOI

$7,989

Cash flow /mo

-$2,500

Cash needed

$170,375

Cash-on-cash

-17.6%

ROE (yr 1)

-5.0%

Cap rate

1.4%

DSCR

0.21

Year-1 write-off

$148,480

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$47,514

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$30,001
  • Principal paydown$3,845
  • Appreciation at%$17,625
ROE-5.0%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)22.9%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,013
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$902
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,503
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,662
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,996

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$146,875
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$23,500
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$47,514

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$472,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$147,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$148,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$48,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $324,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,900 sq ft (from beds), built 1978, 3 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, fence, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $89,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$79,700
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,000 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $11,500
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $10,200 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $11,800
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,300 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $3,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $1,400
  • Window coverings (19)default

    $4,800 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $5,500
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing

    $4,100 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $4,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,800 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $8,900
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,700 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $5,400
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, dryer)listing

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $8,200
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $10,400
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $19,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $7,800
15-year land improvements$67,700
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,000 new × 50% good × 2.88 allocation

    $13,000
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,700 new × 50% good × 2.88 allocation

    $12,500
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,900 new × 50% good × 2.88 allocation

    $2,700
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $21,400 new × 50% good × 2.88 allocation

    $30,800
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.88 allocation

    $8,700
Building, 39-year$324,100
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $206,100 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $237,700
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $24,700
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $24,600
  • HVACdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $24,700
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $9,400
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.88 allocation

    $3,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$79,700$67,700$1,000$148,500
2$0$0$8,300$8,300
3$0$0$8,300$8,300
4$0$0$8,300$8,300
5$0$0$8,300$8,300
6+$0$0$289,800$289,800
Total$79,700$67,700$324,100$471,600

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.