38626 N Shore Dr
Fawnskin, CA 92333
$1,100,000
4 bd · 3 ba · 1,962 sqft · Listed 62d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1976
Sqft
1,962
Lot sqft
6,499
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-09-12T01:08:37.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$65,432
ADR
$821
Occupancy
22%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$5,658
Confidence
Low (21), 16 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Median revenue of shown comps: $46,906
169 - Lakefront Deep Water - Big Bear Getaway
Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $54,189ADR $488Occ ≈ 30%—
Scenic and Serene Lake House! 4 bedroom 2 bath home bordering the national fores
House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $1,743ADR $249Occ ≈ 2%5★ (1)
Delisted
Scenic and Serene Lake House! 4 bedroom 2 bath home bordering the national fores
House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $4,463ADR $390Occ ≈ 3%—
Delisted
Firepit BBQ Game Room
House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $40,192ADR $486Occ ≈ 23%4.3★ (7)
Inspiration Point Retreat by Big Bear Vacations
Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $136,845ADR $917Occ ≈ 41%—
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peaceful Lakefront Cabin in Fawnskin with Fire Pit House
| 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 | $4,269 | $739 | 2% | — | 394 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
BB lakefront home w/spectacular views & Generator! House
| 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $53,620 | $591 | 25% | 5★ (95) | 492 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
169 - Lakefront Deep Water - Big Bear Getaway Vacation home | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $54,189 | $488 | 30% | — | 0.2 mi | Booking |
Scenic and Serene Lake House! 4 bedroom 2 bath home bordering the national fores House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $1,743 | $249 | 2% | 5★ (1) | 0.2 mi | Delisted |
Scenic and Serene Lake House! 4 bedroom 2 bath home bordering the national fores House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $4,463 | $390 | 3% | — | 0.2 mi | Delisted |
Firepit BBQ Game Room House | 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $40,192 | $486 | 23% | 4.3★ (7) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
"The Grand" Lakefront Log Home. Private dock. House
| 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $36,376 | $1,135 | 9% | 5★ (162) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Your own Boat Dock, Peekaboo Lake Views, 4 Bedroom House
| 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 | $21,759 | $650 | 9% | 4.8★ (37) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Inspiration Point Retreat- Boat Dock + Game Room Cabin | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $100,332 | $622 | 44% | 4★ (10) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Inspiration Point Retreat by Big Bear Vacations Vacation home | 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $136,845 | $917 | 41% | — | 0.7 mi | Booking |
Show 2 more
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pet Friendly! Hot Tub! Outdoor Oasis! Firepit! House
| 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 | $73,831 | $684 | 30% | 5★ (40) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
 Gorgeous Lake Views. Hot Tub, Dog Enclosed Yard. Cabin
| 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 | $103,279 | $869 | 33% | 4.8★ (169) | 0.8 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$65,432
NOI
$25,201
Cash flow /mo
-$3,873
Cash needed
$342,000
Cash-on-cash
-13.6%
ROE (yr 1)
-1.9%
Cap rate
2.3%
DSCR
0.35
Year-1 write-off
$235,334
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$75,307
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$46,478
- Principal paydown$7,085
- Appreciation at%$33,000
Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$13,086
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,963
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$3,272
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$13,750
- Insurance (STR-rated)$5,610
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$275,000
- Closing costs (4.0%)$44,000
- Furnishing (bought new)$23,000
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$75,307
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$775,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$211,000 · 27%
Year-1 deduction
$235,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$75,000
Land 30% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $564,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000
Based on: 1,962 sq ft, built 1976, 4 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, wooded lot).
Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $135,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $43,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $19,700
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$10,100 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $16,100
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$8,300 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $6,700
Decorative trimdefault
$3,400 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $900
Mirrorsdefault
$500 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $2,900
Shelvingdefault
$1,500 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $9,800
Window coverings (20)default
$5,000 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $9,900
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default
$5,100 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $15,400
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$7,900 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $9,300
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,800 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $15,800
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $23,000
Furniture bought newlisting
$23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $22,400
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$9,200 new × 50% good × 4.88 allocation
- $10,800
Landscaping (minimal)listing
$4,400 new × 50% good × 4.88 allocation
- $4,700
Patiosdefault
$1,900 new × 50% good × 4.88 allocation
- $53,900
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$22,100 new × 50% good × 4.88 allocation
- $12,200
Gazebo / pergolalisting
$5,000 new × 50% good × 4.88 allocation
- $415,000
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$212,400 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $43,100
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$22,100 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $43,300
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$22,100 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $43,200
HVACdefault
$22,100 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $14,800
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$7,600 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
- $5,100
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 4.88 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $129,500 | $104,000 | $1,800 | $235,300 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $14,500 | $14,500 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $14,500 | $14,500 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $14,500 | $14,500 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $14,500 | $14,500 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $504,800 | $504,800 |
| Total | $129,500 | $104,000 | $564,500 | $798,000 |
The building's share of the price ($775,000) is 4.9x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($159,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.