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Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

1290 Pigeon Rd

1290 Pigeon Rd

Fawnskin, CA 92315

$445,000

2 bd · 1 ba · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1979

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

4,760

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-10-03T21:56:33.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$26,233

ADR

$183

Occupancy

39%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,406

Confidence

Low (33.99), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$12,997$23,591$33,759

Median revenue of shown comps: $23,883

  • *Best Views*

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 62 ft

    Revenue $12,267ADR $82Occ ≈ 41%4.6★ (12)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Treehouse by Bear Mountain Resort

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 125 ft

    Revenue $12,189ADR $332Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (7)

    Airbnb

  • Treehouse by Bear Mountain Resort VRR-2026-0932

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 161 ft

    Revenue $46,975ADR $293Occ ≈ 44%5★ (221)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Modern Chalet one minute walk ski in

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 292 ft

    Revenue $18,182ADR $197Occ ≈ 25%4.5★ (65)

    Airbnb

  • The Bear X Chalet with a Game Room

    Chalet · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 299 ft

    Revenue $28,878ADR $238Occ ≈ 33%4.7★ (140)

    Airbnb

  • Awesome View!modern decor Walk to Resort + Spa!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 328 ft

    Revenue $31,274ADR $233Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (130)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain charm chalet by Bear X

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 338 ft

    Revenue $19,865ADR $210Occ ≈ 26%4.4★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game room chalet by Bear X

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 338 ft

    Revenue $21,466ADR $165Occ ≈ 36%4.4★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • NEW Bear Mountain Views | Hot Tub |BBQ | King Bed

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 407 ft

    Revenue $9,838ADR $236Occ ≈ 11%4.8★ (12)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Meadow Woods Base Camp Ski Lift Condo

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 420 ft

    Revenue $9,882ADR $383Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (11)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show 38 more
  • Bear meadow woods condo #2341

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 436 ft

    Revenue $24,606ADR $396Occ ≈ 17%—

    Booking

  • Ski/Golf/Hike- Bear Mountain Resort Ski Haus Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 449 ft

    Revenue $64,384ADR $323Occ ≈ 55%4.3★ (47)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Cozy Chalet by Bear X

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 479 ft

    Revenue $26,824ADR $231Occ ≈ 32%4.5★ (109)

    Airbnb

  • Club view pines #2105

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 486 ft

    Revenue $59,686ADR $388Occ ≈ 42%3.8★ (2)

    Booking

  • Mountain getaway with spa BBQ deck near slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 515 ft

    Revenue $20,365ADR $238Occ ≈ 23%4.4★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Slopes, Hot Tub, Deck, BBQ

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,759ADR $228Occ ≈ 41%4★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear X chalet walk to chair lift

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $7,366ADR $5,327Occ ≈ 0%4.3★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy mountain getaway with private spa, BBQ, large deck, a short walk to slopes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $480ADR $160Occ ≈ 1%4.5★ (34)

    Vrbo

  • Aspen House • Near Bear Mtn • Dog friendly

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $44,116ADR $219Occ ≈ 55%4.8★ (91)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Mountain Hideaway, Cabin w Spa

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $46,498ADR $192Occ ≈ 66%4.8★ (670)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hibernation Station - Walk to Bear Mountain!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,191ADR $188Occ ≈ 47%4.9★ (453)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stylish Pet Friendly Cabin, Walk to the Slopes, Golf and Zoo

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,136ADR $162Occ ≈ 34%5★ (2)

    Vrbo

  • Cozy mountain getaway with private spa, BBQ, large deck, a short walk to slopes!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,401ADR $184Occ ≈ 4%—

    Vrbo

  • Whispering Pines | Walk to Bear Mountain!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,581ADR $232Occ ≈ 27%5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Lake Cabin Near Ski Slopes, Golf, Cozy

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,717ADR $268Occ ≈ 16%—

    VrboBooking

  • Pet Friendly! Walk to Bear Mtn & Golf Course!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,576ADR $204Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (77)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Romero House

