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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

7605 Churn Creek Rd

7605 Churn Creek Rd

Redding, CA 96002

$959,900

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,549 sqft · Listed 7d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2004

Sqft

3,549

Lot sqft

215,622

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-22T23:24:41.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$90,931

ADR

$437

Occupancy

57%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$14,638

Confidence

Low (20.95), 20 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$35,483$66,356$116,608

  • Evergreen Retreat | Spacious + family friendly

    House · 5 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.1 mi

    Revenue $79,913ADR $540Occ ≈ 41%4.8★ (30)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • La Rinconada Place

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.1 mi

    Revenue $112,596ADR $509Occ ≈ 61%5★ (2)

    Booking

  • Pool | HT | Sauna | Gym | Central | Luxe Linens

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.2 mi

    Revenue $108,207ADR $500Occ ≈ 59%5★ (49)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Rivercrest Branch House | Spacious + Bright

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 2.7 mi

    Revenue $48,988ADR $390Occ ≈ 34%4.6★ (13)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Rivercrest Branch House

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.7 mi

    Revenue $57,344ADR $364Occ ≈ 43%4.7★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Belle Maison Pet & Family Friendly MidTerm Stays

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.8 mi

    Revenue $20,624ADR $339Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Foosball+King Bed Costco Closeby Huge Master Suite

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 2.8 mi

    Revenue $39,788ADR $269Occ ≈ 41%4.2★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large 4 bedroom w/ play space, office, 3 king beds

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 2.8 mi

    Revenue $43,431ADR $243Occ ≈ 49%5★ (39)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Riverhouse + Cottage | Massive Pool + Hot Tub | EV

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.9 mi

    Revenue $162,007ADR $797Occ ≈ 56%4.8★ (75)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Riverfront Estate | Pool & Hot Tub | 2 ADUs + EV

    House · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 2.9 mi

    Revenue $169,402ADR $1,176Occ ≈ 39%4.5★ (8)

    Airbnb

Show all 20 comps

  • Dog Friendly + Canopy Lit Pool + 2 Masters w/Kings

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 3.0 mi

    Revenue $84,114ADR $355Occ ≈ 65%4.8★ (161)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Large Redding, CA Oasis

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 15 · 3.1 mi

    Revenue $4,293ADR $505Occ ≈ 2%4★ (6)

    AirbnbBooking

  • "GOOD VIBE" Magnificent home away from home!

    House · 6 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 3.1 mi

    Revenue $50,625ADR $268Occ ≈ 52%4.8★ (105)

    Airbnb

  • Spacious 5-bedrooms house in fabulous Redding with Swimming pool 12 beds,3 bath

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 3.1 mi

    Revenue $22,569ADR $561Occ ≈ 11%4.4★ (3)

    Vrbo

  • River Estate-Luxury Pool, Spa

    House · 6 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 3.2 mi

    Revenue $240,689ADR $1,539Occ ≈ 43%4.3★ (7)

    Vrbo

  • Large 5 bedroom house South Redding, great location,

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 15 · 3.2 mi

    Revenue $16,240ADR $435Occ ≈ 10%4.5★ (21)

    Vrbo

  • Casita Shasta: Spacious Poolside Retreat w/ Spa

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 3.3 mi

    Revenue $75,368ADR $395Occ ≈ 52%4.9★ (59)

    Airbnb

  • House+ADU+Pool + RV/Boat Parking

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 3.3 mi

    Revenue $1,078ADR $433Occ ≈ 1%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • *Oasis Place* game room • heated pool • hot tub

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 3.4 mi

    Revenue $128,642ADR $592Occ ≈ 60%4.9★ (256)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The W Resort Outdoor Kitchen Pool Hot Tub Oasis

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 3.4 mi

    Revenue $140,115ADR $610Occ ≈ 63%4.8★ (37)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$90,931

NOI

$45,096

Cash flow /mo

-$1,415

Cash needed

$304,871

Cash-on-cash

-5.6%

ROE (yr 1)

5.9%

Cap rate

4.7%

DSCR

0.73

Year-1 write-off

$148,124

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$47,400

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$16,975
  • Principal paydown$6,281
  • Appreciation at%$28,797
ROE5.9%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)21.5%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$18,186
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$2,728
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$4,547
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$11,999
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$5,615

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$239,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$38,396
  • Furnishing (bought new)$26,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$47,400

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$769,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$120,000 · 16%

Year-1 deduction

$148,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$47,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $650,000 over 39 years · new furniture $27,000

Based on: 3,549 sq ft, built 2004, 5 bd / 4.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (patio, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $117,000 in year 1 (12% short-life, $38,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$95,100

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $13,600 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $11,100

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $11,100 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $9,100

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $6,200 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $5,100

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $600 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $500

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $1,500

  • Window coverings (35)default

    $8,800 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $7,200

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (67% of floors)listing

    $15,200 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $12,500

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $10,600 new × 56% good × 2.05 allocation

    $12,100

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $6,400 new × 56% good × 2.05 allocation

    $7,300

  • Appliances (range, dishwasher)listing

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $2,300

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $26,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $26,500
15-year land improvements$50,900

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $12,400 new × 50% good × 2.05 allocation

    $12,600

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $11,900 new × 50% good × 2.05 allocation

    $12,200

  • Patioslisting

    $16,000 new × 50% good × 2.05 allocation

    $16,400

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $3,500 new × 50% good × 2.05 allocation

    $3,600

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.05 allocation

    $6,100
Building, 39-year$649,800

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $385,400 new × 63% good × 2.05 allocation

    $499,800

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $40,000 new × 56% good × 2.05 allocation

    $45,900

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $42,300 new × 56% good × 2.05 allocation

    $48,500

  • HVACdefault

    $40,000 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $32,700

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $7,600 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $6,200

  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 2.05 allocation

    $4,300

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 2.05 allocation

    $12,300

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$95,100$50,900$2,100$148,100
2$0$0$16,700$16,700
3$0$0$16,700$16,700
4$0$0$16,700$16,700
5$0$0$16,700$16,700
6+$0$0$581,000$581,000
Total$95,100$50,900$649,800$795,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.