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Rate 7.93% = 7.18% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 5) + 0.75% investor premium

767 Cienega Rd Unit B

767 Cienega Rd Unit B

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$419,900

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,359 sqft · Listed 6d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceHigh HOANegative cash flow

Year built

1981

Sqft

1,359

Lot sqft

48

HOA / mo

$645

Furnished

No

List date

2026-11-06T14:35:50.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$19,133

ADR

$156

Occupancy

34%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$3,807

Confidence

Low (25.07), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$11,648$21,784$37,216

Median revenue of shown comps: $23,011

  • Boulder Bear Lakeside Condo- Big Bear Modern Retreat

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0 ft

    Revenue $5,224ADR $373Occ ≈ 4%—

    Booking

  • Boulder Bear Lakeside Condo- Woodland Retreat

    Apartment · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 43 ft

    Revenue $58,425ADR $1,021Occ ≈ 16%3.2★ (4)

    AirbnbBooking

  • 3 bdrm Condo close to Marina & Village!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 75 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $30,951ADR $257Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (36)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cienega Getaway Lakeside Townhouse at Big Bear

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 95 ft

    Revenue $56,367ADR $636Occ ≈ 24%4.5★ (19)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Bayshore - Spacious condo within walking distance to all Big Bear has to offer!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 128 ft

    Revenue $41,755ADR $356Occ ≈ 32%—

    Booking

  • Big Bear G5 Getaway 3+2 Condo in Boulder Bay w/SPA

    Townhouse · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 148 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $7,318ADR $314Occ ≈ 6%3.5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Modern Cozy TownHome w/pools w/hot tubs

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 148 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $1,965ADR $245Occ ≈ 2%4.8★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • ClosetoSkiing,Lake&Village!CommualPool/Spa/Dock!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 223 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $37,216ADR $236Occ ≈ 43%5★ (44)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Restmoore Big Bear | Boulder Bay Condo | Pool, Spa, Ski Shuttle, Remote Office

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 243 ft

    Revenue $19,491ADR $531Occ ≈ 10%—

    Booking

  • Pool, jacuzzi, marina, on the lake! Close to town!

    Townhouse · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 256 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $26,536ADR $200Occ ≈ 36%4.8★ (133)

    Airbnb

Show 31 more
  • Relaxing Restmoore Townhouse at Big Bear Lake

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 266 ft

    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $23,011ADR $286Occ ≈ 22%4.5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet-friendly lakefront condo with fireplace, community pool, hot tub + more!

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 289 ft

    Revenue $27ADR $0Occ ≈ —3.4★ (5)

    Delisted

  • Lakefront Condo: Pools, Hot Tubs & Walk to Marina

    Apartment · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 384 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +2

    Revenue $5,157ADR $222Occ ≈ 6%4★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Amazing 3BR/2BA Lakefront Condo! Close to Village!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 400 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $26,418ADR $295Occ ≈ 25%4.8★ (34)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy 3BR Knotty Pine, Near Lake & Trails, Deck

    Apartment · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 417 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $14,147ADR $207Occ ≈ 19%5★ (11)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Boulder Bay | Pool + Tennis | Walk to Lake

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 427 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $13,747ADR $273Occ ≈ 14%4.3★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakefront Complex | Pools + Hot Tubs + Fireplace

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 486 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $11,648ADR $329Occ ≈ 10%4.4★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pines Haven- Close to Marinas and Shopping

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $12,268ADR $509Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Lakefront Retreat, Views & Fireplace

    Apartment · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $37,255ADR $234Occ ≈ 44%5★ (37)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Lake | Fenced Yard + Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $15,733ADR $375Occ ≈ 11%5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakefront/Hot Tub/Fireplace/Great Location

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $38,062ADR $381Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (88)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet-friendly lakefront condo with fireplace balcon

    Condominium (condo) · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $22,691ADR $274Occ ≈ 23%4.2★ (15)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Walk to the Lake! Pet Friendly! Pool and Hot Tub!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $30,281ADR $243Occ ≈ 34%4.6★ (37)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakeside Condo with Pool, Hot Tub and Lake View!

    Townhouse · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $21,784ADR $251Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (137)

    Airbnb

  • Grey Squirrel Resort - Rustic Hideaway

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $1,605ADR $225Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Grey Squirrel Resort - Mystical Forest

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $1,220ADR $244Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Peacefull Pines 2, Marina front home

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $19,651ADR $303Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (44)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin with Arcade

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $15,409ADR $215Occ ≈ 20%4.8★ (20)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakeview Pines Retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $2,944ADR $351Occ ≈ 2%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Beary Relaxing Stay. Walk to Lake. Close to Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $29,959ADR $350Occ ≈ 23%4.9★ (42)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Home away from home

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,607ADR $186Occ ≈ 16%4.7★ (198)

    Delisted

  • Spectacular hideaway. Smart TV, BBQ, Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $44,869ADR $355Occ ≈ 35%4.4★ (30)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Newly Renovated Cabin! | 6 Beds | Fenced Backyard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $46,153ADR $210Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (93)

    Booking

  • Woodland Escape

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $23,458ADR $200Occ ≈ 32%2★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Grinning Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $14,350ADR $377Occ ≈ 10%4.4★ (30)

    Airbnb

  • PetFriendly!IncredibleNaturalLandscape!Firepit!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $32,153ADR $326Occ ≈ 27%4.7★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • LakefrontStargazing180° SeeFireworkFromSecludedSpa

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $67,533ADR $330Occ ≈ 56%4.9★ (438)

    Airbnb

  • Rooster's Den #710

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $66,231ADR $682Occ ≈ 27%0.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Rooster's Den ~ Charming house with expansive deck, cable, internet, near Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $50,372ADR $430Occ ≈ 32%1★ (1)

    Booking

  • Rooster's Den Big Bear~ Central Family Chalet

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $31,898ADR $619Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spa ~ Arcade Machine ~ Spacious Yard ~ Glass House

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $69,327ADR $257Occ ≈ 74%5★ (67)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.93% = 7.18% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 5) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$19,133

NOI

-$4,925

Cash flow /mo

-$2,706

Cash needed

$141,271

Cash-on-cash

-23.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-12.2%

Cap rate

-1.2%

DSCR

-0.18

Year-1 write-off

$86,906

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$27,810

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$32,470
  • Principal paydown$2,668
  • Appreciation at%$12,597
ROE-12.2%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$3,827
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$574
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$957
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$7,740
  • Property tax$5,249
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,141

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$104,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$16,796
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$27,810

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$336,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$67,000 · 20%

Year-1 deduction

$87,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$28,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $269,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,359 sq ft, built 1981, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $58,000 in year 1 (11% short-life, $19,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$86,600
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,800 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $11,600
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $11,900
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,400 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $3,100
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $1,600
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $4,600
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,800 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $9,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,100 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $5,500
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $7,500
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $11,900
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
Building, 39-year$268,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $147,000 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $194,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,300 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $20,200
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $14,500 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $19,200
  • HVACdefault

    $15,300 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $20,200
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $8,700 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $11,600
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.30 allocation

    $3,500

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$86,600$0$300$86,900
2$0$0$6,900$6,900
3$0$0$6,900$6,900
4$0$0$6,900$6,900
5$0$0$6,900$6,900
6+$0$0$240,900$240,900
Total$86,600$0$268,800$355,400

The building's share of the price ($336,000) is 3.3x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($102,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.