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,661ADR $236Occ ≈ 26%—

    Booking

  • A-Frame Cabin with Hot Tub & Mountain Views

    Chalet · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,345ADR $189Occ ≈ 51%4.2★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Zoo, Mt Biking & Trails - Cozy Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,325ADR $178Occ ≈ 41%4.9★ (330)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Ski Slope Chalet: AC! Hiking & Biking! Bring Pup!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,803ADR $309Occ ≈ 20%5★ (44)

    Airbnb

  • Trophy Treehouse Walk to Ski Slopes, Golf, Pets ok

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,570ADR $171Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (67)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Wolf Cub Cabin- Resort Cozy Cabin- Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $42,753ADR $448Occ ≈ 26%4.5★ (56)

    AirbnbBooking

  • TreeLicious | Jacuzzi, Cozy Chalet close to Slopes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $60,569ADR $226Occ ≈ 73%4.7★ (71)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Wolf Cub Cabin#1946

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $8,543ADR $320Occ ≈ 7%4.6★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Cabin | AC, Hot Tub, Firepit | Near Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,414ADR $255Occ ≈ 49%5★ (55)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Slopes, Fireplace, Deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,620ADR $203Occ ≈ 31%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New Listing Big Bear Condo Near Village & Trails

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $452ADR $226Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beautiful spacious cabin with amazing views, BBQ, Hot Tub, a walk to ski slopes,

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $671ADR $183Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (30)

    Vrbo

  • Beautiful spacious cabin with amazing views, BBQ, Hot Tub, a walk to ski slopes,

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,488ADR $200Occ ≈ 3%—

    Vrbo

  • A-frame backs the forest,Walk to Slopes, Hot Tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $48,165ADR $256Occ ≈ 52%4.9★ (278)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear on the Run

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,997ADR $230Occ ≈ 15%5★ (8)

    Airbnb

  • Majestic Pine Retreat-View/Close to Bear Mountain!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,526ADR $247Occ ≈ 31%5★ (376)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beautiful ViewsBBQHot TubCabin close to ski

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $23,591ADR $277Occ ≈ 23%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Black Pine Cabin w/Jacuzzi, 5 min to Bear Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $24,174ADR $261Occ ≈ 25%5★ (85)

    Airbnb

  • Bit of Heaven | Golf View, Spa, Dogs Ok, Cent AC

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $71,632ADR $223Occ ≈ 88%4.9★ (63)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine Rock Cabin- Game room with pool table & bar

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $14,004ADR $383Occ ≈ 10%5★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Charming Hot Tub Retreat Near Bear Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,143ADR $250Occ ≈ 30%4.5★ (70)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Little Pine Chalet | on Golf Course | walk to ski

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $44,971ADR $514Occ ≈ 24%5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$26,233

NOI

$7,523

Cash flow /mo

-$1,829

Cash needed

$129,050

Cash-on-cash

-17.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-4.5%

Cap rate

1.7%

DSCR

0.26

Year-1 write-off

$107,157

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$34,290

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$21,948
  • Principal paydown$2,771
  • Appreciation at%$13,350
ROE-4.5%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,247
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$787
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,312
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,226
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,270

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$111,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$17,800
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$34,290

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$357,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$107,000 · 30%

Year-1 deduction

$107,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$34,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $250,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1979, 2 bd / 1 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $58,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $18,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$58,200
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $10,700
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $9,100 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $10,900
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $3,000
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $200
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $1,100
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $4,200
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (25% of floors)listing

    $2,300 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $2,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $8,300
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $5,000
  • Appliances (range, microwave, refrigerator)listing

    $4,700 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $5,700
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$48,700
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation

    $11,700
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation

    $11,200
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation

    $2,100
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 3.01 allocation

    $23,700
Building, 39-year$250,400
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,900 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $183,000
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $18,900
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $18,100
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $19,000
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $6,800 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $8,100
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.01 allocation

    $3,200

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$58,200$48,700$300$107,200
2$0$0$6,400$6,400
3$0$0$6,400$6,400
4$0$0$6,400$6,400
5$0$0$6,400$6,400
6+$0$0$224,400$224,400
Total$58,200$48,700$250,400$357,300

The building's share of the price ($351,000) is 3.0x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($116,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.