39607 Forest Rd
Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
$1,200,000
5 bd · 4 ba · 3,146 sqft · Listed 1d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
2005
Sqft
3,146
Lot sqft
11,522
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-10-10T19:27:32.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$120,161
ADR
$871
Occupancy
38%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$13,293
Confidence
Low (38.27), 19 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Median revenue of shown comps: $124,690
The Lighthouse
House · 5 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.3 mi
- Free parking
- Wifi
- Kitchen
- Washer
- +1
Revenue $73,440ADR $436Occ ≈ 46%4.9★ (36)
New! Bearadise ~ Lakefront Cabin with Private Dock
House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $34,598ADR $381Occ ≈ 25%3.7★ (18)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lakefront! Gorgeous Views! Game Room! Hot Tub! House
| 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 16 | $110,997 | $926 | 33% | 4.7★ (121) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Shore to Please: Spa!Volleyball Court!Private Dock House
| 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 15 | $171,943 | $1,253 | 38% | 4.3★ (30) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront Retreat! Beach! Dock! Hot Tub! GameRoom! House
| 5 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 14 | $185,637 | $1,329 | 38% | 4.7★ (34) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
The Lighthouse House
| 5 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 13 | $73,440 | $436 | 46% | 4.9★ (36) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
Luxury Lakefront! HOT TUB! Pool Table! EV Charger! House
| 5 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 | $121,895 | $725 | 46% | 4.7★ (35) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront 5star Luxury,Hot tub, game room, DOCK LP House
| 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 16 | $174,306 | $1,400 | 34% | 4.8★ (106) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Hot Tub! Expansive Game Room! Walk to Lake!PetsOK! House
| 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 15 | $86,951 | $760 | 31% | 4.6★ (68) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
New! Bearadise ~ Lakefront Cabin with Private Dock House | 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 | $34,598 | $381 | 25% | 3.7★ (18) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
New! Bearadise ~ Lakefront Cabin with Private Dock House
| 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 | $213,157 | $1,608 | 36% | 3.6★ (18) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Pines & Paddles • Lakefront • Spa • Gaming Loft House
| 5 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 | $175,113 | $1,000 | 48% | 4.8★ (38) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Show 6 more
Stylish Big Bear Lake Home
House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $39,772ADR $601Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (111)
Delisted
House In the heart of Big Bear Lake
House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.7 mi
- Hot tub
- Free parking
- Pets OK
- Wifi
- +5
Revenue $17,356ADR $934Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (4)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stylish Big Bear Lake Home House | 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 | $39,772 | $601 | 18% | 4.8★ (111) | 0.6 mi | Delisted |
Lakefront Paradise | Dock | Hot Tub | Game Room House
| 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 | $127,484 | $905 | 39% | 5★ (52) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
House In the heart of Big Bear Lake House
| 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 | $17,356 | $934 | 5% | 4.8★ (4) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Lakeview Lodge: Lakefront Luxury! Dock & Views! House
| 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 16 | $192,692 | $1,407 | 38% | 4.8★ (32) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Vista Retreat- Outdoor Spa & Pool Table House
| 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 16 | $25,899 | $943 | 8% | 4.3★ (42) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Lakefront Luxury + 4 Suites + Hot Tub + Game Room! House
| 5 bd · 5 ba · sleeps 14 | $203,623 | $1,292 | 43% | 4.9★ (28) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 8) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$120,161
NOI
$62,996
Cash flow /mo
-$1,449
Cash needed
$380,500
Cash-on-cash
-4.6%
ROE (yr 1)
6.8%
Cap rate
5.2%
DSCR
0.78
Year-1 write-off
$208,716
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$66,789
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$17,383
- Principal paydown$7,297
- Appreciation at%$36,000
Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$24,032
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$3,605
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$6,008
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$15,000
- Insurance (STR-rated)$6,120
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$300,000
- Closing costs (4.0%)$48,000
- Furnishing (bought new)$32,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$66,789
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$963,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$175,000 · 18%
Year-1 deduction
$209,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$67,000
Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $787,000 over 39 years · new furniture $33,000
Based on: 3,146 sq ft, built 2005, 5 bd / 4 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, game room, fireplace).
Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $125,000 in year 1 (10% short-life, $40,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $14,100
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$12,700 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $11,500
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$10,400 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $6,100
Decorative trimdefault
$5,500 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $700
Mirrorsdefault
$600 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $2,000
Shelvingdefault
$1,800 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $8,600
Window coverings (31)default
$7,800 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $9,000
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $15,900
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$9,900 new × 58% good × 2.77 allocation
- $9,600
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$6,000 new × 58% good × 2.77 allocation
- $9,000
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $26,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$26,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $6,000
Game-room equipment bought newlisting
$6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $20,100
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$14,500 new × 50% good × 2.77 allocation
- $15,500
Landscaping (typical)default
$11,200 new × 50% good × 2.77 allocation
- $4,300
Patiosdefault
$3,100 new × 50% good × 2.77 allocation
- $49,000
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$35,400 new × 50% good × 2.77 allocation
- $614,900
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$341,300 new × 65% good × 2.77 allocation
- $57,000
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$35,500 new × 58% good × 2.77 allocation
- $59,700
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$37,200 new × 58% good × 2.77 allocation
- $39,300
HVACdefault
$35,400 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $13,500
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$12,100 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
- $2,900
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 2.77 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $118,900 | $89,000 | $800 | $208,700 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $20,200 | $20,200 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $20,200 | $20,200 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $20,200 | $20,200 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $20,200 | $20,200 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $705,800 | $705,800 |
| Total | $118,900 | $89,000 | $787,400 | $995,200 |
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.