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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

42419 Bear Loop

42419 Bear Loop

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$1,068,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,566 sqft · Listed 20d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1994

Sqft

2,566

Lot sqft

544,500,000

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-09T17:38:52.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$62,274

ADR

$585

Occupancy

29%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$10,701

Confidence

Low (50.16), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$39,376$65,070$77,982
  • Lakefront Cabin • Hot Tub + Game Room + Firepit

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 95 ft

    Revenue $50,515ADR $635Occ ≈ 22%4.6★ (15)

    Airbnb

  • Lazy Bear Manor:Hot Tub!Game Room! Pet Friendly!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 469 ft

    Revenue $74,958ADR $646Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (30)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sunset Mountain Lodge

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $15,772ADR $503Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (44)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakefront Cabin • Hot Tub + Game Room + Firepit

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $73,599ADR $581Occ ≈ 35%3.5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Blue Ridge Cabin | 4 bedrooms+Near the lake/slopes

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $76,045ADR $420Occ ≈ 50%4.8★ (222)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cabin:Stargazing GeoDome Pickleball GameRm Gym

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,008ADR $482Occ ≈ 12%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Cabin: Pickleball, Fishing, Game Room, Gym

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,394ADR $848Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Nautical Cabin | Sauna · Ski Views · Game Loft

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $49,800ADR $581Occ ≈ 23%4.4★ (54)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 2 mins to the Lake, Pool Table + Wrap-Around Deck

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $88,052ADR $655Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (34)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • California Dreaming: Lakeside Cabin Getaway in the Best Location

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $68,225ADR $423Occ ≈ 44%—

    Booking

Show all 48 comps
  • Large Eagle Ridge Cabin / 4 Bd / Close to Lake

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $19,480ADR $499Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (55)

    Airbnb

  • BoardersEagleReserve!PetsOK!HotTub!FullyFenced!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $58,572ADR $858Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Morning Star Luxury Cabin Hot Tub Near Ski Resort

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $49,026ADR $694Occ ≈ 19%4.5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • BIG Lake Views/AC/King Beds/Garage/Balconies/Games

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $49,568ADR $804Occ ≈ 17%5★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • HOT TUB! Multiple Decks! Pool Table! Lake Views!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $74,159ADR $852Occ ≈ 24%4.7★ (81)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game Room! Back Deck! Theater Room! Lake Views!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $72,516ADR $801Occ ≈ 25%4.7★ (42)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Exquisite Mountain Retreat: Lakeviews! Pool Table!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $135,576ADR $754Occ ≈ 49%4.6★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Eagles Landing. Views. Spa. Firepit. Games Galore.

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $88,415ADR $805Occ ≈ 30%4.9★ (76)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Windsong Retreat | 3X2 PROMO | Lake Views. Hot tub

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $53,065ADR $681Occ ≈ 21%4.9★ (61)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hawk Ridge Chalet | Hot Tub, Views and Firepit

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $93,092ADR $717Occ ≈ 36%5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Elegant Big Bear Cabin Half Mi to Big Bear Lake!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $65,084ADR $834Occ ≈ 21%4.9★ (69)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luxury! Hot Tub! Pool Table! Lake Views!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $80,121ADR $576Occ ≈ 38%4★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Majestic Pines Estate Big Bear

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $77,837ADR $521Occ ≈ 41%5★ (48)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Timberline Trail. Views, Hot Tub & Game Room

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $71,600ADR $796Occ ≈ 25%4.9★ (118)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Moose Lodge. Stunning Mtn Views. Spa. Games.

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $39,394ADR $728Occ ≈ 15%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New! Bearadise ~ The Retreat

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $98,585ADR $624Occ ≈ 43%4.7★ (30)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Golden Oak Retreat

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $21,923ADR $792Occ ≈ 8%4.8★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • What A View: Hot Tub! Propane BBQ! Ping Pong!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $81,340ADR $717Occ ≈ 31%5★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Peaceful Cabin Getaway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $25,539ADR $843Occ ≈ 8%4.7★ (12)

    Airbnb

  • BearPaw Retreat - Full Log with lake view

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $35,853ADR $437Occ ≈ 22%4.9★ (97)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Starlight Retreat by AvantStay | Incredible Views

