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Rate 8.07% = 7.32% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 22) + 0.75% investor premium

42934 Falls Ave

42934 Falls Ave

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$599,000

2 bd · 2 ba · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1979

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

2,500

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-10-23T23:22:41.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$25,884

ADR

$178

Occupancy

40%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,122

Confidence

Low (22.16), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$9,901$20,216$31,587

Median revenue of shown comps: $22,625

  • Trophy Treehouse Walk to Ski Slopes, Golf, Pets ok

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 7 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $27,397ADR $171Occ ≈ 44%4.8★ (71)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Wolf Cub Cabin#1946

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 180 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $8,150ADR $319Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (25)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Wolf Cub Cabin- Resort Cozy Cabin- Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 213 ft

    Revenue $44,016ADR $456Occ ≈ 26%4.5★ (56)

    Booking

  • Beautiful spacious cabin with amazing views, BBQ, Hot Tub, a walk to ski slopes,

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 220 ft

    Revenue $122ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.8★ (30)

    Delisted

  • Beautiful spacious cabin with amazing views, BBQ, Hot Tub, a walk to ski slopes,

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 220 ft

    Revenue $2,488ADR $200Occ ≈ 3%—

    Delisted

  • Walk to Bear Mtn | Fireplace + Forest Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 240 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $14,051ADR $255Occ ≈ 15%4.4★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Bear Mountain Cabin Hot Tub Walk Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 5 · 253 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $66,329ADR $239Occ ≈ 76%4.9★ (85)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Lake Cabin Near Ski Slopes, Golf, Cozy

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 266 ft

    Revenue $17,301ADR $268Occ ≈ 18%—

    Booking

  • Walk to Bear Mountain + Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 282 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $19,307ADR $210Occ ≈ 25%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Stylish Pet Friendly Cabin, Walk to the Slopes, Golf and Zoo

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 299 ft

    Revenue $19,431ADR $164Occ ≈ 32%5★ (2)

    Delisted

Show 36 more
  • Walk to Zoo, Mt Biking & Trails - Cozy Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 299 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $26,887ADR $178Occ ≈ 41%4.9★ (331)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hibernation Station - Walk to Bear Mountain!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 322 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $31,587ADR $190Occ ≈ 46%4.9★ (456)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Mountain Hideaway, Cabin w Spa

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 335 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +2

    Revenue $50,866ADR $214Occ ≈ 65%4.8★ (674)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • TreeLicious | Jacuzzi, Cozy Chalet close to Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 410 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $61,384ADR $227Occ ≈ 74%4.7★ (79)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • A-frame backs the forest,Walk to Slopes, Hot Tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 423 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen

    Revenue $54,523ADR $268Occ ≈ 56%4.9★ (282)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Black Pine Cabin w/Jacuzzi, 5 min to Bear Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 482 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $24,811ADR $259Occ ≈ 26%5★ (86)

    Airbnb

  • Charming Hot Tub Retreat Near Bear Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $27,922ADR $239Occ ≈ 32%4.5★ (71)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pine Rock Cabin- Game room with pool table & bar

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $14,504ADR $386Occ ≈ 10%5★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Beautiful ViewsBBQHot TubCabin close to ski

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $23,889ADR $276Occ ≈ 24%5★ (7)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Condo on Golf Course! Walk to Bear! Pets! Views!

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $34,613ADR $176Occ ≈ 54%4.7★ (28)

    Airbnb

  • Bit of Heaven | Golf View, Spa, Dogs Ok, Cent AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $72,753ADR $225Occ ≈ 89%4.9★ (63)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Little Pine Chalet | on Golf Course | walk to ski

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $37,766ADR $514Occ ≈ 20%5★ (18)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet Friendly! Walk to Bear Mtn & Golf Course!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $26,114ADR $206Occ ≈ 35%4.8★ (80)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub Under the Stars, Backs to Trails, Pet

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $8,425ADR $223Occ ≈ 10%4.9★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Grant's Great Outdoors

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $8,528ADR $370Occ ≈ 6%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walking distance to Bear Mtn!PoolTable!EV Charger!

