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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

43365 Primrose

43365 Primrose

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$625,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,232 sqft · Listed 11d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1971

Sqft

1,232

Lot sqft

7,200

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-18T18:39:22.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$33,779

ADR

$302

Occupancy

31%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,158

Confidence

Low (33.1), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,853$27,757$41,408
  • Ski-In & Ski-Out/Designer Interior/Golf/Hiking/EV

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 59 ft

    Revenue $27,210ADR $261Occ ≈ 29%5★ (33)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • SlopeSide • Hot Tub • Arcade • Deck w BBQ+fire pit

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 240 ft

    Revenue $48,582ADR $457Occ ≈ 29%5★ (72)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Alpen Haus w/ Outdoor Sauna, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 256 ft

    Revenue $26,726ADR $416Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (35)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Pine: Walk to Slopes, Mountain Views, Quiet

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 289 ft

    Revenue $19,102ADR $387Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (42)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • *NEW* 3BR Alpen Haus - Sauna, SPA, Fun Arcade Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 345 ft

    Revenue $26,779ADR $364Occ ≈ 20%5★ (2)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Slopeside Cabin Walk to ski slope. Bear Mtn views!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 358 ft

    Revenue $24,513ADR $372Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (80)

    Airbnb

  • Near Bear Mtn Resort•AC•Spa• Sauna•Game Rm•Theatre

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 436 ft

    Revenue $70,958ADR $624Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (25)

    Airbnb

  • Birdsong Cabin: Near Bear Mtn! Spa! Pac-Man Arcade

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 482 ft

    Revenue $33,073ADR $307Occ ≈ 30%4.6★ (47)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Bear Mtn! HotTub! Pet Friendly! Views!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 509 ft

    Revenue $27,757ADR $268Occ ≈ 28%5★ (12)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • HOT TUB! Pool Table! Tesla Charging Station!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 518 ft

    Revenue $41,408ADR $375Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 49 comps
  • Cozy Chalet | Fire Pit |Large Decks | Hiking |BBQ

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $26,250ADR $434Occ ≈ 17%5★ (16)

    Airbnb

  • Near Golf, Zoo & Hiking! Cornhole+Games! Pets Ok!

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $52,327ADR $267Occ ≈ 54%4.8★ (57)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Mt. Retreat Big Bear Lake

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $15,853ADR $302Occ ≈ 14%5★ (3)

    Vrbo

  • *Lassen Paradise Big Bear*Walk to Bear Mountain*

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $46,162ADR $627Occ ≈ 20%4.6★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • "Walk to Slopes" Country 3B2B home, spa.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,515ADR $353Occ ≈ 11%4.7★ (48)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Rustic mountain retreat with private hot tub, game room, in a great location!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $6,866ADR $357Occ ≈ 5%4★ (2)

    Vrbo

  • Rustic mountain retreat with private hot tub, game room, in a great location!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $7,214ADR $252Occ ≈ 8%—

    Vrbo

  • Mountain retreat with spaGamesGreat location

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $30,786ADR $356Occ ≈ 24%3.7★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Birdsong Cabin: Near Bear Mtn! Spa! Pac-Man Arcade

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,420ADR $298Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (21)

    Airbnb

  • Slope Side Retreat- Walk to the Slopes-Pets OK

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $56,240ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.8★ (91)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 2 min From Ski Resort Mountain Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $47,676ADR $219Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (236)

    Airbnb

  • Spa, Game Room/2 fireplaces/200 yards from hiking!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $3,031ADR $319Occ ≈ 3%4.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • ✧ Modern, Cozy and Child/Pet Friendly A-FRAME! ✧

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $33,271ADR $355Occ ≈ 26%4.9★ (110)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub, Game Room, Slope View, Walk to Bear Mtn

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,784ADR $419Occ ≈ 23%4.7★ (29)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Slopes! 3BR Skier’s Cabin | Pets Welcome

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $6,282ADR $315Occ ≈ 5%4★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Steps to Bear Mtn Resort | 2.5mi Snow Summit

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,839ADR $483Occ ≈ 15%4.5★ (11)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3 Bed/2 Bath -Location/Golf/Bike/Walk to Slopes!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $31,644ADR $309Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (33)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Log Cabin*Walk to Ski Resort*Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,719ADR $154Occ ≈ 7%4.8★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Chalet Steps to Bear Mountain, Hot Tub/FirePit, AC

