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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

777 Iris Dr

777 Iris Dr

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$439,000

2 bd · 1 ba · 1,095 sqft · Listed 5d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1973

Sqft

1,095

Lot sqft

8,799

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-24T21:17:55.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$30,091

ADR

$276

Occupancy

30%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,568

Confidence

Low (28.94), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$11,555$20,728$34,202

  • Lucky Bear Cabin

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 13 ft

    Revenue $33,336ADR $268Occ ≈ 34%4★ (1)

    Booking

  • Massive Mtn View Deck at Lucky Bear - Hot Tub, AC!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 26 ft

    Revenue $32,755ADR $265Occ ≈ 34%4.7★ (68)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lake Charming Cabin

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 262 ft

    Revenue $17,502ADR $212Occ ≈ 23%4.9★ (166)

    Vrbo

  • Cabin in Big Bear near Village, Lake, Ski Resort

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $21,549ADR $307Occ ≈ 19%5★ (57)

    AirbnbBooking

  • JuniperLodge: Modern Fam-Friendly Cabin w Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $47,831ADR $301Occ ≈ 44%5★ (49)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Meadow-Front Metcalf Bay Cabin | Hot Tub, Air Hockey, Firepit & Lake Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $29,098ADR $555Occ ≈ 14%5★ (0)

    Vrbo

  • Meadow-Front Metcalf Bay Gem #542

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $59,749ADR $1,123Occ ≈ 15%—

    Booking

  • Meadow-Front Metcalf Bay Cabin Hot Tub, Air Hockey, Firepit & Lake Views

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $40,166ADR $912Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • Alpine Cabin | BBQ, Fully Fenced, Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $40,291ADR $182Occ ≈ 61%4.9★ (45)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Meadow-Front Metcalf Bay Cabin | Hot Tub, Games

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $39,623ADR $594Occ ≈ 18%4.7★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 50 comps

  • ✧ Modern, Cozy and Child/Pet Friendly A-FRAME! ✧

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $18,984ADR $299Occ ≈ 17%5★ (210)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Cabin | Pool | Pet-Friendly | Sleeps 8

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,536ADR $192Occ ≈ 2%—

    Airbnb

  • Family Cabin in Big Bear | King+2 Queens | Porch

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,197ADR $149Occ ≈ 2%—

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Family Cabin | Bunk Room | Sleeps 7

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $722ADR $180Occ ≈ 1%4★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Adventure Cabin in Big Bear | Bunk Room | Sleeps 6

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $312ADR $156Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Mountain Lodge Retreat | 2BR | Smart TV |Sleeps 6

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $252ADR $126Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Bear Loft Haven

    Apartment · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $562ADR $281Occ ≈ 1%2★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Jaybird Cabin - Hot Tub, Fenced Backyard, Dogs OK

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,451ADR $181Occ ≈ 5%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Hideaway

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,803ADR $194Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (47)

    Airbnb

  • Blue Bear Lodge Cabin 1-Indulge In Mountain Modern

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,051ADR $228Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (18)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Hot Tub, Near Village/Lake, Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $656ADR $218Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Cabin w/ Hottub, Fireplace, & Yard for Pets

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,352ADR $215Occ ≈ 53%5★ (122)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub Retreat Close to Slopes & Village, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $51,270ADR $327Occ ≈ 43%4.5★ (73)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub, Near Village/Lake - Kelly's Kottage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,071ADR $361Occ ≈ 20%4.5★ (70)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Kelly's Kottage Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,281ADR $434Occ ≈ 16%4.6★ (0)

    Vrbo

  • Jaybird Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,389ADR $324Occ ≈ 10%4.5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Your Own Cabin - Blue Horizon Lodge Cabin 6

    Cabin · 2 bd · 0 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,909ADR $319Occ ≈ 12%5★ (17)

    Airbnb

  • Your Own Cabin - Blue Horizon Lodge Cabin 5

    Cabin · 2 bd · 0 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,162ADR $340Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (21)

    Airbnb

  • Teddy Bear Lodge: Rocky Mtn Log Home! Internet!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $34,490ADR $216Occ ≈ 44%4.8★ (94)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • House sleeps 8 - Blue Horizon Lodge Cabin 9

