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Rate 7.93% = 7.18% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 5) + 0.75% investor premium

12837 Old Oregon Trl

12837 Old Oregon Trl

Redding, CA 96003

$649,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 2,044 sqft · Listed 7d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1990

Sqft

2,044

Lot sqft

158,123

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-11-05T01:38:44.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$43,716

ADR

$210

Occupancy

57%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,302

Confidence

Low (24.24), 7 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$16,448$45,728$51,238

Median revenue of shown comps: $45,735

  • Redding Retreat Ranch

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.8 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • +3

    Revenue $78,626ADR $517Occ ≈ 42%4.9★ (224)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Romantic Farmhouse 10 min. to Shasta Lake .

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.9 mi

    Revenue $544ADR $272Occ ≈ 1%4.5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub, Game Room, Playset & Fire Pits!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.9 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $3,937ADR $328Occ ≈ 3%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub, Dog-Friendly Yard! 3-Acre Redding Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.9 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +3

    Revenue $45,741ADR $239Occ ≈ 52%4.7★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Beautiful Country House.

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $56,735ADR $291Occ ≈ 53%4.8★ (152)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Shasta House

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 2.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $45,728ADR $190Occ ≈ 66%5★ (88)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.93% = 7.18% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 5) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$43,716

NOI

$16,340

Cash flow /mo

-$2,186

Cash needed

$207,710

Cash-on-cash

-12.6%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.3%

Cap rate

2.5%

DSCR

0.38

Year-1 write-off

$207,434

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$66,379

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$26,235
  • Principal paydown$4,123
  • Appreciation at%$19,470
ROE-1.3%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$8,743
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,311
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,186
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$8,113
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,797

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$162,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$25,960
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$66,379

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$505,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$188,000 · 37%

Year-1 deduction

$207,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$66,000

Land 22% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $317,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 2,044 sq ft, built 1990, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (pool, fence, fireplace, flooring types, septic).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $180,000 in year 1 (32% short-life, $58,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$84,100

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,300 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $10,600

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,400 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $8,600

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,600 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $3,700

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $300

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $1,200

  • Window coverings (20)default

    $5,000 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $5,100

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $13,200 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $13,500

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,000 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $8,200

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,800 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $5,000

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $8,300

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$123,000

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $11,700 new × 50% good × 2.57 allocation

    $15,000

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,000 new × 50% good × 2.57 allocation

    $11,600

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,000 new × 50% good × 2.57 allocation

    $2,600

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,000 new × 50% good × 2.57 allocation

    $2,600

  • Pool (in-ground)listing

    $65,000 new × 50% good × 2.57 allocation

    $83,500

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.57 allocation

    $7,700
Building, 39-year$317,200

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $221,800 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $227,900

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $23,000 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $23,600

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $23,200 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $23,800

  • HVACdefault

    $23,000 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $23,700

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.57 allocation

    $2,700

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 2.57 allocation

    $15,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$84,100$123,000$300$207,400
2$0$0$8,100$8,100
3$0$0$8,100$8,100
4$0$0$8,100$8,100
5$0$0$8,100$8,100
6+$0$0$284,300$284,300
Total$84,100$123,000$317,200$524,300

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.