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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1985 Golden Rod Ave

1985 Golden Rod Ave

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$949,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,003 sqft · Listed 26d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2006

Sqft

5,003

Lot sqft

29,063

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-03T16:49:13Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$80,572

ADR

$858

Occupancy

26%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$11,019

Confidence

Low (22.24), 7 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$40,588$50,499$95,472
  • Steel Pine As Seen On TV * Immaculate Views & SPA

    Cabin · 5 bd · 5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $141,066ADR $1,323Occ ≈ 29%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Steel Pine Lodge A Rustic Mountain Retreat Views

    Vacation home · 5 bd · 5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.9 mi

    Revenue $138,933ADR $1,358Occ ≈ 28%—

    Booking

  • VIEWS! Hot Tub! Game Room! Close to Slopes/Lake WB

    Cabin · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 1.8 mi

    Revenue $5,700ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.5★ (54)

    Airbnb

  • VIEW! Hot Tub! Game Room! 3000 sq ft! 3 Floors BSP

    Cabin · 5 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.0 mi

    Revenue $42,120ADR $749Occ ≈ 15%4.5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Central AC & Heat • Hot Tub • Pool Table & Arcade

    House · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.0 mi

    Revenue $52,011ADR $672Occ ≈ 21%5★ (14)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub • Central AC & Heat • Pool Table & Arcade

    Cabin · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.1 mi

    Revenue $50,499ADR $612Occ ≈ 23%5★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub! Game Room! Close to Slopes! Epic Views WB

    House · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.1 mi

    Revenue $39,055ADR $693Occ ≈ 15%4.3★ (72)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$80,572

NOI

$38,533

Cash flow /mo

-$1,903

Cash needed

$307,710

Cash-on-cash

-7.4%

ROE (yr 1)

3.9%

Cap rate

4.1%

DSCR

0.63

Year-1 write-off

$130,226

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,672

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$22,833
  • Principal paydown$6,210
  • Appreciation at%$28,470
ROE3.9%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)17.4%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$16,114
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$2,417
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$4,029
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$11,863
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$4,840

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$237,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$37,960
  • Furnishing (bought new)$32,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$41,672

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$892,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$95,000 · 11%

Year-1 deduction

$130,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$42,000

Land 6% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $797,000 over 39 years · new furniture $33,000

Based on: 5,003 sq ft, built 2006, 5 bd / 4.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (game room, fireplace, flooring types, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $98,000 in year 1 (7% short-life, $31,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$95,300
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $16,800 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $11,200
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $13,700 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $9,200
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $8,800 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $5,900
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $600 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $1,200
  • Window coverings (50)default

    $12,500 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $8,400
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $13,000 new × 60% good × 1.68 allocation

    $13,100
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $7,900 new × 60% good × 1.68 allocation

    $7,900
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $5,400
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $26,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $26,500
  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$32,400
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $14,700 new × 50% good × 1.68 allocation

    $12,300
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $14,100 new × 50% good × 1.68 allocation

    $11,800
  • Patiosdefault

    $4,900 new × 50% good × 1.68 allocation

    $4,100
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $4,900 new × 50% good × 1.68 allocation

    $4,100
Building, 39-year$797,200
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $544,300 new × 67% good × 1.68 allocation

    $608,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $56,500 new × 60% good × 1.68 allocation

    $56,800
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $60,700 new × 60% good × 1.68 allocation

    $61,000
  • HVACdefault

    $56,400 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $37,800
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $32,200 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $21,600
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.68 allocation

    $1,800
  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 1.68 allocation

    $10,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$95,300$32,400$2,600$130,200
2$0$0$20,400$20,400
3$0$0$20,400$20,400
4$0$0$20,400$20,400
5$0$0$20,400$20,400
6+$0$0$712,900$712,900
Total$95,300$32,400$797,200$924,900

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.