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +3

    Revenue $26,610ADR $267Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (18)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Moonridge Retreat: Walk to Ski & Golf

    Townhouse · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $22,341ADR $444Occ ≈ 14%3.9★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Golf Inn Resort Townhouse by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,929ADR $337Occ ≈ 12%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Aspen House • Near Bear Mtn • Dog friendly

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $42,635ADR $221Occ ≈ 53%4.8★ (94)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A-Frame Cabin with Hot Tub & Mountain Views

    Chalet · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,750ADR $192Occ ≈ 51%4.2★ (32)

    Airbnb

  • Golf Course Views! Walking Distance to Bear Mtn!

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $8,647ADR $281Occ ≈ 8%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Awesome View!modern decor Walk to Resort + Spa!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $31,949ADR $234Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (130)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy mountain getaway with private spa, BBQ, large deck, a short walk to slopes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $480ADR $160Occ ≈ 1%4.5★ (34)

    Delisted

  • 2BR Goldmine Hideaway | 2 Suites + Fireplace

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $17,258ADR $332Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Cozy Chalet by Bear X

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,677ADR $229Occ ≈ 32%4.5★ (109)

    Delisted

  • Wanderlust Ski 2BR Oasis| Walk to Ski Resort

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $20,216ADR $239Occ ≈ 23%5★ (46)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Romero House

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,350ADR $244Occ ≈ 26%—

    Booking

  • *Best Views*

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $12,457ADR $87Occ ≈ 39%4.6★ (12)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • On Golf Course and quarter mile from Slopes! Dogs OK, Fireplace, Streaming, and

    House · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $618ADR $154Occ ≈ 1%5★

    Delisted

  • On Golf Course and quarter mile from Slopes! Dogs OK, Fireplace, Streaming, and

    House · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,454ADR $220Occ ≈ 3%—

    Delisted

  • 168 Ski and Tee Chalet

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,867ADR $296Occ ≈ 14%—

    Booking

  • Club view pines #2105

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $63,031ADR $379Occ ≈ 46%3.8★ (2)

    Booking

  • Treehouse by Bear Mountain Resort

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,430ADR $332Occ ≈ 12%4.8★ (7)

    Delisted

  • Mountain getaway with spa BBQ deck near slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,909ADR $238Occ ≈ 26%4.4★ (17)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Cozy mountain getaway with private spa, BBQ, large deck, a short walk to slopes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,401ADR $184Occ ≈ 4%—

    Delisted

  • NEW Bear Mountain Views | Hot Tub |BBQ | King Bed

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +3

    Revenue $12,825ADR $240Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (15)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.07% = 7.32% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 22) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$25,884

NOI

$4,793

Cash flow /mo

-$2,919

Cash needed

$173,710

Cash-on-cash

-20.2%

ROE (yr 1)

-7.7%

Cap rate

0.8%

DSCR

0.12

Year-1 write-off

$138,936

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,459

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$35,028
  • Principal paydown$3,701
  • Appreciation at%$17,970
ROE-7.7%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,177
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$777
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,294
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,488
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,055

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$149,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$23,960
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$44,459

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$511,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$139,000 · 27%

Year-1 deduction

$139,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,000

Land 15% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $373,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1979, 2 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $99,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $32,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$96,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $16,500
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $13,500
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $4,500
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $600
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $1,700
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $6,500
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $16,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $12,800
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $7,700
  • Appliances (range, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator)listing

    $5,400 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $10,000
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$41,700
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 4.64 allocation

    $18,000
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 4.64 allocation

    $17,300
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 4.64 allocation

    $3,200
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 4.64 allocation

    $3,200
Building, 39-year$372,700
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,800 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $281,500
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $29,200
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $27,900
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $29,300
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 4.64 allocation

    $4,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$96,800$41,700$400$138,900
2$0$0$9,600$9,600
3$0$0$9,600$9,600
4$0$0$9,600$9,600
5$0$0$9,600$9,600
6+$0$0$334,100$334,100
Total$96,800$41,700$372,700$511,200

The building's share of the price ($505,000) is 4.6x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($109,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.