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Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

39525 Red Robin Dr Lot 72

39525 Red Robin Dr Lot 72

Fawnskin, CA 92333

$299,000

2 bd · 1 ba · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1947

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

6,732

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-29T16:20:39.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$36,947

ADR

$231

Occupancy

44%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,997

Confidence

Low (34.02), 34 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$17,197$33,867$50,442

Median revenue of shown comps: $33,026

  • Fawnskin Cabin Retreat Big Yard Firepit & Minutes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $24,237ADR $191Occ ≈ 35%4.6★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain Getaway | Near Big Bear Lake & Hiking

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $18,949ADR $251Occ ≈ 21%4.5★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fisherman's Retreat on Big Bear Lake's North Shore

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $18,734ADR $217Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (153)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lake Cabin w/ Deck ~ 7 Mi to Ski Slopes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • Fireplace

    Revenue $47,401ADR $192Occ ≈ 68%4.9★ (43)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • SKI 5 Miles | Game Loft | MTN Views | BBQ | WIFI

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +2

    Revenue $49,018ADR $208Occ ≈ 65%5★ (368)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Welcome to Malu! Hot Tub + Great Views!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $41,170ADR $167Occ ≈ 68%4.9★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Moose Cottage

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $54,397ADR $229Occ ≈ 65%5★ (137)

    Airbnb

  • Idle Ours Cabin ~ Rustic and Cozy Cabin with Firep

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $19,268ADR $259Occ ≈ 20%4.3★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Idle Ours Cabin ~ Rustic and Cozy Cabin with Fireplace & Private BBQ - Walk to Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $51,717ADR $471Occ ≈ 30%—

    Booking

  • Fawnskin Forest Haven

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $34,707ADR $152Occ ≈ 63%—

    Booking

Show 23 more
  • TOP RATED- Big Bear Stargazer Cabin with Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $25,632ADR $391Occ ≈ 18%5★ (55)

    Airbnb

  • Walkable Forest Retreat; Pet Friendly & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $46,177ADR $168Occ ≈ 75%4.7★ (39)

    Airbnb

  • Sioux House

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,010ADR $136Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (64)

    Booking

  • Cozy Mountain Escape with Fireplace Charm

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,397ADR $225Occ ≈ 21%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Hot Tub | Fireplace + Peekaboo Lake Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $50,916ADR $356Occ ≈ 39%4.5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Astral at Fawnskin Big Bear Lake Views

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $40,687ADR $314Occ ≈ 36%5★ (191)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lake Chalet | Spring Escape & Patio

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $45,611ADR $248Occ ≈ 50%5★ (36)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • High-Top Lakeview Chateau #2520

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $93,832ADR $413Occ ≈ 62%—

    Booking

  • High-Top Lakeview Chateau | Relaxing Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $81,286ADR $419Occ ≈ 53%4.5★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Happy Tails Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $33,026ADR $152Occ ≈ 60%5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fawnskin Forest Cabin | Hot Tub | Lake | Office

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $61,297ADR $216Occ ≈ 78%5★ (129)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • enjoy a quiet and cozy in cabin in fawnskin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen

    Revenue $5,061ADR $200Occ ≈ 7%2.5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Classic A-Frame with a Designers Touch!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $28,351ADR $230Occ ≈ 34%4.9★ (179)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Forest Cottage with Lake Views and Grill

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $1,743ADR $174Occ ≈ 3%—

    Booking

  • Fawnskin Pines Relaxing Mountain Cottage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $17,130ADR $394Occ ≈ 12%4.5★ (24)

    Airbnb

  • Fawnskin Pines by Big Bear Vacations Charming Mountain Cottage

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $14,669ADR $611Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • "The Little Red Cabin" Big Bear / Fawnskin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $13,281ADR $209Occ ≈ 17%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Fawnskin pines #2259

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $68,691ADR $695Occ ≈ 27%—

    Booking

  • Game room and hot tub *Oso-Cozy Cabin*

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $60,005ADR $220Occ ≈ 75%4.8★ (191)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Forest Cottage w Lake Glimpse & Grill!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $3,858ADR $257Occ ≈ 4%—

    Airbnb

  • National Forest + Fireplace | Walk to Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace

    Revenue $12,156ADR $211Occ ≈ 16%4.3★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Beautiful cabin on the lake.

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $41,226ADR $371Occ ≈ 30%5★ (42)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy ‘lil Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $16,957ADR $169Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (18)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$36,947

NOI

$17,588

Cash flow /mo

-$178

Cash needed

$102,710

Cash-on-cash

-2.1%

ROE (yr 1)

8.5%

Cap rate

5.9%

DSCR

0.89

Year-1 write-off

$84,904

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$27,169

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$2,139
  • Principal paydown$1,877
  • Appreciation at%$8,970
ROE8.5%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,389
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,108
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,847
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$3,738
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,525

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$74,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$11,960
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$27,169

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$230,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$69,000 · 30%

Year-1 deduction

$85,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$27,000

Land 23% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $162,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1947, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $53,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $17,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$52,200
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $7,100
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $5,800
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $2,000
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $100
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $700
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $2,800
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $7,200
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $5,600
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $3,400
  • Appliances (range)listing

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $1,400
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$32,500
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 2.01 allocation

    $7,800
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 2.01 allocation

    $7,500
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 2.01 allocation

    $1,400
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 2.01 allocation

    $15,800
Building, 39-year$161,700
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,900 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $122,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $12,600
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $12,100
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $12,700
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.01 allocation

    $2,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$52,200$32,500$200$84,900
2$0$0$4,100$4,100
3$0$0$4,100$4,100
4$0$0$4,100$4,100
5$0$0$4,100$4,100
6+$0$0$145,000$145,000
Total$52,200$32,500$161,700$246,500

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.