    House · 2 bd · 0 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,509ADR $465Occ ≈ 8%4.4★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Orchard Family Cabin Near Historic Big Bear Village Walk to Marina

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $48,208ADR $420Occ ≈ 31%—

    Booking

  • Orchard Family Cabin #2560

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $54,886ADR $478Occ ≈ 31%—

    Booking

  • Cozy Cabin w/ Hot Tub-Short Walk to Village & Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,771ADR $335Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (132)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lazy Pines Cabin & Lake House

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,768ADR $177Occ ≈ 43%4.8★ (37)

    Airbnb

  • Updated gambrel cabin with Hot Tub and Fenced Yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,906ADR $319Occ ≈ 17%4.5★ (22)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub! Fenced Yard! Near Lake! Outdoor Living!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $48,468ADR $255Occ ≈ 52%4.7★ (128)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • LUXURY RETREAT NEAR VILLAGE & MARINA

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $32,919ADR $425Occ ≈ 21%5★ (249)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Cabin Near Lake, Slopes & Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,974ADR $288Occ ≈ 27%4.6★ (76)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luxury Retreat-HOT TUB-Near Village & Marina

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $1,895ADR $190Occ ≈ 3%2★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Highland Hideout#2655

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $14,203ADR $326Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • Whispering Pines Nook | BBQ and Deck

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,949ADR $175Occ ≈ 12%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Orchard Family Cabin | Walk to Lake/Village Home

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $36,194ADR $360Occ ≈ 28%4.9★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Five Pines - Beautifully updated gambrel cabin with Hot Tub and Fenced Yard!

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $36,970ADR $288Occ ≈ 35%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Cabin Rental | Mountain Getaway | Big Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $16,262ADR $299Occ ≈ 15%1★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • cottage bigbear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $12,845ADR $244Occ ≈ 14%—

    Airbnb

  • Near the Lake & Village w/ Fireplace & BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $7,702ADR $175Occ ≈ 12%4.3★ (9)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Pet Friendly + Fireplace + Walk to Village & Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $17,738ADR $226Occ ≈ 22%4★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • #2 Large 2 room Suite w/kitchenette .With AC

    Guest suite · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $3,732ADR $284Occ ≈ 4%4.9★ (108)

    Airbnb

  • Private Cabin | Sleeps 8 | Game Room | BBQ

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $30,793ADR $263Occ ≈ 32%4.9★ (62)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Sugar Pine cabin walking distance to the lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $27,254ADR $547Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (74)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$30,091

NOI

$10,398

Cash flow /mo

-$1,499

Cash needed

$149,310

Cash-on-cash

-12.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.3%

Cap rate

2.4%

DSCR

0.37

Year-1 write-off

$150,031

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$48,010

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$17,990
  • Principal paydown$2,873
  • Appreciation at%$13,170
ROE-1.3%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)30.9%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,018
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$903
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,505
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$5,488
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,239

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$109,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$17,560
  • Furnishing (bought new)$22,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$48,010

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$349,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$127,000 · 36%

Year-1 deduction

$150,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$48,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $222,000 over 39 years · new furniture $22,000

Based on: 1,095 sq ft, built 1973, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $103,000 in year 1 (23% short-life, $33,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$95,000

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $11,600

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,700 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $9,500

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,900 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $2,700

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $1,300

  • Window coverings (11)default

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $3,900

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $10,000

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,400 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $9,000

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,900 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $5,500

  • Appliances (range, microwave, refrigerator)listing

    $4,700 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $6,600

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $12,700

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000

  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$54,300

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $6,900 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $12,100

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,600 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $11,700

  • Patioslisting

    $4,900 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $8,700

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $12,300 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $21,800
Building, 39-year$222,100

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $118,600 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $167,800

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $12,300 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $17,400

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $11,200 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $15,800

  • HVACdefault

    $12,300 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $17,500

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $3,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$95,000$54,300$700$150,000
2$0$0$5,700$5,700
3$0$0$5,700$5,700
4$0$0$5,700$5,700
5$0$0$5,700$5,700
6+$0$0$198,600$198,600
Total$95,000$54,300$222,100$371,400

The building's share of the price ($349,000) is 3.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($99,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.