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $39,321ADR $736Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (27)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Eagle Ridge Views-1648 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $86,491ADR $1,275Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • Ideal Location! Home theatre, spa, games & EV plug

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $115,050ADR $700Occ ≈ 45%5★ (94)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Castle Glen Gem: Pool Table! Mountain Views! WiFi!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $56,189ADR $587Occ ≈ 26%4.6★ (52)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • HotTub-Fireplace-BBQ-Decks-Ski / Mtn & Lake Views

    House · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $78,417ADR $618Occ ≈ 35%4.9★ (74)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Starlight Chalet-4b4b/near slope/Game Rm/EV charge

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $21,669ADR $1,031Occ ≈ 6%5★ (77)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury 4 Bd Family Cabin In The Exclusive Castle Glen Estates

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $19,451ADR $659Occ ≈ 8%5★ (151)

    Vrbo

  • Timberline View Estate - Log Cabin with Hot Tub, Pool Table, Sleeps 10, Expansive Deck & Views

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $14,454ADR $722Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Castle Rock. Spa, BBQ, and the Best Views. AC

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $91,700ADR $754Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (90)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub, Game Room, Deck Views | Penticton Lodge

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $70,504ADR $689Occ ≈ 28%4.9★ (78)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pegasus Luxe Mnt Retreat Stunning Views & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $134,463ADR $583Occ ≈ 63%4.8★ (48)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Boulder Estate. Hot Tub in Boulders. Views. Games.

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $69,690ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.8★ (45)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New! Bearadise ~ Hunting Cabin with Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $41,918ADR $199Occ ≈ 58%4.9★ (47)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious Cabin Near Snowplay,Lake & Ski Resorts!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $21,617ADR $562Occ ≈ 11%4.8★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Octagon at Big Bear- Hot Tub + Pool Table

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $65,056ADR $1,946Occ ≈ 9%4.5★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Panoramic Views! Pool Table! BBQ! Decks! Cable TV!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $50,726ADR $430Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (63)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Octagon Big Bear | Hot Tub | Game Room | Views| Pool Table

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $59,618ADR $1,451Occ ≈ 11%—

    Booking

  • Luxe Mountain Home on Big Bear Eagle Preserve

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $75,603ADR $439Occ ≈ 47%4.8★ (353)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$62,274

NOI

$23,442

Cash flow /mo

-$3,802

Cash needed

$332,720

Cash-on-cash

-13.7%

ROE (yr 1)

-2.0%

Cap rate

2.2%

DSCR

0.34

Year-1 write-off

$197,262

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$63,124

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$45,618
  • Principal paydown$6,989
  • Appreciation at%$32,040
ROE-2.0%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)17.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$12,455
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,868
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$3,114
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$13,350
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$5,447

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$267,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$42,720
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$63,124

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$854,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$172,000 · 20%

Year-1 deduction

$197,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$63,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $682,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 2,566 sq ft, built 1994, 4 bd / 3.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace, flooring types).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $147,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $47,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$142,300
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,400 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $18,800
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $9,300 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $15,400
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,500 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $7,400
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $700
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $2,500
  • Window coverings (26)default

    $6,500 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $10,700
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $16,500 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $27,100
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $14,600
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,400 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $8,800
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $13,300
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$52,700
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,500 new × 50% good × 4.11 allocation

    $21,600
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,100 new × 50% good × 4.11 allocation

    $20,800
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,500 new × 50% good × 4.11 allocation

    $5,200
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,500 new × 50% good × 4.11 allocation

    $5,200
Building, 39-year$682,300
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $278,400 new × 47% good × 4.11 allocation

    $534,000
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $28,900 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $47,500
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $29,800 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $49,000
  • HVACdefault

    $28,900 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $47,500
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 4.11 allocation

    $4,300

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$142,300$52,700$2,200$197,300
2$0$0$17,500$17,500
3$0$0$17,500$17,500
4$0$0$17,500$17,500
5$0$0$17,500$17,500
6+$0$0$610,200$610,200
Total$142,300$52,700$682,300$877,400

The building's share of the price ($854,000) is 4.1x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($208,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.