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Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

39207 Waterview Dr

39207 Waterview Dr

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$675,000

4 bd · 3 ba · 2,042 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1978

Sqft

2,042

Lot sqft

9,975

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-11-01T00:34:30.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$57,362

ADR

$482

Occupancy

33%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,750

Confidence

Low (24.37), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$24,121$40,893$74,723

Median revenue of shown comps: $49,517

  • Family Fun Cozy Cabin Game Room Foosball Near Lake

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 128 ft

    Revenue $28,706ADR $726Occ ≈ 11%3.5★ (2)

    Delisted

  • Crystal Pines #2605

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 128 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $30,357ADR $563Occ ≈ 15%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Beautiful rustic abode with private hot tub, BBQ, yard, pool table and more!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 302 ft

    Revenue $8,279ADR $517Occ ≈ 4%5★ (1)

    Delisted

  • Beautiful rustic abode with private hot tub, BBQ, yard, pool table and more!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 302 ft

    Revenue $16,268ADR $411Occ ≈ 11%3★ (1)

    Delisted

  • Rustic abode with spa BBQ yard and pool table

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 394 ft

    Revenue $59,676ADR $559Occ ≈ 29%4.4★ (20)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Rustic Ridge | Gated, Jacuzzi, Pool Table, Village

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 407 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $26,523ADR $389Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (12)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pool Table! Lake views! Flat Fenced Yard+Foosball!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $98,644ADR $908Occ ≈ 30%3.6★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • The Black Cormorant | On the Lake

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $119,774ADR $1,133Occ ≈ 29%5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • LAKEfront HOT TUB Views! BEST lake location LRN

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $82,585ADR $640Occ ≈ 35%4.3★ (129)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakefront Raccoon's Nest - On the Lake

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $52,096ADR $599Occ ≈ 24%5★ (1)

    Booking

Show 21 more
  • Waterview Lodge. New Addition. Spa. Lake views.

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +3

    Revenue $40,063ADR $670Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (28)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Gorgeous Lake Views. Hot Tub, Dog Enclosed Yard.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $101,452ADR $891Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (172)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 4BR Lakefront Vibes Getaway | Dock, Spa & Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $151,600ADR $769Occ ≈ 54%5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet Friendly! Hot Tub! Outdoor Oasis! Firepit!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $74,723ADR $684Occ ≈ 30%5★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakeview Haven- Luxury Retreat

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $46,677ADR $566Occ ≈ 23%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Lakeview Haven- Game Room + Spa Walk to the Marina

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $49,517ADR $990Occ ≈ 14%4★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • ✦Modern Lakeview Cabin @Big Bear | Hot Tub | BBQ ✦

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $126,602ADR $599Occ ≈ 58%4.8★ (201)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5-Star Lakefront Cabin FIRE PIT Game Room! LE

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $115,201ADR $929Occ ≈ 34%5★ (39)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lake View, Game Room, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $79,816ADR $706Occ ≈ 31%4.7★ (17)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Steps to Lake • Pool Table | Lakeside in Bearadise

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi

    • A/C
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $28,506ADR $458Occ ≈ 17%4.5★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Willow Retro Fun - Spa, Games, Photo Booth, AC

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $24,121ADR $346Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (9)

    Delisted

  • Lakeview Cabin w/Walk to Lake + Slopes + Dog

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.4 mi

    • A/C
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $4,500ADR $642Occ ≈ 2%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Scandinavian chalet close to ski, lake & village

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $34,792ADR $732Occ ≈ 13%4.7★ (27)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakefront -Game Room, Boat Dock, Fire Pit, Hot Tub

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +6

    Revenue $51,863ADR $1,012Occ ≈ 14%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • NEW! Boulder Bay Cabin Retreat

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $2,834ADR $354Occ ≈ 2%4.4★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Bay Views-7mins walk to lake-SPA & BBQ-Home Cinema

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $58,764ADR $630Occ ≈ 26%5★ (191)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Designer Cabin - 3 min walk to Lake & Private Dock

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $39,262ADR $547Occ ≈ 20%5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Willow Playhouse | Spa, Games, Photo Booth, AC

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $6,818ADR $279Occ ≈ 7%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Boulder Landing|EV Charger, Private Dock, Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $52,324ADR $558Occ ≈ 26%5★ (19)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Unwind in a Serene Mountain Lodge with Lake Views!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $40,470ADR $399Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (210)

    Airbnb

  • Near the Lake!Breathtaking Views! Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $124,254ADR $842Occ ≈ 40%4.9★ (46)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$57,362

NOI

$26,233

Cash flow /mo

-$1,525

Cash needed

$224,750

Cash-on-cash

-8.1%

ROE (yr 1)

2.8%

Cap rate

3.9%

DSCR

0.59

Year-1 write-off

$148,666

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$47,573

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$18,301
  • Principal paydown$4,237
  • Appreciation at%$20,250
ROE2.8%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$11,472
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,721
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,868
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$8,438
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,443

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$168,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$27,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$29,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$47,573

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$506,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$119,000 · 24%

Year-1 deduction

$149,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$48,000

Land 25% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $387,000 over 39 years · new furniture $29,000

Based on: 2,042 sq ft, built 1978, 4 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (patio, fence, game room, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $112,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $36,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$92,000
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,300 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $13,000
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $10,500 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $13,300
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,600 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $4,500
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $600
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $1,900
  • Window coverings (20)default

    $5,000 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $6,300
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,000 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $10,100
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,800 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $6,100
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $7,200
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$56,200
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $9,400 new × 50% good × 3.16 allocation

    $14,800
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,000 new × 50% good × 3.16 allocation

    $14,200
  • Patioslisting

    $9,200 new × 50% good × 3.16 allocation

    $14,500
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,000 new × 50% good × 3.16 allocation

    $3,200
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.16 allocation

    $9,500
Building, 39-year$387,000
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $221,200 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $279,600
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $23,000 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $29,100
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $23,200 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $29,300
  • HVACdefault

    $23,000 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $29,100
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $13,100 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $16,600
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.16 allocation

    $3,300

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$92,000$56,200$400$148,700
2$0$0$9,900$9,900
3$0$0$9,900$9,900
4$0$0$9,900$9,900
5$0$0$9,900$9,900
6+$0$0$346,900$346,900
Total$92,000$56,200$387,000$535,300

The building's share of the price ($506,000) is 3.2x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($160,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.