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $9,691ADR $325Occ ≈ 8%5★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Climbing Bear Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $55,880ADR $436Occ ≈ 35%5★ (74)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Novanna Getaway!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $18,065ADR $420Occ ≈ 12%5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Steps to Slopes, Upscale Alpine Beauty, Outdoor Dining, and Hot Tub!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $9,242ADR $350Occ ≈ 7%—

    Vrbo

  • Steps to Slopes, Upscale Alpine Beauty, Outdoor Dining, and Hot Tub!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,576ADR $397Occ ≈ 2%4.9★ (6)

    Vrbo

  • Sledding Fun!+Prime Location!+HotTub!+Treetop

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,790ADR $410Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hidden Pines in Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $47,705ADR $306Occ ≈ 43%—

    Booking

  • 3BR Hidden Mtn Pines | SPA, BBQ, Pool table & AC

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,012ADR $286Occ ≈ 39%4.8★ (46)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Forest-Backed Cabin | Hot Tub & Deck

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $714ADR $357Occ ≈ 1%2★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Mountain~Walk to Slopes~Hot Tub~Firepit~games

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,070ADR $451Occ ≈ 12%4.2★ (21)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family-Friendly Big Bear Cabin Hot TubGame Room

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,739ADR $347Occ ≈ 19%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Buffalo Crossing - Hot Tub, Game Room, Slope View, Walk to Bear Mtn

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $51,435ADR $529Occ ≈ 27%—

    Booking

  • ModernLogHome/Gameroom/Spa/Arcade/5carP/EV

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,056ADR $445Occ ≈ 25%5★ (28)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Tree Top Cabin #2600

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,944ADR $353Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • Upscale Home Walk to SlopesHot Tub

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,650ADR $402Occ ≈ 21%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Summit Cabin- Private Hot Tub🔥Pool Table 🎱

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $54,806ADR $978Occ ≈ 15%4.5★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Mesmerizing Getaway

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,442ADR $350Occ ≈ 11%5★ (149)

    Airbnb

  • Urban Manor: Walk 2 Bear MTN, Spa, Fire Pit

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 15 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $89,023ADR $581Occ ≈ 42%5★ (27)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Refugio at Big Bear - Central Moonridge Retreat w/ Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $90,309ADR $469Occ ≈ 53%—

    Booking

  • Cozy Cabin, Views, Walk to Bear Mountain Resort

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,657ADR $410Occ ≈ 22%4.7★ (141)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Royal Oak Bear Log Home 3BR W Game Loft

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,461ADR $233Occ ≈ 9%4.9★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$33,779

NOI

$10,058

Cash flow /mo

-$2,530

Cash needed

$200,750

Cash-on-cash

-15.1%

ROE (yr 1)

-3.7%

Cap rate

1.6%

DSCR

0.25

Year-1 write-off

$164,806

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$52,738

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$30,356
  • Principal paydown$4,090
  • Appreciation at%$18,750
ROE-3.7%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)22.5%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,756
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,013
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,689
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,813
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,188

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$156,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$25,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$52,738

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$456,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$144,000 · 32%

Year-1 deduction

$165,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$53,000

Land 27% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $312,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,232 sq ft, built 1971, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $101,000 in year 1 (18% short-life, $32,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$99,000
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,500 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $15,000
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $12,300
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,200 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $3,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $500
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $2,100
  • Window coverings (12)default

    $3,000 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $5,300
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $7,900 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $14,000
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,600 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $11,700
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $7,100
  • Appliances (microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator)listing

    $4,300 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $7,600
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$64,900
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,300 new × 50% good × 4.42 allocation

    $16,100
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,000 new × 50% good × 4.42 allocation

    $15,500
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,200 new × 50% good × 4.42 allocation

    $2,700
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $13,900 new × 50% good × 4.42 allocation

    $30,600
Building, 39-year$311,700
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $133,100 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $235,300
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $13,800 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $24,400
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $12,900 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $22,800
  • HVACdefault

    $13,900 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $24,500
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 4.42 allocation

    $4,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$99,000$64,900$1,000$164,800
2$0$0$8,000$8,000
3$0$0$8,000$8,000
4$0$0$8,000$8,000
5$0$0$8,000$8,000
6+$0$0$278,700$278,700
Total$99,000$64,900$311,700$475,500

The building's share of the price ($456,000) is 4.4x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($103,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.