STR Yield
← Back to deals
MortgageCash

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

46712 Pioneer Town Rd

46712 Pioneer Town Rd

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$999,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,734 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1981

Sqft

3,734

Lot sqft

45,302

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-29T16:44:58.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$68,316

ADR

$827

Occupancy

23%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,991

Confidence

Low (37.86), 7 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$39,509$51,530$122,142

  • Pet Friendly + Pool Table + Fenced Yard

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,274ADR $972Occ ≈ 9%4★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Minnows Big Bear Estate | Game Room · 1.5 Acres

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $42,240ADR $632Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Calico Farm: Ultimate Private escape/ Hot tub/ AC

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $36,778ADR $609Occ ≈ 17%4.8★ (52)

    Airbnb

  • Rancharillo

    Vacation home · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $105,351ADR $1,132Occ ≈ 25%—

    Booking

  • Rancharillo - Homestead Barn, Hot Tub, & Games

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $51,530ADR $684Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (7)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Steel Pine Lodge A Rustic Mountain Retreat Views

    Vacation home · 5 bd · 5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $138,933ADR $1,358Occ ≈ 28%—

    Booking

  • Steel Pine As Seen On TV * Immaculate Views & SPA

    Cabin · 5 bd · 5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $141,066ADR $1,323Occ ≈ 29%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$68,316

NOI

$28,904

Cash flow /mo

-$2,975

Cash needed

$316,210

Cash-on-cash

-11.3%

ROE (yr 1)

0.3%

Cap rate

2.9%

DSCR

0.45

Year-1 write-off

$225,317

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$72,101

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$35,695
  • Principal paydown$6,537
  • Appreciation at%$29,970
ROE0.3%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$13,663
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$2,049
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$3,416
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$12,488
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$5,095

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$249,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$39,960
  • Furnishing (bought new)$26,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$72,101

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$816,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$197,000 · 24%

Year-1 deduction

$225,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$72,000

Land 18% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $620,000 over 39 years · new furniture $27,000

Based on: 3,734 sq ft, built 1981, 5 bd / 3.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $130,000 in year 1 (12% short-life, $42,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$113,200

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $14,000 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $15,500

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $11,400 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $12,600

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $6,500 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $7,200

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $500

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $2,000

  • Window coverings (37)default

    $9,300 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $10,200

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (25% of floors)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $6,600

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $10,900 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $12,000

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $6,600 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $7,300

  • Appliances (range, microwave)listing

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $2,800

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $9,900

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $26,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $26,500
15-year land improvements$110,100

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 2.76 allocation

    $21,900

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $12,200 new × 50% good × 2.76 allocation

    $16,800

  • Patiosdefault

    $3,700 new × 50% good × 2.76 allocation

    $5,100

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $42,000 new × 50% good × 2.76 allocation

    $58,000

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.76 allocation

    $8,300
Building, 39-year$619,500

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $405,700 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $448,500

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $42,100 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $46,600

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $44,600 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $49,300

  • HVACdefault

    $42,100 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $46,500

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $18,000 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $19,900

  • Fireplaces (3)listing

    $7,900 new × 40% good × 2.76 allocation

    $8,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$113,200$110,100$2,000$225,300
2$0$0$15,900$15,900
3$0$0$15,900$15,900
4$0$0$15,900$15,900
5$0$0$15,900$15,900
6+$0$0$554,000$554,000
Total$113,200$110,100$619,500$842,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.