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Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 15) + 0.75% investor premium

404 Oriole Dr

404 Oriole Dr

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$572,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1960

Sqft

1,406

Lot sqft

7,096

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-10-15T16:19:25.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$40,919

ADR

$413

Occupancy

27%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,494

Confidence

Low (29.25), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$26,148$33,123$63,989

Median revenue of shown comps: $35,919

  • Newly Remodeled - Cozy - Bluebird Haven - 11G / 4C

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,077ADR $419Occ ≈ 19%5★ (15)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to the Lake! Pool Table! Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $63,105ADR $512Occ ≈ 34%4.7★ (175)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large Snowman House + Ski + Village + Lake 4 FUN!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $27,628ADR $498Occ ≈ 15%5★ (57)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game Room! Walk to the Lake & Park. Cute Cabin-HUM

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $47,061ADR $579Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (64)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Summit Haven: Game Room | Sauna | Spa | 1/4 Acre

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $26,097ADR $0Occ ≈ —5★ (15)

    Booking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Wooded Paradise Escape near Lake

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $22,873ADR $216Occ ≈ 29%4.7★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • New! Bearadise ~ Wooded Paradise Escape near Lake

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $31,832ADR $190Occ ≈ 46%4.7★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Summit Haven - Spa - Sauna - Gameroom - 1/4 acre backyard fenced-in

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $139,467ADR $939Occ ≈ 41%5★ (8)

    Vrbo

  • Eagle Point Lake Front/View Log Cabin; LC 20160161

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $99,532ADR $539Occ ≈ 51%5★ (253)

    Airbnb

  • Longhorn Lodge:Spa!ClosetoSnowSummit!PetFriendly!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $31,653ADR $514Occ ≈ 17%5★ (16)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show 19 more
  • Summit Haven: Game Room | Sauna | Spa | 1/4 Acre

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $135,645ADR $1,004Occ ≈ 37%5★ (37)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Spacious Home/Quiet Neighborhood/Family Retreat

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $63,138ADR $508Occ ≈ 34%5★ (46)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Lake | Hot Tub + Pickleball

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $33,236ADR $445Occ ≈ 20%4.5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Relaxing Four Bears Cabin in Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $65,124ADR $1,088Occ ≈ 16%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Log Cabin Lodge: Near Village! Game Tables!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $26,527ADR $449Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (40)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Winter Cabin+HotTub+PetFriendly+SnowSummit!

    Chalet · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $35,919ADR $528Occ ≈ 19%4.5★ (14)

    Airbnb

  • Huge Chalet below Snow Summit. Walk/MTB to lifts

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $46,920ADR $378Occ ≈ 34%4.9★ (245)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Snow Summit | Game Room + Fire Pit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $32,783ADR $659Occ ≈ 14%4.2★ (9)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Kilted Fox | Near Slopes, Spa, Gated, Game Rm!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $54,798ADR $930Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub-Game Room-Walk to Village + Ski Resort-

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $34,105ADR $598Occ ≈ 16%4★ (7)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Walk to Snow Summit | Hot Tub + Pool Table

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $67,334ADR $554Occ ≈ 33%4.5★ (88)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Kilted Fox-By Lake, Spa, Game Rm, 5 Min to Village

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $32,851ADR $363Occ ≈ 25%4.8★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Snow Summit!Game Room!Pet Friendly!HOTTUB!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $44,427ADR $376Occ ≈ 32%4.7★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 4th House from Snow Summit! Walk to the Ski Lifts

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $73,560ADR $472Occ ≈ 43%5★ (64)

    Airbnb

  • Mancave. Steps to Summit Resort. Spa and BBQ.

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $82,790ADR $485Occ ≈ 47%4.9★ (543)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • TurtleBear by AvantStay | Mins to Lake and Slopes

    Cabin · 4 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $1,151ADR $383Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Amazing 4-bedroom cabin walking distance to Snow Summit. Pool table and hot tub.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $2,647ADR $414Occ ≈ 2%—

    Vrbo

  • Splash Mountain Big Bear~Summertime Pool~Spa~Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $64,273ADR $893Occ ≈ 20%4.5★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Gazebo + Ping Pong | Minutes to Lake & Snow Summit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $31,143ADR $417Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 15) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$40,919

NOI

$16,052

Cash flow /mo

-$1,855

Cash needed

$165,880

Cash-on-cash

-13.4%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.0%

Cap rate

2.8%

DSCR

0.42

Year-1 write-off

$158,882

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$50,842

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$22,261
  • Principal paydown$3,478
  • Appreciation at%$17,160
ROE-1.0%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$8,184
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,228
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,046
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,461
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,917

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$143,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$22,880
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$50,842

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$459,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$159,000 · 35%

Year-1 deduction

$159,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$51,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $301,000 over 39 years

Based on: 1,406 sq ft, built 1960, 4 bd / 1.5 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, patio, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $99,000 in year 1 (21% short-life, $32,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$77,500
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $13,300
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $10,900
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $3,700
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $200
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $2,200
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $5,200
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $13,500
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $10,300
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $6,200
  • Appliances (range)listing

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $2,700
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $23,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $9,200
15-year land improvements$81,100
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 3.74 allocation

    $14,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 3.74 allocation

    $14,000
  • Patioslisting

    $6,300 new × 50% good × 3.74 allocation

    $11,800
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 3.74 allocation

    $29,500
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.74 allocation

    $11,200
Building, 39-year$300,900
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $152,000 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $227,100
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $23,600
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,100 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $22,600
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $23,700
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.74 allocation

    $3,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$77,500$81,100$300$158,900
2$0$0$7,700$7,700
3$0$0$7,700$7,700
4$0$0$7,700$7,700
5$0$0$7,700$7,700
6+$0$0$269,700$269,700
Total$77,500$81,100$300,900$459,400

The building's share of the price ($450,000) is 3.7x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($121,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.