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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

39237 Cedar Dell Rd

39237 Cedar Dell Rd

Fawnskin, CA 92333

$399,999

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,428 sqft · Listed 23d ago

View on Realtor.com →

Year built

1955

Sqft

1,428

Lot sqft

8,499

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-06T17:53:40.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$53,711

ADR

$248

Occupancy

59%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$9,575

Confidence

Low (44.74), 11 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$28,986$49,453$72,065

  • Game room and hot tub *Oso-Cozy Cabin*

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 341 ft

    Revenue $56,252ADR $225Occ ≈ 68%4.8★ (187)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Lake & Forest Cabin | Hot Tub & Office

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $61,626ADR $215Occ ≈ 79%5★ (122)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Eagles! Hot Tub | Screened Porch | Pets Free

    Tiny house · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $84,168ADR $337Occ ≈ 68%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • The Astral at Fawnskin Big Bear Lake Views

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $39,102ADR $314Occ ≈ 34%5★ (190)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lake Chalet | Spring Escape & Patio

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $43,891ADR $244Occ ≈ 49%5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountaintop Chalet Big Bear Lake Breathtaking View

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $13,609ADR $368Occ ≈ 10%4.9★ (49)

    Airbnb

  • Modern Retro Cabin w/ Spa And The Best Vibes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $49,453ADR $355Occ ≈ 38%4.5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fisherman's Retreat on Big Bear Lake's North Shore

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $18,870ADR $216Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (153)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • High-Top Lakeview Chateau #2520

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $90,511ADR $393Occ ≈ 63%—

    Booking

  • High-Top Lakeview Chateau | Relaxing Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $82,503ADR $416Occ ≈ 54%4.5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 11 comps

  • Cozy Mountain Escape with Fireplace Charm

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $14,395ADR $225Occ ≈ 18%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$53,711

NOI

$28,032

Cash flow /mo

$181

Cash needed

$138,000

Cash-on-cash

1.6%

ROE (yr 1)

12.2%

Cap rate

7.0%

DSCR

1.08

Year-1 write-off

$95,533

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$30,570

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)$2,166
  • Principal paydown$2,618
  • Appreciation at%$12,000
ROE12.2%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)34.3%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$10,742
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,611
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,686
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$5,000
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,040

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$100,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$16,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$22,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$30,570

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$261,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$73,000 · 28%

Year-1 deduction

$96,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$31,000

Land 35% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $188,000 over 39 years · new furniture $22,000

Based on: 1,428 sq ft, built 1955, 2 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fence, game room, fireplace, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $60,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $19,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$57,700

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $8,000

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $6,500

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $2,200

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $300

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $800

  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $3,100

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $3,700 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $3,300

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $6,200

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $3,700

  • Appliances (range)listing

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $1,600

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000

  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$37,200

  • Paving: driveway & walks (gravel)listing

    $2,400 new × 50% good × 2.23 allocation

    $2,600

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 2.23 allocation

    $8,400

  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 2.23 allocation

    $1,600

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $16,100 new × 50% good × 2.23 allocation

    $17,900

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.23 allocation

    $6,700
Building, 39-year$187,700

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $154,800 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $138,100

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $16,000 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $14,300

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,400 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $13,700

  • HVACdefault

    $16,100 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $14,300

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $5,500 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $4,900

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.23 allocation

    $2,300

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$57,700$37,200$600$95,500
2$0$0$4,800$4,800
3$0$0$4,800$4,800
4$0$0$4,800$4,800
5$0$0$4,800$4,800
6+$0$0$167,900$167,900
Total$57,700$37,200$187,700$282,700

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.